Swiss Gold Vote Coverage Ramps Up

Posted by on November 26th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Media, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

ClockIsTicking

As the non-financial mainstream media begin focusing on Sunday’s Swiss gold referendum, USA Today reports a Bank of America prediction that “the price of gold could jump to more than $1,350 an ounce — an increase of 18%,” if the “yes” vote prevails. And a Guardian article, headlined “Fears that ‘dangerous’ Switzerland referendum could spark gold rush,” refers to a quote by the chairman of the Swiss National Bank, who said during a ‘sermon’ he delivered at a Swiss church, “The initiative is dangerous because it would weaken the SNB.”

But the lion’s share of the Guardian‘s quotes come from precious metals analyst and blogger Koos Jansen, who calls the Swiss initiative “merely part of a increasing global scramble towards gold and away from the endless printing of money,” adding that “While those behind the Swiss initiative have often been portrayed as crazy, they’re merely acting out of fear that their central bank is losing control of its monetary policy, and of the Swiss franc being sucked into this currency war and losing its value.”

SwissGoldCoverageRampsUp

Coin News/SilverSeek:  Precious metals rise as dollar dips, U.S. coin sales gain; Silver – what COT analysis tells us

Gold Silver Worlds:  Algos gone wild?  Gold price went ballistic to $1,450 in less than 20 minutes

Bloomberg/Mineweb:  China’s gold imports rise for a third month on jewelry sales; China 2014 gold demand heading for 2,100 tonnes

SafeHaven/Financial Post  Can gold extend its rally?; 6 reasons to be bullish on gold

Bloomberg:  Platinum & Pallidum – HSBC, Goldman rigged metals’ prices for years, suit says

GATA/WSOP: U.S. Senate report shows how easily banks can rig gold, copper, and other markets; Scale of Wall Street’s commodity holdings are “unprecedented in U.S. history

Metals Hold; Silver Eagles Go For Gold

Posted by on November 25th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, ECB, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverEaglesGoForGoldFollowing Friday’s surge, spot silver and gold ended up and down 0.2% respectively on Monday, with trading said to be quiet ahead of Thanksgiving, and with “investors awaiting news from the OPEC meeting this week and Swiss referendum on Sunday on how the country manages its gold holdings.” And even though the U.S. Mint is still limiting how many Silver Eagles are sold, Coin News reports that the “2014-dated Silver Eagle just hit 41,217,000 for the year and reclaimed a record pace. Silver Eagle sales in record year 2013 reached 40,675,000 through Nov. 24, 2013. The coins last year ended at 42,675,000 in sales.”

See also:

SRSrocco Report/Seeking Alpha: Significant drawdown of U.K. silver inventories due to record Indian demand

SilverSeek: Is COMEX silver being cornered?

Fx Empire/MarketWatch: Hedge funds increase long gold positions; Gold may see ‘decent recovery‘ to $1,400

Gold 321/SafeHaven: The stealth bull market in gold; Why gold is headed much higher

Bullion Star: Total Chinese gold reserves approaching 16,000 tonnes

Zero Hedge:  Deutsche Bank to central banks: “Purchase the gold held by private households“; Ukraine central bank admits gold outflow, calls it “Optimization of reserve structure

Metals Gain as China, Netherlands Surprise

Posted by on November 22nd 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, ECB, Euro, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, Interest Rates, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

ChinaRateCutSuprise

Spot silver gained 1.5% on Friday and gold added 0.9% “after a surprise rate cut by China fueled expectations demand could rise in the world’s biggest consumer” of gold, reports Reuters. “Any measures that accelerate the spending power of the Chinese public are bound to be positive for gold,” said a Mitsubishi analyst, suggesting that it could lead Chinese consumers to “buy more jewelry and investment products.”

DutchGoldSurpriseAlso, or perhaps primarily, boosting gold on Friday was news that the Dutch central bank has repatriated 122 tonnes of gold from the New York Fed’s vaults, with a spokesman for the bank saying that “It is no longer wise to keep half of our gold in one part of the world. Maybe it was desirable during the Cold War, but not now.”

“What’s particularly interesting about this surprise,” according to USA Gold, “is that little-ol’ Holland somehow managed to jump in front of Germany in extracting their gold from the Fed. You may recall that Germany requested back in 2013 that 300 tonnes of gold be repatriated. After nearly two-years, a disturbingly small percentage has actually been returned.”

See also:

Bloomberg/WSJ: Gold, silver rise to three-week highs on China interest-rate cut; Bring on the currency wars

Dan Norcini/Telegraph: China news, ECB roil commodity markets; Mario Draghi – ECB must now raise inflation ‘as fast as possible’

GoldMoney/CNBC: Market report – Better tone for volatile gold; Central banks – The new gold bugs?

Bullion Star:  Switzerland net exports 100 tonnes of gold in October

Zero Hedge/GoldCore: Everything you need to know about the Swiss gold referendum; Swiss gold vote likely tighter than polls suggest

Bloomberg/Jesse’s Café Américain: Fed may limit Wall Street role in commodities; Sen. Carl Levin – Fed enabled banks to elbow way into commodities, manipulate prices

Metals Seen Riding ‘Wave’ Higher

Posted by on November 21st 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

AnalystsSeeMetalsRidingWaveHigher

In a Mineweb article published earlier this week, by Lawrence Williams and headlined “Elliott Wave analyst sees big gold and silver price surge ahead,” Williams reference’s Wikipedia’s definition of Elliott Wave as “a form of technical analysis that some traders use to analyze financial market cycles and forecast market trends by identifying extremes in investor psychology, highs and lows in prices, and other collective factors.”

In addition to the analyst cited by Mineweb, Peter Goodburn, another prominent Elliott Wave adherent is Avi Gilburt, whose articles are regularly published on Seeking Alpha.

Gilburt, who is more an analyst of, than advocate for precious metals, takes up their cause in his latest missive. “I do not often write about the metals on MarketWatch,” he begins, “but have seen too many bearish articles calling for the death to the metals, so I felt compelled to speak up. While many are now saying it is time to sell metals, I will have to disagree. The time to sell your metals was several years ago. Now is the time to start looking to buy them back.”

See also:

Reuters/Coin News: Spot gold rises as price drop tempts physical buyers; Gold futures dip for second day, U.S. Mint sales rise

Bloomberg: Gold heading for longest stretch of weekly increases since July

Sharelynx/Contra Corner: : Chart – Russia adds another 600,000 ozs of gold to its reserves in October; As “sanctions war” heats up, will Putin play his ‘gold card’?

Reuters: Unusual gold moves in Asian hours puzzle jittery traders

Barron’s/MarketWatch: Jeremy Grantham – S&P 500 could gain another 10% before “crashing as it always does“; Man who called last stock crash — Peter Schiff — is already blaming the Fed for the next

The Real News/Time: The power to create money in the hands of the banks; Study suggests banking industry breeds dishonesty

Metals ‘Creep Back’ After ‘Leaky’ Poll

Posted by on November 20th 2014 in CFTC, China, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, India, JPMorgan, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SwissGoldPollDoubt

A poll indicating a drop in support for the “yes” vote in the Swiss gold initiative was initially cited for gold futures falling 1.5% Wednesday morning. But as the above chart shows, investors bought the news and futures ended off only 0.3%, as it was observed that “The clearly leaked results sparked considerable weakness in gold and silver, but once the data was released, markets began to creep back – perhaps questioning the plausibility of such a big swing in such a short amount of time.” And while gold ended slightly down, silver futures added 0.7%.

See also:

SRSrocco Report: U.S. Mint reports on Silver Eagles: Huge demand & weekly rationing

Bullion Star/Peak Prosperity: India precious metals import explodes in October; Eric Sprott – Global gold demand is overwhelming supply

Zero Hedge: How central banks use “gold swaps” to boost their holdings

GoldCore/Sprout Money: Unusual Russian central bank gold buying announcement fuels gold’s rise; Gold Wars – Putin’s mining buddies are stepping up to the plate

NY Times:  U.S. Senate report criticizes Goldman and JPMorgan over their influence in commodities market

ProPublica/NY Sun: Secret tapes hint at turmoil in New York Fed team monitoring JPMorgan; “Too-big” banks – Finally time to break ‘em up?

Wall Street on Parade: Book claims stark parallels between JPMorgan & Gambino crime family

Russia/Ukraine Gold — All In vs. All Gone

Posted by on November 19th 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, Ukraine, USD, Wall Street, Warren Buffett | Be the first to comment!

Russia:UkraineGold

While Reuters pegs Tuesday’s gains in gold and silver to a falling dollar, a Bloomberg article headlines Russia adding to its gold reserves as a major factor in gold topping $1,200 an ounce on its way to a two-week high. “The fact that Russia is buying more gold instead of diversifying into another currency or buying more dollars is a big positive,” said one trader, in response to a report that Russia has purchased about 150 tonnes of gold so far this year, almost twice its 2013 buy, including 35 tonnes since the end of September.

But in Ukraine, according to a Zero Hedge post, the head of the country’s central bank said during a TV interview that “in the vaults of the central bank there is almost no gold left,” adding that there’s “a small amount of gold bullion left, but it’s just 1% of reserves.” Earlier this year the IMF put Ukraine’s gold holdings at 42.3 tonnes, or 8% of total reserves. Zero Hedge concludes: “now that the disappearance of Ukraine’s gold has been confirmed, perhaps it is time to refresh the “unconfirmed” story that a little after the current Ukraine regime took power the bulk of Ukraine’s gold was taken to the United States.”

See also:

Mineweb/SilverSeek: Gold bounces back above $1,200 – will it jump higher?; Gold and silver supply is very tight

Dan Norcini/Sprout Money: Gold taking cues from forex market movements; When will gold’s fundamentals rise to the surface?

Bloomberg: Gold lending rate most negative since 2001 on longer refining

Acting Man/TradePlacer: Wrinkles of the Swiss gold referendum; Impressions of the latest TV debate

Mauldin Economics/Peak Prosperity/Wolf Street: Correction? What correction?; John Hussman – The stock market is overvalued by 100%; Warren Buffet is dumping stocks out the backdoor

Confounded Interest: Fed’s FOMC speeches become more complex over time as Middle Class feels more abandoned

Rutherford Institute/LA Times: Are ‘We the People’ useful idiots in the digital age?; NSA surveillance bill defeated in Senate

Silver’s Million Ounce Monday

Posted by on November 18th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Euro, General Economy, Gold, India, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Warren Buffett | Be the first to comment!

MillionOunceMonday

Although spot gold and silver ended off 0.1% and 0.7% respectively on Monday, as the dollar rose on news overnight, that Japan fell into a recession, more than a million Silver Eagles were sold on the first day the coins were available since going dark almost two weeks ago. “At 40,393,000 coins sold in 2014 so far,” reports Coin News, “there is now just one stronger year in the Silver Eagle’s 29-year history — 2013 at 42,675,000 coins.”

And an argument that silver is showing “Signs of Life,” suggests that despite the “demoralizing” price action since July, recent technical and fundamental activity “could be screaming at us that this is about to change. Increasing physical demand highlighted by a lack of availability of and rising premiums for silver coins and bars coupled with an extension and overbought condition in the gold-silver ratio is significant. Add to that a pair of bullish key-reversal days on consecutive Fridays validated by the same action in gold.”

See also:

Mineweb:: Elliott Wave analyst sees big gold and silver price surge ahead

Mining.com/Bullion Star: India back to being world’s top gold consumer; Who’s feeding China’s gold hunger?

Jesse’s Café Américain/GATA: How many potential owners per ounce of registered Comex gold?; Four key observations from Deutsche Bank’s report on the Swiss gold initiative

BullionVault: Eurozone’s QE “could include gold bullion” to boost inflation

Zero Hedge: Here is your “global recovery” in 24 charts; Mission accomplished – Stocks and homeless kids hit all-time highs

Reuters/PBS NewsHour: The COLA crunch: Why Social Security isn’t keeping up with seniors’ costs; Laurence Kotlikoff’s Social Security advice archive

Down, Up, Up: Metals Spike; Myriad Reasons Cited

Posted by on November 15th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | 1 comment

MetalsSpike11:14:14

After falling Friday morning on an upbeat U.S. retail sales report for October, spot gold and silver roared back to gain 2.5% and 4.4% respectively,” reports Reuters, quoting one metals’ trader as observing that “The early morning pressure was met with significant bargain-hunting, and when the market was unable to continue its move lower, short-covering ensued.”

Reuters also attributes gold’s gains to a “sudden weakening of the dollar,” which is emphasized by Zero Hedge, along with a report that the “yes” vote is leading in polling on the Swiss gold referendum.  Add to that, a money manager tells MarketWatch that “Gold reversed after oil got bid on speculation that OPEC will cut oil output,” while a trader quoted by Bloomberg concurs: “The spike in oil prices acted as a catalyst. There was a lot of fund buying.”

See also:

GoldMoney/Arabian Money:  Alasdair Macleod – Market Report – Is gold turning the corner?; Swiss gold referendum and Russian buying gives gold and silver a rally

GoldCore:  Swiss gold shenanigans intensify prior to November 30 vote

Hard Assets Investor/BullionVault:  Commodity ETF flows: Traders bet on oil & silver, dump GLD; Gold/silver ratio 2015: Can silver rise when gold falls?

USA Gold/Wealth Daily:  Gold capitulation? Not likely; Central banks buying record amounts of gold

Short Side of Long/SilverSeek:  Portfolio update: Bought silver & China; Primary silver miners losing nearly $3.00 for every ounce of production

Marketplace/The Guardian: It won’t be easy for ISIS to create its own currency

Marc Faber: Physical Gold Trumps Mining Shares

Posted by on November 14th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, USD, Wall Street | 1 comment

BuyGoldYouCanHold

In a subscriber-only ETF.com interview, excerpted by Hard Assets Investor, Marc Faber weighs in on where gold’s headed and why he prefers the end product over the companies that mine it:

Q:  Gold plunged immediately after the [Oct. 31] BoJ announcement [that it would expand its asset purchases], which came only days after the Federal Reserve announced the end of QE. Where do you see gold headed in 2015?

Faber: I think it will go up. But can it go down first? Yes. In general, I would say the game that central bankers are playing is very clear: They start out with QE1 in the U.S., and then that forced essentially other central banks to do the same, to also go QE. They’re kind of passing each other the ball. One stops, the other one starts. It’s basically a game designed to kill the purchasing power of paper money. I’m not sure they’re aware of it, but in my view, this is the beginning of the end of paper money in this century.

And asked about physical gold vs. mining shares, Faber says: In general, my advice to investors is to own physical gold and not gold mining shares. Because in a disaster scenario, you don’t know what financial assets will be worth, whereas physical gold is in your possession.”…Read more>>>

See also:

Bloomberg/24/7 Wall St.:  Gold inches up, silver flat, as jobless claims rise more than forecast

Dan Norcini/WGC:  World Gold Council issues its latest report

Acting Man:  Gold market sentiment – A contrarian’s dream?

Forbes/TradePlacer:  Are small investors right about silver?; Ted Butler to silver miners – COMEX is responsible for low silver prices

Telegraph/RBTH:  Putin stockpiles gold as Russia prepares for economic war

Gold Market Macro: Eastern physical demand versus Western financial supply – who will win out?

Silver Bears Melting Away? Swap Gold for Silver?

Posted by on November 13th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, General Economy, Gold, India, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | 1 comment

SilverBearsMeltingAwayAs it’s argued that the silver bears are running out of steam, or already have, but with the gold/silver ratio still above 74 as of Wednesday, Numismaster‘s Patrick Heller raises the prospect of swapping your gold for silver. He points out that the ratio “has been in the 50s much of the time over the past few years,” and he expects “a long-term equilibrium to hit somewhere around 35:1 to 40:1 between the two metals.” That said, Heller presents a number of well thought-out factors to consider, and comes down on the side of “a definite maybe,” depending on the circumstances of the trade and your current holdings. And he concludes by emphasizing that the swapping question “is different than asking if one should own any precious metals at all. A decision to own physical gold or silver is what I think of as buying insurance against the risk of calamities with paper assets such as stocks, bonds and currencies.”

See also:

SilverSeek: Gold and silver end slightly lower; Gold loses luster as retail investors look to silver

Bloomberg/GATA/Jesse’s Café Américain:  Six banks to pay $4.3 billion in first wave of currency-rigging penalties

Reuters/Arabian Money:  Swiss regulator flags attempt to manipulate bullion benchmarks; UBS fined for silver price manipulation, so this is now a matter of fact not speculation

BullionVault/Bullion DeskGood news for gold bulls from the LBMA’s near bears; Fragmentation of precious metal markets could lead to some headaches

Bloomberg/WSJ:  Swiss franc cap tested as gold bugs push referendum; Swissie close to crunch point in runup to gold referendum

Resource Investor/Mineweb:  India’s gold import bill triples to $3.5 billion in October; Scottia-Mocatta – India gold imports to rise into 2015

Gold Rebound? GOFO It!

Posted by on November 12th 2014 in CFTC, China, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, JPMorgan, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Syria, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GofoGold

With gold said to be “surprisingly volatile, with sweeps up and down this week,” Tuesday was an up day, as spot gold and silver added more than 1.5%, with the gains attributed to a falling dollar and increased physical demand. “Retail demand is very strong since prices came off,” according to one trader quoted by Reuters, who added that “Asia is also showing steady buying interest.”

This as Bloomberg reports that gold “should find solace after rates at which bullion is lent for dollars turned negative, signaling tighter supply.” It’s Chart of the Day, above, “shows the three-month gold forward offered rate has turned negative on a weekly basis. Prices rose in three of the past four times this occurred since last year.”  Last week it was reported that the gold forward, or GOFO rate, was the most negative since 2001.

See also:

Coin News:  U.S. Mint to resume Silver Eagle sales on November 17

Reuters/AJA:  Russian central bank buys up domestic gold output as sanctions bite; Putin goes for the gold

AP/GoldCore:  Obama, Putin circle each other warily in China; New currency wars cometh – Gold to be “last man standing”

The Gold Report/Daily MailGold vs. fiat currency – A conversation with Alan Greenspan; ISIS wants to introduce its own currency – Plans to bring back solid gold and silver dinar coins

MarketWatch/Gold Silver Worlds:  Gold will signal when stocks have peaked; The Dow to gold ratio: Will 2015 be the turning point?

Bullion Bulls Canada/Zero Hedge:  The next crash in 2016; Former Goldman banker reveals the path to next depression & stock market collapse

Salon/Wall Street on Parade:  JPMorgan’s $9 billion witness puts government testimony by her boss into question

Physical Buyers Seize Paper-Selling Opportunity

Posted by on November 11th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Media, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

PaperSelling=Opportunity

Silver and gold ended off 1.1% and 2.2% respectively on Monday, giving back a portion of Friday’s gains as the U.S. dollar rebounded. “From a technical perspective,” according to USA Gold’s daily market report, “Friday’s key-reversal on the daily chart and the hook-reversal on the weekly chart favor further short-term positive price action” in gold.  “However, persistent firmness in the dollar and buoyant stocks continue to prompt outflows from ETPs indexed to gold. Another eight tonnes came out of the paper market last week.”  But, citing numerous examples that demand for physical gold and silver “remains robust,” it notes that “We’ve seen this time and time again: Lower prices spurred by selling in the paper market are viewed as a buying opportunity by those who prefer to hold real physical metal.”

See also:

Coin News/Mineweb::  U.S. Mint gold coins gain; Silver Eagle sales remain suspended; Gold demand still running high, so where’s the turning point?

Bullion Star/USA Today:  Chinese gold demand strong, mainstream media twisting; China hoarding gold to challenge U.S. dollar?

GoldMoney/Reuters:  Deflation comes knocking at the door; Fed’s Rosengren says fight for higher inflation should be vigorous

MarketWatch/Mineweb:  Silver and gold say global growth (still) stinks; Permanent gold backwardation = global meltdown ahead

Zero Hedge:  The Council on Foreign Relations apologizes for the “Greenspan glitch

Metals Rebound as Jobs Report Underwhelms

Posted by on November 8th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsGainOnJobs

Spot gold and silver gained 2.8% and 1.9% on Friday, following a weaker-than expected October jobs report that led to the dollar suffering its biggest drop in three weeks. But dismissing the prospect of a sustained gold rally, one trader told Reuters that following such a big selloff, “some speculators are covering their shorts after the worse-than-expected non-farm number. I think that’s all it is at this point.” This as Hong Kong fund manager William Kaye describes how a short squeeze in gold, could unfold.

Trading in gold futures on Friday was more than double the 100-day average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, which also points out that “Gold’s 14-day relative-strength index in the previous five sessions was below 30, a level that suggests to some traders who study technical charts that prices may be poised to rebound. The gauge climbed to 36 today.”

And Coin News reports that weekly sales of gold coins “were the highest since mid-January when new 2014-dated American Gold Eagle and American Gold Buffalo coins ignited buying. Silver coin sales were on a tear until mid-week when the U.S. Mint announced that its Silver Eagles sold out.”

See also:

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Gold and silver charts – Short squeeze

GoldMoney/Reuters:  Weekly market report – Precious metals hit by strong dollar; COT Report – Speculators push long U.S. dollar position to largest since 2008

Bullion Star/SilverSeek:  Lower silver prices spark unprecedented demand; Silver and powerful forces

Bloomberg:  China gold buying means price floor to Standard Chartered

Koos Jansen/Ron Paul:  Beijing financial forum – New global financial order is essential; Ron Paul – Watch out when people start to distrust our money

The Diplomat/Zero Hedge:  Time to take the Russia-China axis seriously; Russia nears completion of second “holy grail” gas deal with China

Toronto Star/AP:  Ukraine says hundreds of rebels killed as truce crumbles; Accuses Russia of sending dozens of tanks

Sorry, For the Moment

Posted by on November 8th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Gold, JPMorgan, Media, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

By James Cook

President/Investment Rarities

It’s hard to extoll the virtues of silver in the face of a price decline. We anticipate gains for our clients and are disappointed in the recent results. A lot of people rely on our advice and we don’t want to let them down. We all do better when our clients experience gains.

That said, are we ever going to get to the promised land? Right now the byword is patience. A clear understanding of what’s causing the recent decline will be helpful in plotting the future. As you know, we rely on silver analyst Theodore Butler to chart our course and fashion our advice. I happen to know that all his personal investments are in silver so he is definitely eating his own cooking. Because of his all-out bullishness on silver we have to stress that he operates with a care and cautiousness befitting of a mature and shrewd analyst. He understands the futures market like few others. Despite his profound and pioneering analysis of silver, surprisingly few gold and silver editors have embraced his breakthrough opinions. Either because of ego or stubbornness other precious metals analysts are invariably barking up the wrong tree. Mr. Butler has for years been the sole purveyor of the truth about silver….Read More »

Ted Butler’s Silver Sales Pitch

Posted by on November 8th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Gold, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | 1 comment

This memorandum was written by Ted Butler

for the  Investment Rarities’ broker staff on October 28, 2014

ted-butlerThere is a flip side to everything and mainly as a result of the terrible beating it has taken over the past few years, the upside cycle for silver appears to be at hand. Not only is silver at a stupid cheap price, it has everything necessary to rally sharply and soon. This week, for the first time in my memory, the CEO of a leading silver miner, First Majestic, called on fellow silver miners to withhold production to break the back of the manipulation. If there’s one clear signal that a commodity’s price is too cheap, it is just that.

To an investor, a cheap price means low risk and a good time to buy. But what about the reasons for silver to rally and rally soon? Start with the largest speculative short position in history. You’ve heard me complain about a massive silver short position by JPMorgan and other banks for years, but I’m talking about something different now. While there is still a very sizable commercial paper short position on the COMEX, that is separate from the new historical short position in COMEX silver held by technical funds or traders who rely on chart signals alone to buy or sell….Read More »

Greenspan: On Gold, Uncut

Posted by on November 8th 2014 in Federal Reserve, Gold, Monetary Policy, USD | Be the first to comment!

 GreenspanUncut

Gillian Tett: Do you think that gold is currently a good investment?

Alan Greenspan: Yes… Remember what we’re looking at. Gold is a currency. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency. No fiat currency, including the dollar, can match it.

Metals Take Break From Fall; G/S Ratio Near 5-Year High

Posted by on November 7th 2014 in CFTC, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

G:sRatio11:14

Spot silver and gold recovered slightly on Thursday, adding a few-tenths of a percent, after Wednesday’s rout “tempted some buyers back to the market and as the dollar dipped on profit-taking,” reports Reuters.  It quotes one gold trader as observing:  “We’re holding steady today but nobody wants to make a big move ahead of the employment numbers tomorrow morning. If there’s a positive number, they (the bears) may take a run at it.” This as Bloomberg reports that the gold/silver ratio hit a five-year high earlier this week, topping 76 before ending at 74.1 on Thursday (see above chart). And in a separate article, on American Silver Eagles selling out, Bloomberg notes that assets in ETFs and other exchange-traded products “backed by silver rose to a record last month, defying a slump in gold ETP holdings to the smallest since 2009.”

See also:

GoldPrice.org/Mineweb:  Silver and gold are severely oversold; Will they get worse before they get better?

Zero Hedge:  Physical gold shortage worst in over a decade – Gold forward rate most negative since 2001

Barron’s/GoldSeek:  Will the Swiss referendum turn around gold?

Pragmatic Capitalism/Sprott Money:  What if the Fed isn’t the wizard behind the economic curtain?; Federal Reserve counterfeiting approaches 100%

NY Post/Of Two Minds:  GOP should start fixing the Fed; If you think it matters which party controls the Senate, answer these questions

NY Times/Rolling Stone: Matt Taibbi spotlights a JPMorgan whistleblower; The $9 billion witness – Meet JPMorgan Chase’s worst nightmare

Metals Tumble as GOP Wins Boost Dollar

Posted by on November 6th 2014 in CFTC, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Interest Rates, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GOPdollar

Spot gold and silver ended off 1.8% and 3.6% respectively on Wednesday, reports Reuters, as the U.S. dollar rose, “extending multi-year highs after Republicans in mid-term elections won control over both chambers of the U.S. Congress for the first time since 2006, lifting investor expectations for more pro-business policies.”

While one analyst suggested that “Conservatives by nature are more hawkish and that is pushing the dollar higher. People do not see the need for gold,” another said that “Republicans might be harder on the Fed and loose policy. There’s little reason to hold gold when forward interest rates are going in one direction.”

And in response to a Wall Street Journal article, headlined “Good Morning, Ms. Yellen, Rand Paul on Line One,” USA Gold points out that “Yellen will advocate aggressively for continued Fed ‘independence,’ but I remind you of the recent statement made by former Fed chair Alan Greenspan: “I never said the central bank is independent!

See also:

Reuters/Coin News:  U.S. Mint temporarily sold out of Silver Eagles amid huge demand

GoldCore:  “Global scramble” for silver – coins “hard to get”, “premiums likely to jump”

Zero Hedge:  Paul Singer – Gold, bonds and “maybe history has stopped”; Russian ruble plunges to new record low as central bank hints at gold sales

Forex Live/Bloomberg View:  BOJ Minutes: Will keep easing until 2% inflation stable; William Pesek – Is Bank of Japan’s governor a genius or a madman?

Resource Investor/Market Realist:  Indian gold bullion imports hit 17-month high; Why India’s gold imports are increasing

Mineweb/Reuters/Politico:  U.S. miners may profit from GOP election blow-out; Energy seen getting biggest boost from Republican Senate; Elections give Keystone a filibuster-proof majority

Ted Butler: Tight Physical Market Leaves Shorts Vulnerable

Posted by on November 5th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 VulnerableSilverShorts

“All of the things I look at in silver seem to be aligned for a sharp move up,” says Ted Butler, in an interview with Investment Rarities’ President Jim Cook.  Butler explains that “The big commercial traders, led by JPMorgan, have managed to get all the technical hedge funds to plow into the short side of COMEX silver. The technical funds must buy back their thousands of short silver contracts since they can’t possibly deliver real silver.”

And in a more extended conversation, with Peak Prosperity‘s Chris Martenson, Butler reiterates that the technical funds “have no ability whatsoever to deliver physical metal and at the same time they’re shorting like crazy into a physical environment where there’s nothing but indications that the market on a wholesale, physical basis is very tight. And that’s a combination that you can just blow sky high in price.”

See also:

Reuters/SafeHaven:  Gold rises as dollar drops, breaks 4-day fall; Yen massacre and gold muscle

Mining.com/Bullion Star:  Chart – Silver price weakness won’t last; Insatiable Chinese gold demand continues unabated

Jim Rickards:  The difference between currency wars & financial wars

Zero Hedge:  Interest rates cannot rise – here’s why; Goldman shows “equity bust” risk highest since 2008

Bloomberg:  Singer’s Paul Elliott Says U.S. growth optimism unwarranted as data ‘cooked’

Sharelynx/Money MetalsGold manipulation at the LMBA fixes; Why your stockbroker hates gold – The ugly truth

Metals Hover Near 2010 Lows; Coin Sales Continue Climb

Posted by on November 4th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 SilverCoinSurgeOct14

With silver and gold futures inching up and down respectively on Monday, paper and physical continue to diverge as explosive demand for bullion coins is being seen in both the U.S. and Europe.  According to a German coin dealer quoted by that country’s Gold Reporter:  “On Thursday and Friday people had to draw numbers in order for us to control the run. On both days we sold each around 40,000 silver ounces – incredible. Demand is back – and hysteria as well.”

And Coin News reports that U.S. Mint “bullion coins rallied to start November with gold coin sales jumping 14,500 ounces and silver coin sales advancing 736,000 ounces. Gains extended from an exceptional October when gold coin sales were the highest since January 2014 and silver coin sales were the highest since January 2013.” This as Sprott’s John Embry contends that “silver remains as undervalued an asset as I have ever seen.”

See also:

InvestorIntel/ReutersWorld demand for gold is strong, despite a price drop to the lowest level in four years

Seeking Alpha:  Markets misreading of Fed statement is opportunity in gold; Gold and QE – Setting the record straight

USA Gold/Zero Hedge:  The reinvention of Alan Greenspan; Greenspan to Marc Faber: “I never said the Fed was independent

Silver Seek/SafeHaven:  A silver primer – Where are we now?; A sunny silver forecast: Low price today means high price tomorrow

Mining.com/GATAChina’s gold strategy; ETF outflows – Is that where all that gold going into China is coming from?

Bloomberg/Wall Street on Parade:  JPMorgan faces U.S. criminal probe into currency trading; Despite criminal history, JPMorgan holds $1.7 trillion in QE bonds

Thanksgiving: Metals Over October After Down Day, Week, Month

Posted by on November 1st 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, GATA, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

ScaryBears

Gold futures were off 2.3% on Friday and silver doubled that decline, with both hitting four-year lows on the day and having their worst week since April 2013.  “Japan basically pushed gold over the edge as it triggered a major risk-on move,” according to a Saxo Bank commodity strategist, citing Japanese stimulus, the Fed ending QE and dollar strength as being “more than the market could cope with this week.”

“The main reason for gold’s fall is the strength in the dollar after the BOJ’s desperate efforts to weaken the yen,” said the head of one asset management firm, and while predicting that “Gold could fall further in the short term as the dollar could rise,” he also thinks “gold should eventually benefit as a hedge against the uncertainties and economic turmoil brought by central-bank actions.”

While in the realm of the coins, Silver Eagles had their best month of the year in October, and with sales of some 38 million this year, they’re only about one million behind the pace of 2013’s record-setting year.

See also:

Jesse’s Café AméricainGood morning, Fiat Nam!

Dan Norcini:  Hedge funds feasting on small specs in silver; Gold bears nail hedge fund sell stops

Seeking Alpha:  Putting the gold selloff into perspective

Mineweb/Bullion Star:  Gold and silver dive yet Chinese demand keeps rising; The great Chinese silver market debate

The Gold Report321 Gold‘s Bob Moriarity – Flock of black swans points to imminent stock market crash

KWN/Sprott Global:  Eric Sprott says the stock market will crash, not gold; What Greenspan’s latest talk means for gold

GATA:  Here’s what the World Gold Council is doing today amid the war against gold

Silver Slump Gives Ratio Bump

Posted by on October 31st 2014 in CFTC, China, Euro, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverSlumpsRatioBumpsFollowing better-than-expected U.S. GDP growth of 3.5% for the third quarter, spot gold and silver fell 1% and 3.4% respectively on Thursday, and futures were hit even harder, tumbling 2.1% and 4.9%, on what was “a rough day for the precious metals, with the financial powers-that-be trying to prove that the end of QE III need have no negative effects on their financial engineering of The Recovery™.”

With silver hitting a 56-month low, the gold/silver ratio is now pushing 73, a 66-month high, but if an in-depth chart analysis published by SilverSeek — “Time Running Out on Silver Bear” — proves correct, that could change in weeks, not months.  It predicts that November is “the time for the present silver bear market to end, and for silver to begin its next leg higher within its primary bull market.”

See also:

Zero Hedge/Businessweek:  Broken stocks, battered bullion, and bruised crude; Did the U.S. just ‘steal’ GDP growth from the fourth quarter?

James Grant/Eric Parnell:  Complexity – The hidden cost of central bank actions; A once-in-a-generation change for stocks

Bullion Star/Mineweb:  China stocks up on oil & gold while prices are low; China’s ‘new normal’ still global metals demand driver

Bloomberg/Mining.com: Russia buys most gold for reserves since 1998 financial crisis; Pushes forward plans to mine the moon

CNBC/Grant Williams:  Currency traders eye Swiss vote on gold holdings

GoldCore:  U.S. Mint gold coin sales near 60,000 ounces in October – Swiss gold initiative leading to increase in demand?

QE Ends; Greenspan Goes All Gold Bug

Posted by on October 30th 2014 in Federal Reserve, Gold, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GoldBugGreenspan

Spot gold and silver fell some 1.4% and 0.8% on Wednesday, with most of the drop following the FOMC announcement that it was ending it’s QE program, but that it would also keep interest rates low for a “considerable time.” The U.S. dollar rose on the announcement, which was said to have also “put downside price pressure on gold.”

But according to former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, during an appearance Wednesday, QE “didn’t do much for the real economy.” And as Zero Hedge points out, Greenspan “has suddenly had an epiphany and now has a very different message from the one he preached during his decades as the head of the Fed:  ‘Mr. Greenspan said gold is a good place to put money these days given its value as a currency outside of the policies conducted by governments.'”  And USA Gold’s buying it:  “With the price of gold down in reaction to today’s policy statement, now might be the perfect time to heed the former chairman’s investment advice.”

Silver’s $ Volume said to Top Gold’s

Posted by on October 29th 2014 in Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Silver$VolumeTopsGold

October sales of the U.S. Mint’s 2014 Gold and Silver American Eagles surpassed September’s sales this week, reports Coin News. Gold Eagles saw their best month since January, and the 4.36 million Silver Eagles sold in October was more than in any month since March. And given the outsized gold/silver ratio, which stood at 71.46 on Tuesday, Patrick Heller writes that “it should surprise no one that demand for physical silver by American investors is so strong in the U.S. that the dollar volume of retail sales by coin dealers of silver exceeds that for gold. Over the past month, demand has been especially skewed in favor of silver.”

See also:

MarketWatch/InvestorPlace:  Gold and silver futures creep higher ahead of Fed decision

Confounded InterestThe Night of the Living Fed!

Hard Assets Investor:  Fed’s halting of QE may mark gold’s bottom; Don’t get bullish on gold until it breaks $1,350

SilverSeek:  Why silver and gold are the good news metals

Gold Report/Mineweb:  Analyst says peak gold is here to stay; Hong Kong gold exports to China pick up strongly but…

Deviant Investor:  Gold vs. paper – A Tale of Two Cities

‘Plunge Protection Team': Everywhere or Nowhere?

Posted by on October 23rd 2014 in Bailout, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

PlungeProtectionTeam

Gold and silver futures ended off 0.5% and 1.8% on Wednesday, with the drop attributed in some quarters to a “firming dollar and subdued inflation,” which an analyst cited by MarketWatch sees as “a normal trading correction.”  And while a post at Jesse’s Café Américain agrees, suggesting that the metals “may have taken a pause at support,” he also finds it “interesting to see them run with stocks today, in the face of some exogenous risk events. They are certainly acting oddly. One has to wonder if this is a related action by the “Plunge Protection Team” which feels free to purchase stocks at key points apparently to help restore confidence.”

David Stockman’s Contra Corner advances the argument that there is a “Plunge Protection Team,” and “It’s called the FOMC.” This as Bloomberg reports that Citigroup analysts “have put a price on how much liquidity central banks need to provide each quarter to stop markets from sliding. By estimating that zero stimulus would be consistent with a 10 percent quarterly drop in equities, they calculate it takes around $200 billion from central banks each quarter to keep markets from selling off.”

Ted Butler has also raised the issue of the “Plunge Protection Team” meddling in the metals, alleging that it gave JPMorgan the greenlight to manipulate the silver market.

Gold and Silver Supply: A Mere 20 More Years?

Posted by on September 6th 2014 in China, General Economy, Gold, India, Russia, Silver | Be the first to comment!

 

Gold&SilverSupply