See Ya in September!

Posted by on August 30th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

HopeSpringsSepternal

Gold and silver futures fell about a half a percent on the final U.S. trading day in August, but it’s said that “September should be glowing for gold,” with the biggest boost likely coming from India. The article accompanying the above chart points out that Indian seasonal buying which is forecast to be better than last year, “typically increases with the country’s festival period, which runs from late August to October….” A Wall Street Journal feature on India’s ‘improving appetite‘ for gold, is echoed by a Scrap Monster report that gold premiums in India have more than doubled this week, “in anticipation of towering festive season demand.”

See also:

Jesse’s Café Américain/SafeHaven:  Coppock Indicator – An intermediate term bottom for gold is in; Enormous paper silver trading volumes

BullionStar.com/Smaulgld:  Precious metals markets – China vs. US; The Importance of gold to nations & individuals

WSJ/USA Gold:  Bernanke – 2008 meltdown was worse than Great Depression; Don’t think it can’t happen again

Businessweek/CBS News: For every education level, real wages have gone down so far this year; Americans fear economy is permanently scarred

CNBC/Dow Jones: One-percenters bullish on US despite ‘failed’ Obama presidency; Fed’s Lockhart & Fisher were active personal asset traders in 2013

Zero Hedge:  Marc Faber slams US intervention in Middle East, warns “whole region will blow up

Russia vs. Ukraine; Banks vs. Bullion

Posted by on August 29th 2014 in CME Group, Gold, JPMorgan, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsGainOnUkraine

Spot gold and silver gained about a half a percent Thursday as tensions ratcheted up between Ukraine and Russia. “The market is getting nervous about the Ukraine situation, and people are moving to gold,” said one commodities broker, adding that “Talks of further sanctions against Russia are increasing the safe-haven premium of gold.” And while noting that the “propaganda is flying hot and heavy from both sides” of the Ukraine border, Jesse’s Café Américain suggests that “A real flight to safety would crush the precious metal shorts if it spills over from paper to the bullion markets.  And so I would look for the banks to do all that they can to avoid it, diffuse it, deflect that possibility.”

What Is It Saying?

Posted by on August 29th 2014 in Federal Reserve, General Economy, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 

WhatTheHell'sItSaying?

Dollar Seen Losing Altitude

Posted by on August 28th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Middle East, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

DollarThrottlesBack

“The numerous sources of geopolitical crisis are evidently preventing the gold price from slumping,” said Commerzbank’s head of research, after spot gold edged up 0.1% on Wednesday and silver added a couple ticks more to gain 0.3%.  Gold’s gain was also attributed to a drop in the dollar, but there’s more to come, according to the chief economist at Saxo Bank:  “Our major call is:  short the US dollar index and long commodities … USD will weaken significantly from mid-Q3 into Q1-2015. The market remains overexposed to the dollar and U.S. equities relative to the norm. Furthermore, with mid-term elections on November 4 the coming budget talks will have a hard time producing the convincing and long-term results needed.”

See also:

USA Gold/BullionStar.com:  The interest rate trap and what it means to the gold market; Chinese gold demand y-t-d, silver surprise

Foreign Affairs/Market Oracle:  Just-published article recommends policy shift that is very bullish for gold

Gold Switzerland:  Interviews with GoldMoney’s Alasdair Macleod and The Telegraph‘s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Financial Times/New York Times:  Central bankers face ‘confidence bubble’; A new reason to question the official unemployment rate

Daily Reckoning:  Steve Forbes interviews James Grant – Bubbles, bargains & everything in between

Ted Butler: How Silver Could Bubble Up

Posted by on August 27th 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverBubbleIn making the case for a “coming silver bubble,” Ted Butler explains that “an asset bubble develops when an undervalued asset which has a compelling investment story and there exists an overall financial environment of sufficient buying power, catches the collective interest of the crowd. For example, by the mid-2000’s and after years of steady appreciation, residential real estate developed into an asset bubble amid the self-fulfilling cycle of continued gains and the availability of easy credit.

As far as great stories go, silver has the best potential story to develop into a bubble. First, there is little argument BubblingUpthat it is among the most, if not the most undervalued asset of all by objective relative historical price comparison. In addition, it is at or below its primary cost of production, as evidenced in recent quarterly earnings reports. Remember, most bubbles start out with an asset that is undervalued – on this score silver more than qualifies as being undervalued. Aside from extreme undervaluation, the silver story is multi-faceted.”… Read More >>>

See also:

Coin News/SRSrocco ReportGold, silver rise; Silver Eagle bullion coins top 28M;  Shanghai silver warehouse stocks fall 24% in one week

Bloomberg/LA Times: Gold advances most in two weeks on Ukraine tension

GoldCore/GoldSeek:  Russia coordinating gold reserve accumulation with ex-Soviet states?; Will the U.S. succeed in breaking Russia to maintain dollar hegemony?

Mineweb/SafeHaven:  Is Asian gold demand really slipping so much?; Road sign says – Pot of gold ahead

Daily Reckoning/Zero Hedge:  As the Fed prints money, buy gold and brace for impact; Council on Foreign Relations – “Central Banks should hand consumers cash directly

Metals Edge Down as Stocks, Dollar Gain on QE Hints

Posted by on August 26th 2014 in ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 ECBQE

Following a brief move higher on Monday, spot gold and silver ended down a fraction of a percent, with gold said to have been under pressure from “a stronger U.S. dollar and rallying global financial markets,” buoyed by the prospect of the ECB launching a QE program, based on remarks by Mario Draghi at Jackson Hole. But USA Gold points out that “the yellow metal has proven fairly resilient … Despite the dollar strength—which is more a function of euro and yen weakness.  A weak round of U.S. data this morning may be helping the cause as well, pushing back Fed rate hike expectations somewhat.”

See also:

Bloomberg/Washington Post:  Jackson Hole theme – Labor markets can’t take higher interest rates; Central banks to lawmakers - You try growing the economy

Confounded Interest:  Yellen discusses labor slack, but not terminal (money) velocity or sterility

John Hussman/HBR:  Fed policy and the growing gap between Wall Street and Main Street; Profits without prosperity

Bloomberg:  Speculators lower gold bull wagers on U.S. rate outlook; Silver open interest reaches 14-month high on short bets

Seeking Alpha/BullionStar.com. Commodity outlook – Silver; India imports 2559 MT of silver in 5 months

Gold Scents/SilverSeek:  Manipulation is still alive and well in the gold market; Beditching hour - Silver knocked down at 6 p.m. for 83% of sessions in last 3 years

Fed Seen ‘Trying to Bluff the Market’

Posted by on August 23rd 2014 in Bart Chilton, CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Janet,Jackson

At the end of a down week for gold and silver, off some 1.8%  and .7% respectively, both were up slightly on Friday as Ukraine held sway, with 130 trucks from Russia’s long-stalled “aid” convoy rolling across the border into Ukraine, which characterized the breach as a “direct invasion.” Not so direct was Fed Chair Yellen, whose speech at Jackson Hole was seen as “noncommittal,” and even “confusing,” while an analyst quoted by Bloomberg saw misdirection:  “They’re trying to bluff the market,” he said of the Fed. “They’re trying to warn investors about the potential for rate increases, without actually implementing a rate increase. I think that will strengthen the trading range for gold.”

See also:

GoldSeek/The Sovereign Investor:  Gold rising-rate fallacy; Inflation, interest rates, and why you should own gold

Gold Switzerland:  Gold unloved and undervalued

Hard Assets Investor/Dan Norcini:  Commodity ETF flows:  Money enters GLD & SLV; Aggressive hedge fund selling plagues silver

Got Gold Report:  Revolving Door Watch – High-frequency trading critic Bart Chilton joins HFT lobby effort

Zero Hedge/Jesse’s Café Américain:  South African bank – Give us your gold; A bond paid for & denominated in gold

Reuters/Mineweb:   China gold exchange gains traction as yuan reforms stir interest; Russia leading central bank gold buyer, but China – who knows?

NY Times/CNN:  NATO – Russians open fire in Ukraine; Is Obama heading toward airstrikes in Syria?

Gold Falls on Rate Hike Speculation

Posted by on August 22nd 2014 in ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

RateHikeSpec

Spot silver was down 0.2% on Thursday, but gold ended off 1.4%, hitting a two-month low on the prospect of an earlier-than-expected interest rate rise and what was seen as “encouraging” data on jobs and housing. “The market is digesting the likelihood of the Fed raising rates,” according to one analyst quoted by Bloomberg, who added, “That’s very dollar-bullish, and it’s creating a lot of pressure on dollar-denominated assets, especially gold.”

But according to a CNBC survey of Wall Streeters, chart above, they expect “the Federal Reserve to be so dovish that the coming round of interest rate hikes won’t begin until the middle of next year and won’t end until the next president is in office for nearly a year.” As for the economy, its growth is seen as “still coming primarily from the growth of paper assets and not from any underlying activity in the real economy.”

See also:

New York Sun-USA Gold/SilverSeek:  The mystery of Jackson Hole

Wall Street on Parade/WSJ:  Two charts that should frighten Fed Chair Yellen; Fed’s Plosser warns very-easy money policy increasingly risky

Washington Post/The New YorkerWorse than the 1930s – Europe’s recession is really a depression; Hurt Putin, hurt yourself?

BullionVault/Bloomberg:  Central banks buying gold “firmly” in 2014; U.S. Mint platinum coins bypassed in rush for gold [and silver]

Washington’s BlogGoldFellas! – Former Mafia boss trusts physical metals over ‘shady’ Wall Street

USA Today/MarketWatch:  Bank of America agrees to nearly $17B settlement; Ferguson and money – Where did all the banks go?

Market AnthropologyBreaking the banks & finding gold

Metals Still Not Moving Much; Fed Split on Rate Rise

Posted by on August 21st 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GoldStayingPuts

By one account, gold and silver prices “seem determined to hold on here,” as they continued to trade in a narrow range on Wednesday, with spot silver up 0.2% and gold off 0.4%.  Reuters attributes the drop in gold to gains in the dollar, “on economic optimism after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting showed the U.S. central bank has seen progress in the U.S. labor market.” But MarketWatch, describing “a growing division within the Fed” over the health of the labor market, reports that “a majority still don’t believe there’s been enough progress to consider altering interest rates soon.” The July minutes were also dismissed as “a market diversion until Jackson Hole.”

See also:

Zero Hedge: Jackson Hole – ‘Tremendous’ downside risks if Yellen doesn’t go full-dovish

Street Talk Live:  The illusion of strength; Alternative measures suggest weaker economy

Reuters/Seeking Alpha:   Fading volatility promises long period of gold stagnation; Silver prices will remain rangebound

Got Gold Report:  Heckle if you want, but be prepared for anything in gold and silver

Hard Assets Investor/Casey Research:  Gold/silver ratio says silver is cheap, but it can get cheaper; Silver – As close to a no-brainer investment as it gets

Business Insider:  Ten countries hoarding enormous piles of gold

Hotspots Not Heating Up Gold—More Floor Than Soar

Posted by on August 20th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Gold&GeopoliticalRisk

“Gold obviously didn’t like the U.S. CPI and housing data, which boosted the dollar,” said a Saxo Bank manager, speaking about a 0.1% increase in the monthly inflation rate, and July’s 15.7% jump in U.S. home construction.  But despite that, spot gold was off only 0.2%, while spot silver took a 1% hit. And according to an analyst quoted by MarketWatch, gold will likely remain in a narrow trading range, “unless by some miracle, all the tensions in the world are sorted out. A doubtful scenario.  I hasten to add that gold is not the perfect safe haven, far from it, but it does knee-jerk react to headlines, and as such, the downside should be limited for the time being.”  But that said, gold is also not going through the roof during this period of global tensions, as evidenced by the above chart. Grant William’s looks at what’s behind “Gold’s sudden ignorance of geopolitical risk.”

See also:

Jesse’s Café Américain:  The paper metals are a charade

Reuters/BullionStar.com:  China said to allow 3 more banks to import gold; East Asia geared up for renminbi gold trading

GoldSeek/GATA:  The U.S. gold in Fort Knox is secure, gone, or irrelevant?; U.S. gold reserve likely has been leased out, Grant Williams tells KWN

CEO.caBig move brewing for gold

Of Two Minds/Tim Iacono:  Are capital inflows propping up U.S. markets?; Stocks or bonds – Which has it right?

Bloomberg:  Only rich know wage gains with no raises for U.S. workers

ProPublica/TomDispatch.com:  The best reporting on federal push to militarize local police; One nation under SWAT

Metals Seen Biding Time ‘Till at Least September

Posted by on August 19th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Janet Yellen, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SeptemberSurge

A rising dollar and an equity rally on the perception that Ukraine tensions had eased, were said to be the driving factors behind a 0.4% drop in spot gold on yet another mixed day for the metals that also saw silver add 0.3%. “The market decided that since shooting had not broken out in the Ukraine that all is well and it was time to bulk up on the risk trade, albeit with low volumes,” according to a post at Jesse’s Café Américain, which calls this “a very cynical, Fed-fueled market.”

And in looking at when gold and silver might break out of their narrow trading ranges, Tim Iacono concludes that “Uncertainty over developments in Ukraine and Iraq should produce enough safe haven demand to keep metal prices from falling far during the last two weeks in August, but it seems any substantive rally will have to wait until at least September.”

See also:

Got Gold Report/ETF Daily News:  Comex Swap Dealers remain hugely short silver futures; How speculation fits in to the silver price forecast

SRSrocco Report:  Gold and silver – The eternal monetary couple; How the U.S. dollar reserve currency dies… slowly at first, then all at once

Peak Prosperity:  A brief history of U.S. money

USA Gold/Ciovacco Capital:  Why the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates soon; Jackson Hole: Covering excuses to keep rates low?

Of Two MindsLoss of faith in the Fed; Have we forgotten what an authentic market is?

NYT Magazine:  Paper boys – Inside the dark, lucrative world of consumer debt collection

Metals Mirror Ukraine Volatility

Posted by on August 16th 2014 in CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, George Soros, Gold, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsMirrorUkraineVolatility

Gold and silver were as erratic Friday as the day’s news reports about whether or not Ukraine artillery destroyed parts of a Russian column that did or didn’t cross into Ukraine. The metals fell early, and hard, in what was described as “a pretty obvious takedown,” occurring as initial inspections of the “humanitarian convoy” vehicles, which definitely did not cross the border, came up “almost empty,” according to a BBC correspondent.

Then, writes Dan Norcini, recapping the action in gold, “around mid-morning, up went the yellow metal, recapturing the $1300 level as reports filtered into the market that Russian forces had crossed the Ukrainian border and been engaged by their troops.” When all was said, but far from done, spot gold and silver ended off 0.7% and 1.4% respectively, with their near-term direction possibly hinging on the answer to this question.

See also:

Bloomberg/WSJ:  First daily silver price set after end of London fixing

GoldCore:  New ‘LBMA silver price’ – Still not transparent

RT.com/GoldSeekRussia seeks safe haven in gold, away from dollar and euro; No escape from the dollar as the currency standard

Zero Hedge/Bullion Baron“Soros put” rises to record – Is the billionaire investor betting on a market crash?

Mineweb/Barron’s:  Soros invests in gold stocks, Paulson holds his big ETF position – rode gold higher in 2Q

Short Side of Long/MarketWatchAging bull! – 283 weeks; Four signs this bull market is on its last legs

Confounded Interest:  Falling 10Y Treasury yields, flattening curve are not signs of a dynamic economic recovery

PMs Gain on Jobless Claims; Russian APCs Enter Ukraine

Posted by on August 15th 2014 in Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

JoblessClaimsGain

Silver was back in positive territory on Thursday and gold inched up again as U.S. jobless claims rose more than forecast, clocking in at a six-week high of 311,000.  “Concerns about the labor market are back,” according to one broker quoted by Bloomberg, who added that “safe-haven bids continue to come in because of the geopolitical developments.” Those bids were likely tempered on Thursday by Russian President Putin toning down his rhetoric on Ukraine. But that was before reporters for the Guardian and the Telegraph wrote of spotting Russian armored personnel carriers and support vehicles crossing the border into Ukraine.

Picture 9And concerning a report from the World Gold Council that Q2 demand for gold fell by 16% from 2013, USA Gold points out that “While not as strong as the seemingly insatiable demand seen in 2013, 964 tonnes is still a pretty darn good number; better than Q3 and Q4 of last year. As Jim Rickards noted in a recent interview, ‘[B]ig banks looted the GLD warehouse,’ of 500 tonnes in 2013. That’s a one-time event. ‘You can’t do that twice,’ said Rickards.”

 See also:

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Gold and silver charts – Take your stinking paws off our monetary metals

Mineweb:  Global gold demand returning to positive long-term trends; Russia may become world’s #2 gold miner this year

Reuters/Daily Reckoning:  Putin says Russia should aim to sell energy in rubles; The three biggest problems of the “dollar standard

Seeking Alpha:  Gold, the Fed and the inflation shuffle

Reuters/Brietbart.com:  White House loosens restrictions on lobbyists; Study – You have ‘near-zero’ impact on public policy

Tim Iacono:  One more thing to worry about

Russia, Ukraine Stand Off; U.S. Shoppers Stand Down

Posted by on August 14th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, JPMorgan, Middle East, Russia, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 ShoppersStandDown

Silver futures finished off 0.3% on Wednesday, which is what gold ended up, with the impetus being July’s flat retail sales, described as “an appalling number” that “has faded the notion of a hike in the interest rate by the Fed, at least today.” And while U.S. data held sway over geopolitics, fighting resumed between Israel and Hamas, U.S. troops are on the ground in Iraq, and the Russian aid convoy headed to Ukraine has gone to ground at a Russian military base,  some 300 miles from its Ukrainian destination of Luhansk.  This as Ukraine’s Interior Minister declared that “No Putin ‘humanitarian convoy’ will be permitted to travel through the territory of Kharkiv region.”

See also:

Zero Hedge:  Stocks up, bonds up, gold up, oil up, dollar up, f’d up; Saxo Bank warns of 3 ‘other’ geopolitical risks investors are ignoring

ReutersCommodity future – Islamic State militants grab new weapon – Iraqi wheat

BullionStar.com/Profit ConfidentialSilver scarce in Shanghai, futures curve in backwardation; The world supply of gold bullion is shrinking

The Gold Report:  Jim Rickards and Peter Schiff discuss global gold markets

Reuters:  U.S. Mint to use new silver benchmark for coin sales, purchases; London gold fix lawsuits to be consolidated in New York

bookcoverWall Street on Parade:  How high up did the Madoff fraud go at JPMorgan?

Read the first chapter of  JPMadoff: The Unholy Alliance Between America’s Biggest Bank and America’s Biggest Crook