Archive for the ‘CFTC’ Category

Fed Seen ‘Trying to Bluff the Market’

Posted by on August 23rd 2014 in Bart Chilton, CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Janet,Jackson

At the end of a down week for gold and silver, off some 1.8%  and .7% respectively, both were up slightly on Friday as Ukraine held sway, with 130 trucks from Russia’s long-stalled “aid” convoy rolling across the border into Ukraine, which characterized the breach as a “direct invasion.” Not so direct was Fed Chair Yellen, whose speech at Jackson Hole was seen as “noncommittal,” and even “confusing,” while an analyst quoted by Bloomberg saw misdirection:  “They’re trying to bluff the market,” he said of the Fed. “They’re trying to warn investors about the potential for rate increases, without actually implementing a rate increase. I think that will strengthen the trading range for gold.”

See also:

GoldSeek/The Sovereign Investor:  Gold rising-rate fallacy; Inflation, interest rates, and why you should own gold

Gold Switzerland:  Gold unloved and undervalued

Hard Assets Investor/Dan Norcini:  Commodity ETF flows:  Money enters GLD & SLV; Aggressive hedge fund selling plagues silver

Got Gold Report:  Revolving Door Watch – High-frequency trading critic Bart Chilton joins HFT lobby effort

Zero Hedge/Jesse’s Café Américain:  South African bank – Give us your gold; A bond paid for & denominated in gold

Reuters/Mineweb:   China gold exchange gains traction as yuan reforms stir interest; Russia leading central bank gold buyer, but China – who knows?

NY Times/CNN:  NATO – Russians open fire in Ukraine; Is Obama heading toward airstrikes in Syria?

Metals Still Not Moving Much; Fed Split on Rate Rise

Posted by on August 21st 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GoldStayingPuts

By one account, gold and silver prices “seem determined to hold on here,” as they continued to trade in a narrow range on Wednesday, with spot silver up 0.2% and gold off 0.4%.  Reuters attributes the drop in gold to gains in the dollar, “on economic optimism after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting showed the U.S. central bank has seen progress in the U.S. labor market.” But MarketWatch, describing “a growing division within the Fed” over the health of the labor market, reports that “a majority still don’t believe there’s been enough progress to consider altering interest rates soon.” The July minutes were also dismissed as “a market diversion until Jackson Hole.”

See also:

Zero Hedge: Jackson Hole – ‘Tremendous’ downside risks if Yellen doesn’t go full-dovish

Street Talk Live:  The illusion of strength; Alternative measures suggest weaker economy

Reuters/Seeking Alpha:   Fading volatility promises long period of gold stagnation; Silver prices will remain rangebound

Got Gold Report:  Heckle if you want, but be prepared for anything in gold and silver

Hard Assets Investor/Casey Research:  Gold/silver ratio says silver is cheap, but it can get cheaper; Silver – As close to a no-brainer investment as it gets

Business Insider:  Ten countries hoarding enormous piles of gold

Hot Spots Give Gold Floor, But Don’t Send it Through the Roof

Posted by on August 20th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Gold&GeopoliticalRisk

“Gold obviously didn’t like the U.S. CPI and housing data, which boosted the dollar,” said a Saxo Bank manager, speaking about a 0.1% increase in the monthly inflation rate, and July’s 15.7% jump in U.S. home construction.  But despite that, spot gold was off only 0.2%, while spot silver took a 1% hit. And according to an analyst quoted by MarketWatch, gold will likely remain in a narrow trading range, “unless by some miracle, all the tensions in the world are sorted out. A doubtful scenario.  I hasten to add that gold is not the perfect safe haven, far from it, but it does knee-jerk react to headlines, and as such, the downside should be limited for the time being.”  But that said, gold is also not going through the roof during this period of global tensions, as evidenced by the above chart. Grant William’s looks at what’s behind “Gold’s sudden ignorance of geopolitical risk.”

See also:

Jesse’s Café Américain:  The paper metals are a charade

Reuters/BullionStar.com:  China said to allow 3 more banks to import gold; East Asia geared up for renminbi gold trading

GoldSeek/GATA:  The U.S. gold in Fort Knox is secure, gone, or irrelevant?; U.S. gold reserve likely has been leased out, Grant Williams tells KWN

CEO.caBig move brewing for gold

Of Two Minds/Tim Iacono:  Are capital inflows propping up U.S. markets?; Stocks or bonds – Which has it right?

Bloomberg:  Only rich know wage gains with no raises for U.S. workers

ProPublica/TomDispatch.com:  The best reporting on federal push to militarize local police; One nation under SWAT

Metals Seen Biding Time ‘Till at Least September

Posted by on August 19th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Janet Yellen, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SeptemberSurge

A rising dollar and an equity rally on the perception that Ukraine tensions had eased, were said to be the driving factors behind a 0.4% drop in spot gold on yet another mixed day for the metals that also saw silver add 0.3%. “The market decided that since shooting had not broken out in the Ukraine that all is well and it was time to bulk up on the risk trade, albeit with low volumes,” according to a post at Jesse’s Café Américain, which calls this “a very cynical, Fed-fueled market.”

And in looking at when gold and silver might break out of their narrow trading ranges, Tim Iacono concludes that “Uncertainty over developments in Ukraine and Iraq should produce enough safe haven demand to keep metal prices from falling far during the last two weeks in August, but it seems any substantive rally will have to wait until at least September.”

See also:

Got Gold Report/ETF Daily News:  Comex Swap Dealers remain hugely short silver futures; How speculation fits in to the silver price forecast

SRSrocco Report:  Gold and silver – The eternal monetary couple; How the U.S. dollar reserve currency dies… slowly at first, then all at once

Peak Prosperity:  A brief history of U.S. money

USA Gold/Ciovacco Capital:  Why the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates soon; Jackson Hole: Covering excuses to keep rates low?

Of Two MindsLoss of faith in the Fed; Have we forgotten what an authentic market is?

NYT Magazine:  Paper boys – Inside the dark, lucrative world of consumer debt collection

Russia, Ukraine Stand Off; U.S. Shoppers Stand Down

Posted by on August 14th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, JPMorgan, Middle East, Russia, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 ShoppersStandDown

Silver futures finished off 0.3% on Wednesday, which is what gold ended up, with the impetus being July’s flat retail sales, described as “an appalling number” that “has faded the notion of a hike in the interest rate by the Fed, at least today.” And while U.S. data held sway over geopolitics, fighting resumed between Israel and Hamas, U.S. troops are on the ground in Iraq, and the Russian aid convoy headed to Ukraine has gone to ground at a Russian military base,  some 300 miles from its Ukrainian destination of Luhansk.  This as Ukraine’s Interior Minister declared that “No Putin ‘humanitarian convoy’ will be permitted to travel through the territory of Kharkiv region.”

See also:

Zero Hedge:  Stocks up, bonds up, gold up, oil up, dollar up, f’d up; Saxo Bank warns of 3 ‘other’ geopolitical risks investors are ignoring

ReutersCommodity future – Islamic State militants grab new weapon – Iraqi wheat

BullionStar.com/Profit ConfidentialSilver scarce in Shanghai, futures curve in backwardation; The world supply of gold bullion is shrinking

The Gold Report:  Jim Rickards and Peter Schiff discuss global gold markets

Reuters:  U.S. Mint to use new silver benchmark for coin sales, purchases; London gold fix lawsuits to be consolidated in New York

bookcoverWall Street on Parade:  How high up did the Madoff fraud go at JPMorgan?

Read the first chapter of  JPMadoff: The Unholy Alliance Between America’s Biggest Bank and America’s Biggest Crook

Silver Snaps Loss Streak; Eagles Heat Up

Posted by on August 7th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, General Economy, Gold, Monetary Policy, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 SilverEagleSalesHeatUp

Concerns about the situation in Ukraine boosted gold futures 1.8% on Wednesday and silver futures added 1% to snap a four-session losing streak. Silver fared better in the spot market, rising 1.7% compared to gold’s 1.6% increase.  Gold was also said to have benefited from data showing that Italy slid into recession in the second quarter, for the third time since 2008.  And, American Silver Eagle gained for the the third straight day, reports Coin News, surpassing 27 million for the year “to maintain a pace that is the second quickest in the coin’s 29-year history.”

See also:

SafeHaven/Got Gold ReportSilver pyramid power; Right or wrong, a great spot for a silver bounce

Mineweb:  Central banks continuing to boost gold reserves

Bloomberg/Telegraph: Russia sanctions accelerate risk to dollar dominance; Putin signs historic $20bn oil deal with Iran to bypass Western sanctions

Jesse’s Café Américain: Currency wars and the inevitable banquet of consequences

Ciovacco Capital/Peak ProsperityScenarios for a vulnerable stock market; Is this decline the real deal?

Reuters/WSJ:  High-frequency trading takes root in U.S. securities class actions; How one whistleblower turned the tables on high-frequency traders

Silver and Gold Decouple; Silver Coin Sales Rebound

Posted by on August 6th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Silver&GoldDecouple

Spot gold and silver prices decoupled on Tuesday, with the latter off 1.8% while gold added 0.2%, reports Reuters, “as a tumble in U.S. equities and worries about escalation of military action in eastern Ukraine helped bullion recover earlier losses driven by bullish U.S. economic data. Silver and gold were both pressured early by a higher dollar, and according to one analyst quoted by Bloomberg, “there is little physical demand for silver.”  But while the article points out that the U.S. Mints’s July sales of silver coins were off 27 percent from June, Coin News reports that the mint’s bullion coin sales advanced for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, and silver coin sales are almost double last week’s total of 335,000 ounces.

See also:

BullionVault:  Gold investment sentiment rises for first time since February; Silver – 3 new tech uses to grow 275% by 2018

Bloomberg/Dallas Morning News:  Gold seen reaching $1,400 by USA Gold as U.S. inflation quickens

David Stockman:  Market maven warns Fed’s 3rd bubble this century heading for 20% tumble

GATA/IRDFinancial Times repudiates explanation for removal of gold manipulation report; The CFTC’s Commitment Of Traders data is rigged after all

Zero Hedge:  4 million fewer jobs: How the BLS massively overestimated U.S. job creation

CNN/The InterceptNew leaker disclosing U.S. secrets, government concludes

Job Gains, 209,000; Wage Gains, 1¢

Posted by on August 2nd 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

WagesUpOneCent

Metals’ futures ended mixed on Friday with silver falling 0.2% and gold adding 1% on what was seen as a “disappointing” jobs report that sent the dollar “broadly lower” against other major currencies. And while the 209,000 new jobs was the first time since 1997 that the U.S. has added 200,000+ jobs for six straight months, the report also showed an increase in part-time workers and stagnant wages, with the average hourly rate gaining a mere penny. This, according to economists cited by Bloomberg, supports Fed Chair Yellen’s view that “there’s still plenty of slack left in the labor market, bolstering the case for continued stimulus.”

And with the U.S. stock market suffering its worst week in two years, one metals’ trader tells MarketWatch that “You would expect some fund flow into the metals, with the equity price plunge, but it’s conceivable that the market’s dinosaur brain perceives a 2008 event occurring, which suggests a rush to cash.”  He adds that gold and silver “may also be the victim of investors caught in the equity market who are trying to raise cash, due to margin calls; gold remains the most liquid asset for that purpose.

See also:

SRSrocco Report:   Chinese silver inventories nearly 90% depleted at Shanghai Futures Exchange

Acting Man/BullionVaultRisk pops in to say hello; Numb to risk, oblivious to gold

USA Gold:  The fallacy of the inverse correlation between interest rates and gold; The gold owner’s guide to the rest of 2014

GoldCoreGold’s sweet spot – strongest months are August, September, November & January

Alasdair Macleod:  U.S. dollar Fiat Money Quantity carries on growing despite tapering

Comstock Partners/Daily Reckoning:  This is what happens when the Fed tightens; Six major flaws in the Fed’s economic model

MarketWatch/Bloomberg:  Behold, the 17,000% overdraft charge; With ‘protection‘ like this, who needs enemies?

Metals Prepare to Run News ‘Gauntlet’

Posted by on July 30th 2014 in CFTC, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

NewsGauntlet

Gold and silver futures inched down and up repectively on Tuesday in advance of Wednesday’s “gauntlet” of GDP and Fed news. Gold was also said to have been pressured by a rise in U.S. consumer confidence — debt collectors be damned! and a stronger U.S. dollar, which hit a 2014 high against the euro on Tuesday. Wondering “if gold would be able to hold $1280 should the euro fall accelerate,” Dan Norcini opines that “the only thing currently holding gold higher is geopolitical tension. Were it not for those events ( and who knows how all this is going to end) gold would be lower, especially with the dollar strength we are witnessing. Those events should continue to bring some safe haven buying into the yellow metal for the time being which will work to mitigate any sharp drops in price that could occur.”

See also:

BullionVault/Mineweb:  Gold prices move “sideways” ahead of “auto-pilot Fed” and US jobs data; Watch U.S. GDP, jobs reports, not Yellen for gold impact

Telegraph:  Sharp interest rate hikes could trigger global growth shock

David Levenstein/MarketWatch:  While other currencies emerge as an alternative to U.S. dollar, gold will also benefit; Foreigners complain about the dollar but keep buying it

SafeHaven/SilverSeekSilver set to star; Silver prices – megaphone patterns

Zero Hedge:  Jim Grant- Gold is the ultimate inoculation against harebrained central bankers”

CNBC Calls Out Faber, Culls Out His Comeback

Posted by on July 29th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Media, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

FaberPunchLine

As portfolio manager John Hussman warns of “an equity bubble, and a highly advanced one,” another veteran investor and frequent crash-predictor says the current stock market environment is ‘like being in the Twilight Zone,” and argues that “When there is a correction, it will be very severe.” Enter Marc Faber, who, after predicting that a 20 to 30% correction will begin within a few months, CNBCportfoliowas taken to task by a CNBC host for continually predicting corrections that have yet to happen. “I started to work in 1970,” said Faber, “and over that career, somehow, somewhere, I must have made some right calls; otherwise I wouldn’t be in business.” At that point, reports Zero Hedge, “What CNBC then edited out of the transcript was Faber pointing out his 22% annualized return in his publicly-viewable funds since then and asking, “I wonder what the CNBC portfolio would look like since 1999?”

See also:

Bloomberg/NY Times:  Gold futures climb as violence in Ukraine boosts demand

Aden Forecast/Got Gold ReportStill looking good; COMEX swap dealers hedging a massive long play on silver?

Reuters/GoldCore:  Silver bullion banks accused of manipulation in U.S. lawsuit

GATAAnother class-action suit charges gold market manipulation; Possible discrepancy in GLD‘s gold bar accounting

Jesse’s Café Américain/Resource Investor:  What is the effective limitation on the Fed’s ability to ‘print money’?; Why we should fear the REPO

Metals Retreat; West Bank Palestinians Advance

Posted by on July 25th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, General Economy, Gold, IMF, Middle East, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsRetreatPalestiniansAdvance

Gold and silver ended down about 1% and 2.5% respectively on Thursday, representing a buying opportunity for one scribe, as global strife took a back seat to what was seen as positive economic news from the eurozone and China, and on U.S. jobless claims hitting an eight-year low.  But citing earlier “negative surprises” from the U.S. and Chinese economies, and ongoing geopolitical risks, the IMF lowered its global growth forecast for 2014.

With gold dropping below $1,300 and stalling at its 200-day moving average, Reuters quotes one observer as saying, “To be fair, I think some people have a right to be disappointed that the stresses around the world haven’t led to a continued rise in the price of gold. We’re probably in oversold territory right now where gold is concerned, but we also seem to be pulling into an area between $1,290 and $1,280 that should offer some support to the market.”

See also:

Dan Norcini/Reuters:  China gold demand slumps 19.4 pct on yr, but output rises

Ted Butler:  Silver tightness

Hard Assets Investor:  Gold’s fair value – bear says $800, bull says $5,000

Investing.com/SafeHavenHappy markets in an unhappy world; Clear and present danger zone

Bloomberg/Business Insider:  Don’t tell anybody about this story on HFT power Jump Trading, one of 10 being eyed by the SEC

Wall Street On Parade:  Lawsuit stunner – Half of futures trades in Chicago are illegal wash trades

Through the Revolving Door to Lobby

Posted by on July 24th 2014 in CFTC, General Economy, Gold, India, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SwapsThis!

An epic farce” is how Zero Hedge characterizes Scott O’Malia’s spin through the revolving door just two days after resigning as an CFTC commissioner, to become the new head of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), “the biggest banking group that has constantly opposed every intervention and attempt to regulate the swaps market by the CFTC since the Lehman crisis.”

It describes ISDA as “a global OTC derivative lobby group, counting the world’s largest investment banks among its members, [that] has RegulateThis!frequently fought regulatory efforts to reform the market after the financial crisis.”  And, goes on to note that “Even an otherwise impartial Reuters appears outraged by this blatant and painfully clear example of government capture of ‘public servants’ by those who have dangled carrots of money in exchange for lobby (and future employment promise) favors, and thus set the rules, courtesy of people like O’Malia.”

See also:

Coin News:  Gold, silver prices change narrowly

Alhambra Partners/Gold Report:  Speculating on the gold supply; Money managers – Three reasons why gold and gold stocks will rise

Got Gold Report:  COMEX Producer/Merchants in gold, view from 30,000 feet an eye opener

David Morgan/Mineweb: Smoking out Indian gold, central bank relaxes loan rules; Gold & silver bears – Was last week your best shot?

Pragmatic Capitalism:  Chart of the day – Inflation fears are rising