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Could HK Protests Boost Gold?

Posted by on September 30th 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, Uncategorized, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Gold and silver prices ended slightly higher on Monday, with gold seen supported by unrest in Hong Kong, where an estimated 80,000 protestors, in what has been dubbed the “Umbrella Revolution,” are “demanding that China withdraws rules that allow it to vet candidates for the next leadership election,” reports the BBC. “The protesters, who are made up of students and supporters of the Occupy Central pro-democracy movement, want a free choice of candidates for the vote in 2017 but Beijing has ruled that option out.”

Acknowledging the short-term bump for gold, an RBC strategist has a wait-and-see attitude about the ultimate impact: “You’re always going to have, in any geopolitical uncertainty, a small flight to quality. To break out of a two-year range, you really need a catalyst. Hong Kong could break it out of that range, but 24-48 hours of protests is not enough.”

See also:

USA Gold:  Gold underpinned by geopolitical tensions, dovish FedSpeak

ABC (Australia)/Ciovacco Capital:  Hong Kong protests add new geopolitical threat to markets; U.S. stocks – Key week for bull/bear battle

Gold Silver Worlds:  COT Report shows JP Morgan holds lowest silver short position since 2008

Bullion Star/Gold Reporter:  Chinese gold demand becomes explosive; German bullion dealers report major increase in sales

Bloomberg:  Singapore bourse to start kilobar gold trading to lure investors

GATA/TF Metals Report:  William Cohan discusses hangup in publication of report on silver market rigging

Silver Price Seen Struggling—To Go Any Lower

Posted by on September 27th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverTDI

Referencing the above chart of The Disparity Index (TDI), for silver, which measures the relative position of its current price to the 40-week moving average, Gary Christenson calls attention to “the recent smash-down in silver prices and its deeply over-sold daily status,” which has led to a current daily silver TDI reading that’s “the most over-sold since the post-1980 crash.

And in his weekly market wrap-up, Alasdair Macleod cites an exceptionally high volume of futures contracts being swapped for physical silver. “Could it be that this silver was required to be delivered to other markets,” asks Macleod, “such as Shanghai, where stocks are depleted and silver is trading at a price premium? Could it be that the acceleration of demand for silver eagles is indicative of the demand for physical silver at these low prices? If so, it is an indication that Comex is pricing silver futures too low to reflect genuine demand, and the price will struggle to go lower.”

See also:

Bloomberg/LA Times:  Gold drops 0.5% as U.S. economy expands most since end of 2011; silver gains 0.6%

Zero Hedge:  High-yield credit’s worst week in 15 months sends stocks sliding; It’s the dollar, stupid!

WSJ:  Watch that rising dollar, it might eventually give the Fed pause; U.S. dollar strength not likely to dampen inflation much

GoldCore:  Currency wars deepen – Russia, Kazakhstan buy very large 30 tons of gold in August

Jesse’s Café Américain:  William Cohan responds on his silver rigging exposé - Two U.S. national publications refused the story

Michael Lewis – The secret Goldman Sachs tapes:  ProPublica article; This American Life episode

Salon:  Wall Street’s new jackpot at taxpayers’ expense

Indian Gold Demand Smokes Comex

Posted by on September 26th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

IndianGoldSmokesComex

“After a gap of nearly five months, there is some cheer emerging from India for the bullion market,” begins a Mineweb report, “as buyers appear to be taking advantage of the relatively low gold prices. Gold demand has picked up across the country, according to traders, despite it being an ‘inauspicious’ period as per the Hindu calender.”  The period’s end, which occurred on Wednesday, “also marks the beginning of festive buying that peaks around Diwali,” the start of the Hindu New Year.

Given the Indian government’s restriction on gold imports, the buying season’s surge in demand is being met by another surge, one that has reportedly seen 50 tonnes of gold smuggled in over 10 days.

Jesse’s Café Américain puts the contextual icing on that cake:  “So much for the mainstream media reports of a waning interest in gold in India and elsewhere. To put this into perspective, there are just under 32 tonnes of total registered gold on the Comex.”

See also:

Bloomberg: Gold rebounds from eight-month low as U.S. equities slide

Dan Norcini: Stock market weakness brings safe-haven buying into gold, bonds:

Business Insider/The Trading Report:  NYSE margin debt drifting higher again; 5 U.S. banks each have $40 trillion in exposure to derivatives

John Hussman:  The Ponzi economy

Zero Hedge/Joseph Stiglitz:  China set to fire its central bank head, unleash the liquidity floodgates; “The U.S. will always pay its debt. Because it just prints the dollars.”

Pragmatic CapitalismThe great gold debate

Gold and Silver: ‘Sellers Remain In Control’

Posted by on September 25th 2014 in CFTC, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

StrongDollar

Spot gold and silver were off half a percent on Wednesday as the dollar gained on the back of single-family home sales hitting a six-year high in August, even though the overall housing numbers are seen as “still fairly depressed.” As for the dollar, “the rally in the U.S. dollar index to a four-year high has been a major bearish ‘outside market’ factor working against gold and silver,” according to an analyst’s report cited by Coin News, and “the continued bearish technical postures for both gold and silver are allowing the sellers to remain in control.”

See also:

MarketWatch/Gold-Prizes.biz:  Gold may rebound as extreme bearishness sets in

Mineweb/KWN:   Lawrence Williams – What’s behind the current silver disconnect?; Despite pressure, is silver ready to turn mega-bullish?

Numismastic News/Reuters:  Patrick Heller – Soft metals weaken U.S. coin prices; American Eagle gold coin sales set to jump in September

JS Kim:  Don’t be misled by weakness in gold & silver paper markets

Yahoo! Finance/Seeking Alpha:  Analyst – Dollar power is a problem for stocks

Arabian Money:  Can gold and silver really fail when stocks and bonds fall?

Gold Flares Up, Tails Off On Syria Strikes

Posted by on September 24th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Middle East, Short Sellers, Silver, Syria, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GoldFlaresUp

Spot gold and silver ended up 0.6% and 0.3% respectively on Tuesday, after gold pulled back from a more than 1% overnight gain following airstrikes in Syria. “Gold is getting some temporary support from the bombs,” according to one trader quoted by Bloomberg, who added that “Physical demand is expected to rise after the big drop in the past few weeks.”

That’s the case with American Silver Eagles, which “crossed the 30 million mark” on Tuesday, reports Coin News, “landing at 30,531,000 with sales moving up to the second quickest pace in the coin’s 29-year history. Sales of this year’s Silver Eagles had been on a record annual pace until severe slowdowns in June, July and a good part of August. Early last week, demand for the coins started to rise sharply.”

See also:

GoldCore/Telegraph:  Gold, silver bullion coin sales robust despite sell off; Royal Mint’s tip for investors: go for gold

Hard Assets Investor/Seeking Alpha:  U.S. dollar will decide gold’s fate; China’s central bank is still underweight gold

KWN/The Daily Coin:  Sovereign buy orders in gold, but watch silver for price gains; Gold silver mining supply ratio

Market Oracle:  Silver, gold, debt and taxes; Gold, the Fed and the looming stock market correction Q&A

Alhambra Partners/Paul Craig Roberts:  QQE pandering goes global; Rigged gold price distorts perception of economic reality.

Silver: Bad News ‘Now Built Into the Market’

Posted by on September 23rd 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverOpportunity

Although spot gold and silver inched up on Monday, silver is hovering near a four-year low.  But according to options trader Todd Horwitz, in the above interview with Bloomberg, silver’s “got real solid support around this $16, $17 level.”  And reminding that “this is where we actually broke out when we went up to $50 an ounce,” he declares that “I’d be a buyer here at about the $17.50 level.” Concerning silver’s drop on a stronger U.S. dollar, and what many see as a stepped-up timetable for an interest rate increase, Horwitz argues that “all of the news is now built into the market, so I think this is a great spot to take a step in and take a shot at buying it.”

See also:

Wall Street Journal/Reuters:  Alan Blinder – Behind the Fed’s dovish turn on rates; Shane Ferro – Interest rates aren’t going up anytime soon

Bron Suchecki/TradePlacer:  Gold bottoming?; Has the gold price drop run its course?

Seeking Alpha:  Lower lows in gold still highly likely; Is the bottom in? It doesn’t matter to me

Daily Pfennig/Mineweb:  Russia and China add to their gold reserves. Russian central bank buys more gold and builds bilateral trade with China

GoldSeek/SCMP:  Chinese checkmate; Established rivals may keep Shanghai trade zone’s gold exchange in check

CNN:  Six ways Shanghai is different than the rest of China

A Yuanderful New Era for Gold?

Posted by on September 20th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

YaGottaYuander

Following Thursday’s launch of the Shanghai Gold Exchange‘s trading of contracts in the city’s free-trade zone, China’s first exchange completely open to foreign investors, Reuters reports that “A successful take-up of the exchange could see gold priced and paid for in yuan rather than the U.S. dollar, challenging the traditional dominance of London and New York in trading.  While physical demand provides underlying support for gold, prices are largely driven by speculative trade. China’s push for an international physical exchange means physical demand could have a stronger influence.” But BullionVault‘s Adrian Ash makes the case that “China’s inability to export gold bullion puts a big block on it affecting world prices.”

See also:

Bloomberg:  Gold falls on equity rally, silver drops to four-year low; Dollar has longest win streak since 1967 on divergence

GoldSeek/Mineweb:  Gold and silver fall more than 1% and 4% on the week; Julian Phillips – Silver at ‘bargain levels

Gold Silver Worlds:  Gold and silver prices drop to critical Fibonacci levels

Zero Hedge:  Fed’s Fisher admits “Fed has levitated markets“, warns of “signs of excess”; Quantitative proof the Fed is destroying the middle class

Fiscal Times:  Instead of QE, the Fed could have given $56,000 to every household in America

Reuters:  U.S. House passes Fed audit bill, but measure seen doomed in Senate; Angry with Washington, 1 in 4 Americans open to secession

The Wire:  Congress heads home after some eight days in session between late-July and mid-November

Silver Investors See Low Cost, Long-Term Value

Posted by on September 19th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverThePriceIsRight

Earlier this week, Reuters reported that holdings at the world’s five largest silver ETFs hit a record high last Friday, when a one percent rise in the U.S.-based SLV posted its biggest one-day inflow since May 1. Now, Bloomberg‘s running of the numbers shows that holdings in silver backed exchange-traded products are up 1.5% since mid-July, nearing last October’s record, at the same time that hedge funds have turned their back on silver

“Retail investors who account for 80 percent of U.S. ETP purchases expect long-term growth to spur industrial demand for silver in everything from solar panels to electronics,” according to Bloomberg.  The article goes on to quote the Permanent Portfolio’s fund manager: “The increase in dollar value has acted as a hammer on commodities, including silver, and the funds and several investors are selling.  The long-term investors, on the other hand, are holding on to it since silver is a store of value and they look at it as significant metal both from the standpoint of monetary policies and economic activities.”  More from GoldCore:  “Silver buyers keep stacking and demand higher despite falling prices.”

See also:

SilverSeek/Coin NewsSpot gold & silver gain with stocks; Gold & silver futures fall

Investing.com:  Bob Kirtley – Monetary policy weighs on precious metals

Mineweb:  Economist Murenbeeld’s bearish & bullish factors for gold; GFMS sees gold price ‘recuperating

TradePlacer: David Levenstein- Leaders lying about state of world & economy, while gold is on sale

Bloomberg/Telegraph:  China opens gold market to foreigners amid price ambition; Super-rich rush to buy ‘Italian Job’ style gold bars

Metals Fall on Fed ‘Signal’; Eye Scottish Vote

Posted by on September 18th 2014 in ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 MetalsFallOnFed

Spot gold and silver lost more than 1% on Wednesday following the release of the policy statement from the FOMC’s September meeting. “While the Fed’s renewed pledge … to keep interest rates near zero for a ‘considerable time’ boosted the dollar and U.S. equities,” reports Reuters, “bullion reversed small earlier gains after the Fed forecasts signaled earlier-than-expected increases in interest rates next year.” And while one precious metals trader echoed that in saying, “the market quickly refocused itself on the idea that at this point everybody is speaking to the eventuality of a rate hike in 2015,” the Fed is also seen as being in no hurry to raise interest rates.

And in advance of Scotland’s independence vote on Thursday, a securities analyst tells MarketWatch that while he thinks that the “no” vote will prevail, “We do expect to see a massive short-covering rally in gold if Scotland votes ‘yes’, an event that should be momentous in terms of the economic fallout on both the U.K. and Europe.”

Metals Gain Ahead of Fed

Posted by on September 17th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, India, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

China'sStealthQE

Gold and silver advanced for the second and third session respectively, with gold said to be “getting a bid as the dollar weakened and China has announced some stimulus program,” described as a “stealth QE” that injected the equivalent of some $81 billion of liquidity into five banks.  The metals were also seen benefiting from talk that the Fed will slow-walk any eventual interest rate increases, in advance of  Wednesday’s conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting. And with silver outperforming gold, Reuters reports that “a technical indicator showed Tuesday’s gains sent the white metal out of oversold conditions.”

See also:

Hard Assets Investor:  Bulls shouldn’t be worried, they should buy if gold falls to $1,180

Michael Pento/Seeking Alpha:  Why Goldman Sachs is wrong on gold; Complete 2nd Quarter gold all-in costs show that ‘peak gold’ may be a reality

GoldCore/Reuters:  Gold demand in India triples as China launches global gold bourse this Thursday

Bloomberg:  China may boost gold reserves amid imbalances in holdings; Biggest banks said to overhaul FX trading after scandals

Wall Street On Parade:  There’s a bear growling in this bull market; Today’s stock market – Shades of the company town

Of Two Minds/Mises CanadaJanus Yellen and the great transition from risk-on to risk-off; Economic policy treats symptoms, not underlying causes

‘Retail Buyers’ Spike Silver ETF Holdings

Posted by on September 16th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Janet Yellen, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverETFholdings

With gold and silver futures inching up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively on Monday, holdings at the world’s five largest silver ETFs hit a record high on Friday, reports Reuters, driven by a one percent rise in the U.S.-based SLV, which posted its biggest one-day inflow since May 1 of this year. The article cites precious metals dealers as saying that “Long-term silver retail buyers stepped up demand after silver broke below the key $19 level last week.”  And a partner at a commodities investment firm said that he expects “ETFs in silver to outperform those in gold as small silver speculators continue to come onboard.”

See also:

NASDAQ/SRSrocco Report:  Is silver a value at current levels?; The collapse of U.S. silver stocks as public debt skyrockets

Dan Norcini/Got Gold Report:  Hedge funds exiting gold once again; Koos Jansen – China again buys the dip in gold and silver gets scarcer

Bloomberg/Times of India:  India August gold imports surge 176%; China to invest $100 billion in India over 5 years

Telegraph/Ron Paul:  Anxious Scottish investors buying gold; Will the Swiss vote to get their gold back?

Ciovacco Capital/WSJ:  Fed: The key portion of this week’s statement; How does Janet Yellen spend her time? - Check her calendar

Down Week Also Brings Talk of Peak

Posted by on September 13th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Iraq, Middle East, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

?PeakGold?

With gold and silver falling some 3 percent on the week, USA Gold’s market report observes that “A lessening of geopolitical tensions (albethey superficial), expectations of diverging monetary policies and the resulting rise in the dollar are all contributing to the weaker tone in the yellow metal. However, a couple key factors suggest that the downside is limited from here. Previous forays below $1200 have prompted strong buying interest,” and, “the supply of gold is in fact tightening already.”

It cites a Wall Street Journal interview earlier this week with the CEO of mega-miner Goldcorp, Chuck Jeannes, who said that miners have reached “peak gold,” which he sees as “very positive” for gold’s long-term price. More on “peak” prospects, from Mineweb‘s Lawrence Williams, who writes that “Jeannes is almost certainly correct in his prediction that global gold output is about to turn downwards, and may well remain on a downwards path for many years to come.”

See also:

Mining.com/Got Gold Report:  Heavy precious metals shorting is bullish; Speculator ‘insurance shorts’ and swap dealer shorts likely to spark a counter rally in gold

SilverSeek:  Will the real silver commercial traders stand up?

Reuters/Bullion Star:  India’s love affair with gold may be over; India’s June gold import highest in 12 months

Seeking Alpha/Forbes:  Gold – Russia, Iran and China are ‘Doomsday Preppers‘; Transacting in gold can shaft the IRS

Street Talk Live5 things to ponder -”bear-ly” extant; The 7 deadly sins of investing

The Automatic Earth:  The Fed has a big surprise waiting for you

Wall Street Journal/Of Two Minds:  The Federal Reserve’s too cozy relationship with banks; Why has classical capitalism devolved to crony-capitalism?

TPM-AP/Liberty Blitzkrieg:  Has the world been bamboozled by the ISIS PR machine?; Florida Congresswoman – “I’m glad people have this 9/11 mentality again”