Archive for the ‘CFTC’ Category

Gold Seen as ‘Growth Uncertainty’ Hedge

Posted by on October 21st 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Interest Rates, Janet Yellen, Russia, Short Sellers, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GDPprojections

Spot gold and silver gained about a half a percent Monday on what MarketWatch describes as a combo platter of “global economic uncertainties and overseas demand.”  It cites an analysis by Sharps Pixley, which observes that “While the sentiment towards gold has been soured given little inflationary pressure, the global equity rout and the on-going geopolitical risks have led to a rising demand for gold as an uncertainty and a portfolio hedge.”

“Concern that economic malaise in Europe will spread has helped revive gold demand,” reports Bloomberg, noting that “The 39 percent jump in net-long positions in futures and options last week was the biggest since June, U.S. data show.” And according to a UBS analyst quoted, “This scenario continues to be supportive for gold, as it allows for more room to rebuild positions in the near term should investor doubts on global growth and uncertainties on the timing of Fed rate hikes linger.”

See also:

Bullion Star/Jesse’s Café Américain: The Chinese precious metals market is on fire; Lower gold prices prompt large BRIC purchases

Bullion Street/Sprout Money:   India’s Diwali festivities could push gold higher; Why the Argentinean situation should make you buy gold

Hard Assets Investor/SilverSeek:  David Morgan on why $17 silver is unsustainable; Why worry about bullion silver?

Fox Business/Zero Hedge:  Jim Rickards:  Inflation-deflation tug-of-war means more QE; Santelli & Schiff: “A messy exit is a given… Ending QE will plunge U.S. into severe recession”

Peak Prosperity/Wolf Street:  How the Fed is purposely attacking savers – But bungling badly as it does; Designated losers of monetary policy

Wall Street on Parade/Confounded Interest:  Yellen -  Average net worth of 62 million U.S. households is $11,000; Worries that bottom 90% of Americans don’t own enough assets

China Gold: Production to Slow, Imports to Grow

Posted by on October 18th 2014 in Bart Chilton, CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

ChinaGoldProduction

The growth in Chinese gold mine output is expected to drop from 6% this year to about 1% in 2018, says the analytics firm Business Monitor International.  It attributes the decrease to declining ore grades and waning profitability, which, reports Reuters, “will pave the way for rising imports to meet persistent strength in demand from Chinese consumers,” according to an analyst for the company.

And on Thursday, MarketWatch cited a note suggesting that “support for gold may come from seasonal demand out of India ahead of this month’s religious festivals, wrote strategists at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. September Indian trade data showed gold imports soared by 450% year-over-year to $3.75 billion, they said, which indicates Indian consumers haven’t been deterred from buying large quantities of gold by import restrictions. ‘If this should turn into a trend, it would doubtless lend support to the gold price,’ they said.”

See also:

SilverSeek/Reuters: Gold and silver end mixed on the week; Gold posts weekly gain on economic fears, U.S. Fed view

Mineweb:  Lawrence Williams:  The sky is falling! Should you buy gold and silver?

Zero Hedge:  Yellen translated – “Let them eat cake“; Calling the Fed’s bluff

Alasdair Macleod/GoldPrice.org:  Market Report: Gold benefits from market uncertainty; Price climbed over two crucial resistance levels this week

Mining.com/King One Eye:  Extreme precious metal shorting peaks; Why gold will keep shining

PTTM/MarketWatch/Bloomberg:  Former CFTC crusader Bart Chilton says he doesn’t feel bad in heart in shift to HFT advocate

Wall Street on Parade:  New book – Sen. Charles Schumer was regular visitor to Madoff offices

Silver Seen Gaining on Gold

Posted by on October 17th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

G:Sratiodrop

With the gold/silver ratio at 71.4 on Thursday, Bloomberg‘s “Chart of the Day,” from 2012 on in the above, cites a forecast by UBS that has the ratio falling to 65.6 in 12 months. That calculation is based on UBS’s bearish forecast of $16 for silver and $1,050 for gold. According to one of the bank’s Singapore-based analysts, the gold/silver ratio currently “stands near crisis levels, which ignores the fact that economic activity next year should accelerate, with developed markets advancing and emerging ones moderating somewhat. Increases in silver ETFs suggest that the holding power of silver investors is immense and the metal still attracts physical investors.”  More from Mineweb‘s Lawrence Williams:  “Expect big silver price surge if gold stays positive.”

See also:

SilverSeek/Coin News:  Gold and silver end mixed as stocks stabilize; U.S. Mint sales – Core sets and Silver Eagles lead

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Cap, cap, cap – The fingerprints of officialdom were all over the markets today; Fed’s Bullard and the Plunge Protection Team to the rescue

WSJ/David Stockman:  Bullard says he would consider continuing QE after October; Now comes the “specter of deflation” – The money printers’ latest scam

Pragmatic CapitalismSo much for rate increases…

TF Metals Report/Alhambra Partners:  The current cap in gold; Another reminder gold is not often as it seems

Reuters/Businessweek:  45% of Americans say avoiding international air travel; America’s Ebola preppers go shopping for Clorox

Ebolisis

Metals Shrug Off Stock Selloff

Posted by on October 16th 2014 in CFTC, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Interest Rates, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

DowPlunge

Gold and silver prices continued their steady advance on Wednesday, with futures gaining 0.9% and 0.4% respectively as the Dow ended down 173 points, despite a late-session surge, and the U.S. dollar hit a five-week low.  Before stocks reversed course, Dan Norcini noted that gold “has been able to shrug off the selling pressure coming in from those selling it to cover losses in stocks but is having some difficulty getting through the $1250 level. Silver is being drug lower by copper but getting some buying related to gold’s good showing.” He concludes that given “the current equity weakness, unless we get some dose of economic data that is surprisingly strong … gold is drawing support from ideas that any notion of the Fed raising interest rates soon is effectively DOA for the time being.”

See also:

Confounded Interest/MarketWatch:  Stock market’s ‘Bloody Mary Morning‘; Tumultuous stock market plagued by ‘mini flash crashes

Short Side of Long/Telegraph:  Crude signaling weak economy; World economy so damaged it may need permanent QE

Seeking Alpha:  Why low interest rates are giving gold the buy signal; Trouble looming for the U.S., but not gold

Zero Hedge/Sovereign ManAll that is broken with the U.S. financial system in one chart; One simple chart to explain the defining problem of our times

Bloomberg/Mineweb:  Gold imports by India seen rising more than fourfold last month; Imports at a new high

Financial Times/GATA:  Swiss National Bank fights to block public gold vote; Gold stubs SNB’s toe, and the Financial Times says ‘ouch!

Metals Trade In Narrow Range; More Upside Ahead?

Posted by on October 15th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Syria, Ted Butler, USD, Wall Street | 1 comment

MetalsUpsideAhead

Gold and silver futures gained 0.3% each on Tuesday, while spot prices fell a similar percentage, reports Reuters, noting that global growth anxieties “sent U.S. 30-year bond yields below 3 percent for the first time since May 2013, while benchmark 10-year yields fell to a 16-month low of 2.18 percent. ‘U.S. Treasury yields at these levels are not pointing to a rosy economy,’” according to a COMEX gold options trader, who predicted that “Gold and silver should have more upside after they have spent a long time in the bear market.”

See also:

MarketWatch/Coin News:  Global growth concerns bring gold new shine; Gold nears 4-week high; Silver Eagle sales top 35 million y-t-d

Daily Reckoning/Seeking Alpha:  Jim Rickards   A win-win scenario for gold investors; Silver to rocket but when?

Gold Silver Worlds:  Ted Butler’s silver price outlook – Why this time could be different

Reuters/SRSrocco Report: Silver price-fixing lawsuits consolidated in Manhattan federal court; Bankers manipulation of gold & silver – Proof in the demand data

Wall Street on Parade/IRD:  The stock market has lost confidence in central banks as gods; Is the money printing facade cracking?

Zero Hedge:  What the Fed does next; The QE4 countdown has begun

Gold Flows East, Will Pricing Follow?

Posted by on October 14th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, India, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 AsianPricingPush

With gold and silver futures ending up 0.7% and 0.2% respectively on Monday, as both the U.S dollar and stock markets fell, Coin News cites an analysis that “More safe-haven demand was featured amid the recent U.S. stock market sell-off. Short covering by the futures traders, whose bearish bets recently are not paying off, and bargain hunting in the cash market were also seen in gold to start the trading week.”

“Also underpinning gold was Chinese economic data for the third quarter suggesting the economy likely grew at its weakest pace in more than five years,” reports Reuters, leading investors to speculate that “Beijing might roll out more stimulus measures.” The data also showed that “Gold got a boost from a strong rebound in Chinese imports of industrial commodities in September.”

The Reuters article notes that “Singapore launched 25 kg (around 804 ounces) gold contracts on Monday, the latest Asian country to start exchange-traded contracts with the aim of providing a regional benchmark price.” The Wall Street Journal spotlights this shift in a feature headlined “Asian market hubs move into gold.” Click-thru on Google for the entire article or read an excerpt here.

See also:

Bullion Street/SRSrocco Report:  Gold trades above $1,200 on return of physical demand in India, China; Physical gold investment – The U.S. ranks worst in the world

Bullion Star:  Koos Jansen – 2013 Chinese gold demand was 2000 tonnes, says Shanghai Gold Exchange chairman; Listen to an interview with Jansen

Mineweb/Seeking Alpha:  Silver in supply deficit but price unmoved so far; Do silver shorts know there is a physical supply deficit?

Jesse’s Café Américain/Bloomberg:  Gold and Silver charts – A little flight to safety; S&P 500 slides to cap worst three-day drop since 2011

Zero Hedge:  This is what happens when someone is desperate to sell $750 million of stocks: Is this the real growth scare that markets fear?

Arabian Money:   Will gold and silver prices continue to go up as stocks go down?

Metals Surge With Stocks on ‘Decidedly Dovish’ Fed

Posted by on October 9th 2014 in Bitcoin, CFTC, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | 1 comment

FedMinutes09:14

Spot gold and silver reversed losses on Wednesday to end with gains of about 1% after the release of September’s FOMC minutes, at which point the precious metal and equity markets were said to have “headed north like scalded cats, because of the decidedly dovish flavor of the Fed talk.”  The minutes found “a number of participants” noting that “economic growth over the medium term might be slower than they expected if foreign economic growth came in weaker than anticipated.”

“We’ve seen a fundamental shift here from the Fed where everything was leaning toward being hawkish a month ago to seeing the Fed a little more cautious and open to keeping monetary policy relatively loose for an extended period of time.” according to a commodity analyst quoted by Bloomberg.  It also cites an economist as saying, “Not only are they not ready to raise rates, they don’t even want people to think they’re ready to raise rates, so it’s not even on the radar screen.” The Dow had its best day of the year, which Reformed Broker Josh Brown lampoons with the above chart and the headline:  “Stocks explode higher on fears of renewed economic weakness.”

See also:

Reuters/Zero Hedge:  U.S. Fed frets over strong dollar, global woes; Panic buying ensues after FOMC minutes unleash weaker dollar

Dan Norcini:  FOMC minutes chasing gold bears out; Silver showing some signs of bottoming?

Profit Confidential/Arabian MoneyA rational look at silver; Bitcoin speculators being crushed will they now move into silver?

Wolf Street:  The calm before the storm in the gold market

MWC News/GATA: Towards one quadrillion U.S. dollars in derivatives; Financial Times – Banks plan to write off derivatives when a counterparty fails

Of Two Minds:  Crony capitalism is kryptonite to democracy and the real economy

Metals Rise as Dollar Drops Most In a Year

Posted by on October 7th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsRiseOnDollarDrop

After falling below $1,200 last Friday with the release of September’s jobs report, Monday saw investors having second thoughts about the data. Gold rebounded 1.3% and silver more than doubled gold’s gains, soaring almost 3%. A Reuters‘ article attributes the turnaround to a “sharp retreat” in the U.S. dollar [see above chart] that “sparked fresh physical demand and short covering.” It quotes one metals’ strategist as saying, “The spate of economic news has put downward pressure on gold, but the payrolls report might have painted a much better picture for the job market than what it really is,” specifically stagnant wages. “The dollar fell as much as 0.9 percent against a basket of 10 currencies,” reports Bloomberg, “as uneven U.S. labor-market data fuels speculation on when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.”

See also:

Dan Norcini/Coin News:  Macro trade reverses from Friday; Gold bounces above $1,200; Silver Eagles hurdle 34 million

Seeking Alpha/Sovereign ManRecord shorting in silver; This one chart shows exactly how undervalued gold is right now…

Trading Floor:  Are you aware of the potential Swiss gold shock?

Zero Hedge:  Will gold crash with the Dow… or soar?; 10 reasons why reserve currency status is an “exorbitant burden

Bloomberg:  The world’s most powerful central banker: Janet who?

Jobs Report: 230,000 Shades of Grey

Posted by on October 4th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

230,000ShadesOfGrey

Gold and silver were said to have been “hit hard today in honor of the non-farm payrolls report. It sent gold negative for the year, with the spot price falling as low as $1,189 on Friday before ending off 1.8%, on a report that was described as both “beating expectations,” and “ugly,” notwithstanding the “joyous headlines” on Fox Business and CNBC.  The 248,000 new jobs went inordinately to workers in the youngest and oldest age groups, wage gains continued to be stagnant, and the number of those that have checked out of the labor force hit a record high.

“Strengthening payrolls are going to add the perception that the Fed is going to raise rates sooner,” said one research analyst quoted by Bloomberg, a perception he sees as “negative for gold.” But with the latest round of QE winding down, it’s also argued, in a cogent analysis at TF Metals Report, that “Without the constant dump of fresh greenback into the global banking system, we are right back to where we were in 2008. Namely, deflation.” And while this will initially drive metals lower, the Fed, with its stated mission to prompt unemployment and inflation, “will be forced to act … Deflation is their number one enemy and they will do anything (and this includes QE4) to avoid it!”

See also:

TradePlacer/Eric Sprott:  Why there is still hope for gold bulls; Metals vastly oversold from naked shorting

KWN:  Worried about today’s gold & silver smash – Just read this; Man who executed QE1 for Fed says own gold, fiat will burn

Coin News:  U.S. Mint sells 1.65 million Silver Eagles in three days, 2.74 million this week

Bullion Star:  New York Fed gold holdings tumble 15 tonnes in August:  Could it be sie Germans?

GoldCore/BloombergNew gold rush cometh with global bond market on edge of ‘cliff’; Humans lose to machines in $500 billion-a-day U.S. bond market

Wolf Street:  This chart shows how you get screwed in the stock market

Metals Take Small Steps in Right Direction

Posted by on October 3rd 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SmallStepAs gold futures inched down on Thursday, and silver added about a half a percent, Comerzbank analysts noted that “Gold and silver have recovered somewhat from their respective multi-month and multiyear lows.” This as the U.S. dollar and the euro are said to “have turned modestly corrective this week, with the euro being boosted amid disappointment that the ECB didn’t make that final leap into QE.”

And, Reuters reports that “pro-democracy rallies in Hong Kong underpinned gold prices,” quoting one metals analyst as saying: “With the likelihood of further weakness in equity markets, coupled with the still-volatile situation in Hong Kong, we would rather not want to be short gold here, as we think the precious metal may benefit from some short-covering heading into the weekend.”

See also:

Nikeei Asian Review/NY Times:  China trying to avert another Tiananmen in Hong Kong; Mainland Chinese tourists get a glimpse of rebellion

Examiner.com:  China will use gold and gold pricing to force global currency reset

Coin News/Bloomberg:  U.S. Mint coins gain again; Gold sales at Perth Mint reach 11-month high as prices retreat

USA Gold:  U.S. Eagle gold and silver coin sales surged in September

SilverSeek/Daily Reckoning:  Gold to silver ratio – sentiment; 4 ways to make a fortune with one precious metal

Bloomberg: High-speed trader accused of commodity market ‘spoofing’; Is the New York Fed a pushover for big banks? Dudley fires back

Public Integrity:  Megabanks lock up prison financial services – Government gives no-bid contracts

Metals Rise as Airlines Sink Stocks

Posted by on October 2nd 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Media, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | 1 comment

FlightToQuality

Spot gold and silver ended up 0.5% and 1.4% respectively on Wednesday, with the gains attributed to a September slow down in U.S. manufacturing growth, a flat U.S. dollar and a stock sell-off that was led by shares in airlines and travel booking companies, based on fears about ebola.

“One catalyst for gold could be a flight to quality bid if equities continue to deteriorate,” said a trader quoted by MarketWatch, who added that “From a timing perspective, the best opportunity would likely come when the dollar finally pauses to consolidate its current gains. Even the temporary dissipation of such a headwind would likely lead to a sharp rally.”

See also:

Hard Assets Investor/SilverSeek:  Gold bulls hanging on in battle vs. surging U.S. dollar; Dollar is the last stop before gold & silver spike

Seeking Alpha:  Investors fleeing euro & yen, could U.S. dollar be next currency to crumble?

Coin News/SRSrocco Report:  Gold rises in October start; U.S. Mint coin sales explode; The U.S. Mint sells over 750,000 Silver Eagles in one day

Mining.com:  Demand for physical gold remains strong as bullion banks suppress prices

Zero Hedge/Bill Bonner:  Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio – “There is always a downturn”; What CNBC isn’t telling you about the end of QE

CBC/Reuters:  China warns Hong Kong protesters of ‘unimaginable consequences‘; Security firm – Advanced iOS virus targeting protestors

Gold/Silver Ratio Tops 70

Posted by on October 1st 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, Wall Street | 1 comment

Gold:SilverRatioTops70

With spot silver slumping 2.5% on Tuesday, and silver futures diving 19% for the quarter, the biggest drop since mid-2013, the falling price is bringing out the coin buyers.  The 4.1 million 2014 American Silver Eagles sold in September more than doubled August’s total, and was the “highest since sales of 5,354,000 in March,” reports Coin News.  “Silver Eagle sales for the year are at 32,251,000, the second quickest pace in the coin’s 29-year history.”

An Economic Times article deems silver to be a “better investment bet than gold,” given silver’s sharper fall in price, compared to gold’s, along with silver’s rising industrial demand.  It also points out that the gold/silver ratio, which hit 71.2 on Tuesday, is “much above the 10-year average of 57.75 times. So the risk-reward ratio is more in favor of silver.”

See also:

Numismatic News:  Patrick Heller – Silver gets cheaper relative to gold

Reuters/Dan Norcini:  Gold posts first quarterly loss this year as dollar soars; EuroZone inflation data hammers the euro

SafeHaven: Does surging demand for gold and silver coins signal a bottom?

Bullion Star/USA Gold:  China aims to surpass U.S. in official gold reserves; Why China thinks gold is the buy of the century

Zero Hedge:  Why is China hoarding gold? Alan Greenspan explains

BBC/Reuters:  Hong Kong democracy protesters defiant on National Day; Protests approach potential National Day flashpoint

Wall Street on Parade/Washington Times:  Carmen Segarra – Wall Street’s Spy vs. Spy; Sen. Elizabeth Warren calls for corruption investigation of Federal Reserve