Archive for the ‘CFTC’ Category

May Flowers for Gold and Silver?

Posted by on April 18th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MayFlowersForMetals?

With the COMEX closed for Good Friday, gold and silver ended down almost two percent on the week, but gold is said to be “nearing the end of a bottoming pattern,” according to a financial advisor quoted by MarketWatch, although, “it will need to break out above $1,400 before most traders will be convinced that gold has started a new bull market.”  He adds that the precious metals sector “is now under-owned and could experience another explosive rally once this bottoming pattern is complete.  This could happen soon especially if the U.S. dollar rally is short lived and the equity markets experience a seasonal…’Sell in May and go away‘ decline.”

See also:

Coin News:  Gold, silver fall on week; U.S. Mint bullion coins quicken

SilverSeek/SafeHaven:  Precious metals market report; Gold and silver triggers

IRD/SafeHaven:  Several factors suggest a big move is coming for gold

Zero Hedge:  If the smart money is selling stocks, who’s buying?; The great stock buyback craze is finally ending

GoldCore/CNBC:  85% of pension funds will go bust within 30 years; Bridgewater – Outlook for pensions is pretty awful

Paper Gains Slow; Bullion Sales Grow

Posted by on April 17th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, JPMorgan, Media, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

PaperSlowsBullionGrows

Gold and silver futures added a fraction of a percent on Wednesday, with gold benefiting from “some mild short covering and bargain hunting,” according to one analyst cited by Coin News, which also reports “another day of wide bullion gains,” based on numbers from the U.S. Mint, “adding to already strong figures with sales so far this week at 13,500 ounces in gold coins and 1,122,000 ounces in silver coins. Those top last week sales of 9,000 ounces in gold coins and 1,050,500 ounces in silver coins.”

Dan Norcini sees gold “being batted back and forth between two opposing forces at the moment. The negative force continues to be the slowing Chinese economy with traders fearing a slackening of demand from that key consumer. The positive is escalating tensions in the eastern part of Ukraine.” Bloomberg quotes one commodities broker as saying that “As long as there’s uncertainty in Russia, having some exposure to gold makes sense. With the selloff yesterday, it seems like cheaper insurance today.”

See also:

Tim Iacono/MinewebReuters omits the grey areas about China gold demand;  China gold blogger Jansen sticks by demand figures

WSJ:  India continues to bring home the gold despite import restrictions

SilverSeek:  David Morgan interview on silver market, silver price manipulation & the coming global monetary reset

Michael Pento/Wall Street on Parade:  Fed rigs markets, not the Flash Boys; Insiders tell all: Both the stock market & the SEC are rigged

Zero Hedge:  Atlanta Fed asks “Where are the jobs“; Dallas Fed’s Fisher admits, “Fed policies have made the rich much richer

Metals Drop as Investors Shrug Off Ukraine

Posted by on April 16th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

UkraineWeHardlyKnewYee

After being “monkey-hammered early on,” gold and silver “limped back higher” to close down 1.8% and 2% respectively on Tuesday, despite a ratcheting up of Ukraine tensions. Gold was “hit by profit-taking as the rally to $1,330 on Fed minutes appeared overdone,” according to one precious metals trader, who added that “The break below 200-day moving average and $1,300 level also triggered tons of sell-stops.” Another factor weighing on gold was said to be “speculation that a gain in U.S. consumer prices will give the Federal Reserve more leeway to reduce monetary stimulus.”

And citing a World Gold Council report on “China’s gold market,” USA Gold points out that also on Tuesday, “the market was worried by the WGC’s opinion that Chinese demand in 2014 might fall short of the “exceptional” demand seen in 2013. The WGC expects 2014 to be ‘a year of consolidation.’ While speculators might view a protracted period of consolidation as a reason to look for yield elsewhere, most buyers of physical gold [and silver] are not speculators. They buy gold for the purpose of long-term wealth preservation. In that frame of reference, steady or even lower prices are a gift, allowing one to accumulate gold weight without chasing ever-rising prices.”

See also:

Dan Norcini/Zero Hedge:  World Gold Council report pressuring gold; Gold futures halted again on latest furious slamdown

Tim Iacono/GoldSeek:  Gold sell-off reminiscent of a year ago

BullionVault/Mineweb:  Silver prices “ready to break out” as futures betting jumps to pre-crash level; USGS – U.S. mined silver output continues to fall

CNBC:  Can gold confound the markets and hit $1,400?

Steve St. Angelo/Bloomberg:  Goldman Sachs is highly motivated to low-ball the price of gold

 

Broker: Gold as Safe Haven Now ‘More than Ever’

Posted by on April 15th 2014 in CFTC, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Monetary Policy, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SafetyFirst

As stocks snapped back on Monday, gold and silver added a fraction of a percent, with gold hitting a three-week high, reports Reuters. It cites an increase in gold’s safe-haven appeal, which it attributes to “growing violence between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian government forces, and news that a Russian fighter aircraft made repeated low-altitude, close-range passes near a U.S. ship in the Black Sea over the weekend.” The article also quotes a commodities broker who advises that “the need to have some gold in investment portfolios for safety now is more than ever. A lot of people don’t necessarily trust the stock market at the moment.”

See also:

USA Gold:  Gold gains on geopolitical tensions, threats of ECB policy reaction to strong euro

Financial Times/Wall Street Journal:  ECB policymakers plot QE road map; Central bankers to world – Take our currencies, please

SilverSeek/GATASilver’s ultimate rally – When paper assets collapse; Silver is in backwardation and Comex prices are misleading, James Turk tells KWN

Bloomberg:  CME Group sued on claims high-frequency traders bought access

LA Times/Pulitzer.orgWashington Post, Guardian win Pulitzers for NSA-spying revelations; Complete list of winners, with links to the original articles

Metals Seen Supported by Fed, Stock Drop

Posted by on April 12th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverOpenInterest

With gold and silver ending slightly higher on the week, while stocks continued plunging on Friday, Alasdair Macleod writes of a “better tone to precious metals,” which was set by Wednesday’s release of the relatively dovish minutes from March’s FOMC meeting.  He also contrasts gold, “where Comex volume is moderate,” to silver, where “volume is high indicating very strong support at current levels.”  His conclusion is that “bullion banks trying to balance their silver books cannot do so at current prices. Yet higher prices are likely to trigger a vicious bear squeeze, so it appears the bullion banks with short silver positions will remain trapped either way.”

And in reference to the FOMC minutes, MarketWatch quotes one analyst as saying that “the magic of the central bank’s comments is still very strong and this was one of the reasons that we have seen the bounce for gold this week…We think the downside is limited for now and there is more potential for the upside.  Weak earnings coming in so far — and this trend could very well continue next week. This is going to keep the correction going in the equity market and could make the metal more attractive.”

See also:

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Gold and silver charts – Flight to safety continues

Zero Hedge:  Goldman summarizes the rout – “Derisking is the name of the game”; Blythe Masters under investigation by federal prosecutors

Mining.com:   The case for higher U.S. interest rates and higher gold

Bloomberg/In Gold We Trust: Shanghai gold bourse to start lease platform by the end of June;  New physical gold exchange in Singapore

Time/CNN:  Moscow is ‘ready for combat,’ NATO says; Photos ‘show Russian military buildup‘ near Ukraine

Gold and Silver Rally on ‘Dovish’ Fed

Posted by on April 10th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsRallyOnDovishFed

Gold and silver finished mixed on Wednesday, but both rallied along with stocks — see “Fed Cat Bounce” — after minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting showed that members seemed less inclined to raise interest rates than previously thought. “The Fed sounds less hawkish than it did last month, which is good for gold,” according to an investment strategist quoted by Bloomberg, who added that the market is nonetheless “confused because there are so many contradicting signals from the Fed.”

Or, as Dan Norcini, under the headline “Dovish Fed sinks US Dollar” describes it:  “Watching them swing from hawkish to dovish in such a short interval makes me understand why our markets are so screwed up. The Fed is consistently changing their assessment of things. That would be just fine and dandy were not the U.S. financial markets addicted to easy money and so utterly dependent on these jokers for their latest fix.”

See also:

Telegraph/Peak Prosperity: China ‘has more gold than official figures show’; China’s demand for gold has trapped the West’s central banks

BullionVault/SilverSeek:  Buying goldandsilver yet?; Real U.S. silver money would consume nearly half of world’s mine supply

J.S. Kim/Zero Hedge:  Bankers are using HFT algos to manipulate gold and silver prices; Put this guy in charge of the SEC

Wall Street on Parade/John Crudele:  Goldman Sachs drops a bombshell on Wall Street: Goldman keeps its “Flash Boys” under wraps

Bloomberg: Global growth threatened in $693 trillion derivatives review

Reuters/AP:  Separatists in east Ukraine call on Putin for help, Kiev warns of force; NATO’s military head – U.S. troops may be sent to Eastern Europe

Jobs # Comes Up Short for Short-Sellers

Posted by on April 5th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Mar14JobsShort

Gold and silver were said to have come “roaring off their oversold conditions” after Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report showed that 192,000 jobs were created in March.  Silver futures added 0.7% and gold futures jumped 1.5%, the biggest gain in three weeks, while stocks had what was described as a “brutal finale” to the week. “Everyone had been saying the job number was going to be so much better, but the economy didn’t improve the way investors had expected, and that’s why the short-sellers are covering their positions,” according to BullionVault‘s Miguel Perez-Santalla.  Gold and silver ended up a little less than 1% on the week, with gold closing at $1,303 an ounce and silver at $19.95.  With copper down 0.6% on the week, one analyst tells MarketWatch that “Falling copper prices are preventing the big rise in silver. We prefer to use caution for silver unless there is a convincing break of $20.45.”

See also:

Dan Norcini:  “Disappointing” payrolls number spurs gold buying

Wall Street Journal: The unemployment puzzle – Where have all the workers gone?

Zero Hedge:  Number of high wage jobs added in March: +2,000; The stock market is now exactly as overvalued as it was at the last bubble peak

Peter Schiff:  Meet “lowflation,” deflation’s scary pal

GoldMoney/Express Tribune:  Renewed estimates of Chinese gold demand; Pakistan refuses to sell $2.7 billion worth of gold says IMF

Casey Research/Of Two MindsThe Volcker Rule and you: What’s your bank doing with your money?; My wish for 2016: We finally get a president who doesn’t kiss Wall Street’s rear end

Metals Drop on Euro Weakness vs. USD

Posted by on April 4th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, GATA, General Economy, Gold, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GoldEuroDollar

In advance of Friday’s jobs report, spot gold and silver fell 0.8% and 0.5% respectively on Thursday, with the drop attributed to the dollar gaining against the euro, which fell 1% as ECB head Mario Draghi spoke at a press conference, in which he said “There was a discussion about QE, it wasn’t neglected.” But USA Gold’s market report points out that “While the dollar firmed intraday, gold did as well, giving a very preliminary indication that a launching of ECB asset purchases may ultimately supplant Fed tapering as the monetary policy story of the year…. the ECB is prepared to contort itself in whatever way deemed necessary to justify such purchases. It is also arguably a testament to the dire nature of Europe’s predicament.”

See also:

Daily Reckoning/Gold Silver WorldsExcess liquidity keeps the global economy afloat; If reflation is here, then gold is your ultimate hedge

Bullion Bulls Canada:  Is there any gold left for central banks to buy?

Coin Update/Coin News:  American Silver Eagle bullion sales jump in March, top 5.3 million

GATAReuters interviews Jim Rickards about gold’s ascent after ‘The Death of Money’; HFT controversy may lead to short squeeze in gold, Tocqueville’s John Hathaway tells KWN

Reuters/Of Two Minds:  U.S. futures regulator CFTC probing speed traders; It’s not just the stock market that’s rigged: the entire status quo is rigged

Gold and Silver Flip AM Script

Posted by on April 3rd 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Media, Monetary Policy, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsFlipMorningScript

On Wednesday, silver futures gained 1.8% to finish above $20 an ounce for the first time since March 24, and gold futures added 0.8%.  Both went vertical at the open, and as Zero Hedge noted:  “Instead of the smack-down that we have seen around the 8 a.m. ET time each of the last 10 days, today gold and silver are spiking. It is unclear what the catalyst is – just as it is never clear what the catalyst for the monkey-hammerings are – but the timing with Putin’s retaliation threats (specifically against a major bank with a mysteriously active gold vault) suggest some causation.”

See also:

TF Metals Report/IRD:  Putin plays a golden card; The world slowly waves “good-bye” to the petrodollar

Wall St. Cheat Sheet/InvezzHere’s why you should buy silver; Commerzbank – Silver price decline may just be corrective

Peter Schiff/Bill Bonner:  The stealth rally – Gold under the radar;   America’s credit supercycle: The end is near

Reuters:  Bullion market eyes e-platform to revamp London gold benchmark

Bloomberg/Barron’s: Katsuyama, Narang, Lewis debate speed trading; Hedge funds are the real losers from high-speed trading

Mike Shedlock:  Supreme Court removes campaign caps; Worst congress money can bribe; Expect more divisive politics

 

Analyts Diff’r on Gold ‘Sentiment’

Posted by on April 2nd 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Media, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

AnalystsDiff'rOnGold

With gold and silver futures both slipping 0.3% on Tuesday, as stocks rose on what was described as “a record Fed-assisted window dressing operation,” Bloomberg cites an HSBC note concluding that the “near-term sentiment for gold appears negative,” with its recent decline “largely explained by the combination of receding geopolitical tensions and the Fed’s guidance for higher interest rates.” But according to two precious-metals strategists at UBS, gold’s “correction has been relatively orderly and interest to buy the dip is evident. This reflects the underlying improvement in sentiment towards gold – investors are acknowledging the value of holding gold to diversify portfolios and insure against tail risks and are therefore looking for opportunities to get in at better levels.”

See also:

321goldGold versus Silver

CNBC/Mineweb:  Why gold bears are watching U.S. payrolls; Analyst – Recent gold price decline surprising

John Rubino/Bloomberg:  Debt makes you dumb, Japanese edition; Yellen’s real-life examples of unemployed omit criminal records

New York/Zero Hedge9 gripes from a leading high-frequency trader about “Flash Boys“; HFT debate devolves into epic screamfest in milliseconds

Michael Lewis interviewed on “Fresh Air” and CNBC

Metals Pare Q1 Gains, but Trump Stocks

Posted by on April 1st 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsQ12014

After falling a fraction of a percent on Monday, gold and silver prices ended down about 3% and 7% respectively for March, but logged gains of 6.8% and 2% for the quarter. Reuters reports that “Gold largely ignored Yellen’s strong defense of U.S. easy-money policies on Monday, when she said the Fed’s ‘extraordinary’ commitment to boosting the economy will be needed for some time to come.” And MarketWatch cites a Naxis Metals Review report predicting a period of consolidation for gold and silver, “during which costs of production are likely to become a more important determinant of prices than the strength of demand,” but, “as these rising costs of production catch up with the (falling) price of gold and silver, so prices will form a base and eventually begin moving higher once more.”

See also:

Mineweb/In Gold We Trust:  Is Chinese gold demand really falling? Probably not; West to East gold exodus in full swing

Jesse’s Café Américain/SafeHaven:  Gold and silver charts – JPM throws down 229,400 ounces of gold to meet deliveries; A golden opportunity coming in silver

Commodity Trade Mantra:  The accidental end to silver price manipulation; Gold trading market is not “fixed” – it’s rigged

Mike Shedlock/Barry Ritholtz:  High frequency trading hits “60 Minutes” scrutiny – Trading or skimming?; High frequency trading is legalized theft

New York TimesReview – “Flash Boys” is “guaranteed to make blood boil”; Read an adaptation from the book

Hot Money Moves In, and Out, of Gold

Posted by on March 25th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

TheOldInOut-HotMoneyAndGold

Gold and silver futures ended off 1.9% and 1.2% on Monday, with gold’s fall attributed to the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar. In addition, MarketWatch cites a note from Commerzbank’s analysts saying that the drop was “due no doubt to further profit-taking after net long positions in gold were increased for the sixth week running in the week to 18 March.  At 121,100 contracts, they are currently at their highest level since the end of November 2012,” based on last Friday’s COT report.

But according to Dan Norcini, “Nearly all of those new longs were immediately under water as soon as the FOMC issued its statement last week. That and the fact that WWIII did not break out, as many of the perma gold bugs were predicting, was enough to turn the momentum back and that did it for the momentum-based funds. They are now selling.” And Bullion Vault‘s Adrian Ash adds:  “Buying gold we think is a smart idea. Chasing the price up…and then down…with gold futures and options is less clever. But it remains an ever-popular way of losing money for aggressive hedge funds and their formerly wealthy clients.”

See also:

ForexLive/Mineweb:  Will a golden cross save gold?; Gold uptrend to resume, silver ‘to rise faster’

Seeking Alpha:  Gold and silver could be in trouble

Bloomberg:  Silver vault for 600 tons starting in Singapore on demand

Zero HedgeMessage to the Fed - Here are a few things that you can’t do; In a world artificially priced to perfection, the imperfections appear

In Gold We Trust: Interview with Jim Rickards about his new book, “The Death Of Money

Wall Street on Parade:  Document – JPMorgan Chase bets $10.4 billion on the early death of workers