Archive for the ‘CFTC’ Category

Metals Gain Ahead of Fed

Posted by on September 17th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, India, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

China'sStealthQE

Gold and silver advanced for the second and third session respectively, with gold said to be “getting a bid as the dollar weakened and China has announced some stimulus program,” described as a “stealth QE” that injected the equivalent of some $81 billion of liquidity into five banks.  The metals were also seen benefiting from talk that the Fed will slow-walk any eventual interest rate increases, in advance of  Wednesday’s conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting. And with silver outperforming gold, Reuters reports that “a technical indicator showed Tuesday’s gains sent the white metal out of oversold conditions.”

See also:

Hard Assets Investor:  Bulls shouldn’t be worried, they should buy if gold falls to $1,180

Michael Pento/Seeking Alpha:  Why Goldman Sachs is wrong on gold; Complete 2nd Quarter gold all-in costs show that ‘peak gold’ may be a reality

GoldCore/Reuters:  Gold demand in India triples as China launches global gold bourse this Thursday

Bloomberg:  China may boost gold reserves amid imbalances in holdings; Biggest banks said to overhaul FX trading after scandals

Wall Street On Parade:  There’s a bear growling in this bull market; Today’s stock market – Shades of the company town

Of Two Minds/Mises CanadaJanus Yellen and the great transition from risk-on to risk-off; Economic policy treats symptoms, not underlying causes

‘Retail Buyers’ Spike Silver ETF Holdings

Posted by on September 16th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Janet Yellen, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverETFholdings

With gold and silver futures inching up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively on Monday, holdings at the world’s five largest silver ETFs hit a record high on Friday, reports Reuters, driven by a one percent rise in the U.S.-based SLV, which posted its biggest one-day inflow since May 1 of this year. The article cites precious metals dealers as saying that “Long-term silver retail buyers stepped up demand after silver broke below the key $19 level last week.”  And a partner at a commodities investment firm said that he expects “ETFs in silver to outperform those in gold as small silver speculators continue to come onboard.”

See also:

NASDAQ/SRSrocco Report:  Is silver a value at current levels?; The collapse of U.S. silver stocks as public debt skyrockets

Dan Norcini/Got Gold Report:  Hedge funds exiting gold once again; Koos Jansen – China again buys the dip in gold and silver gets scarcer

Bloomberg/Times of India:  India August gold imports surge 176%; China to invest $100 billion in India over 5 years

Telegraph/Ron Paul:  Anxious Scottish investors buying gold; Will the Swiss vote to get their gold back?

Ciovacco Capital/WSJ:  Fed: The key portion of this week’s statement; How does Janet Yellen spend her time? - Check her calendar

Down Week Also Brings Talk of Peak

Posted by on September 13th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Iraq, Middle East, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

?PeakGold?

With gold and silver falling some 3 percent on the week, USA Gold’s market report observes that “A lessening of geopolitical tensions (albethey superficial), expectations of diverging monetary policies and the resulting rise in the dollar are all contributing to the weaker tone in the yellow metal. However, a couple key factors suggest that the downside is limited from here. Previous forays below $1200 have prompted strong buying interest,” and, “the supply of gold is in fact tightening already.”

It cites a Wall Street Journal interview earlier this week with the CEO of mega-miner Goldcorp, Chuck Jeannes, who said that miners have reached “peak gold,” which he sees as “very positive” for gold’s long-term price. More on “peak” prospects, from Mineweb‘s Lawrence Williams, who writes that “Jeannes is almost certainly correct in his prediction that global gold output is about to turn downwards, and may well remain on a downwards path for many years to come.”

See also:

Mining.com/Got Gold Report:  Heavy precious metals shorting is bullish; Speculator ‘insurance shorts’ and swap dealer shorts likely to spark a counter rally in gold

SilverSeek:  Will the real silver commercial traders stand up?

Reuters/Bullion Star:  India’s love affair with gold may be over; India’s June gold import highest in 12 months

Seeking Alpha/Forbes:  Gold – Russia, Iran and China are ‘Doomsday Preppers‘; Transacting in gold can shaft the IRS

Street Talk Live5 things to ponder -”bear-ly” extant; The 7 deadly sins of investing

The Automatic Earth:  The Fed has a big surprise waiting for you

Wall Street Journal/Of Two Minds:  The Federal Reserve’s too cozy relationship with banks; Why has classical capitalism devolved to crony-capitalism?

TPM-AP/Liberty Blitzkrieg:  Has the world been bamboozled by the ISIS PR machine?; Florida Congresswoman – “I’m glad people have this 9/11 mentality again”

Metals Pull Back; Time to Pull the Trigger?

Posted by on September 12th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

AreWeThereYet?

Following what was described as “the usual London-New York hit applied to the precious metals” Thursday morning, gold futures ended off 0.5% to hit a seven-month low, and silver gave up Wednesday’s gains, and then some, falling 1.7%. “It’s hard to get excited about gold in this current environment when the dollar is rising and the political tensions have eased,” said a money manager quoted by Bloomberg, adding that investors “don’t want gold when rates are expected to rise, while inflation has remained muted.” But further out, an analyst cited by MarketWatch, “said he’s not bearish on gold over the longer term due to geopolitical uncertainties and growth problems in Europe and China. Evidence of increasing inflation pressures in the U.S. could also push gold higher.”

See also:

Gold Switzerland/GoldCore:  Gold market’s weak hands have been shaken out; China holds “Gold Congress” – Positioning itself as global hub

SilverSeek/TradePlacer: Interview with Gary Christenson – Gold prices in 3 waves, silver is inexpensive & the stock market/gold relationship; Christenson – The silver sentiment cycle suggest higher silver prices in the years ahead

Hugo Salinas Price/GoldSeekFiat money and independence for Scotland; John Browne – A wee problem for the UK

Reuters:  Fed’s rate guidance on chopping block, new exit plan nears

Zero Hedge: Why U.S. interest rates can never rise (in one chilling CBO chart); How you know the time for more QE has come

Peter Schiff/Dan Norcini:  Doubling down on inflation; No inflationary pressure until wages move higher

Marketplace/CNBC:  Wage growth in the U.S. is stuck in the ’70s; Why Main Street isn’t creating jobs

Hit ‘N Run Gold Timers Seen Moving On

Posted by on September 11th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Middle East, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Sentiment Shift

“Gold is finally getting close to a bottom in prices,” declares MarketWatch‘s observer of all things contrarian, Mark Hulbert. He explains that “what contrarians focus on is market sentiment, and on that front there has been a big change: For the first time in a long time, a large number of short-term gold timers have decided to throw in the towel. As a result, the market-timing community on balance is now more bearish than it has been in 14 months — which, according to the contrary logic of contrarian analysis, is a bullish development. The last time the typical gold timer was as gloomy as he is today, gold began a two-month rally in which it gained more than $200.” More on contrary investing, and why silver, especially the physical variety, may now be “the epitome of a contrary opinion asset.”

See also:

Coin News/BullionVault:  Gold falls, silver inches up and U.S. Mint coins gain; 3 reasons why the gold/silver ratio “will fall” as 2014 ends

Acting Man/Daily Reckoning:  Gold gets whacked – What happens next?; Jim Rickards – A win-win scenario for gold investors

Zero Hedge/Street Talk Live:  Why interest rates will stay low (or what happens when you cry “recovery” for 5 years in a row)

Bill Bonner/GoldSeek:  What I learned in China about the fate of the U.S. dollar; China pulling the strings

WSJ/OilPrice.com:  China deploys troops in South Sudan to defend oil fields; Islamic State’s ultimate goal- Saudi Arabia’s oil wells

Mining.com:  Goldcorp CEO – We have hit peak gold

Dollar Strength Trumps Hotspots—For Now

Posted by on September 10th 2014 in CFTC, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Russia, Silver, Ukraine | Be the first to comment!

PumpMeUpBefore spot gold and silver staged a late rally Tuesday to end up a fraction of a percent, they were weighed down by the dollar hitting a 14-month high against the euro, and what was seen as an easing of tensions in Ukraine:  “Political turmoil in various parts of the world that made gold attractive earlier this year seems to have eased, and now economics is overriding geopolitical events,” according to a precious metals dealer quoted by Bloomberg. But a USA Gold market report, while acknowledging that “recent cease-fires in Ukraine and in Gaza have perhaps prompted the unwinding of some safe-haven positions,” reminds that “the underlying problems that have resulted in these global hotspots are a long-way from being resolved.”

See also:

GoldCore/TradePlacer:  Macro factors dominating gold price as U.S. dollar outweighs physical demand & investor flows; Rising dollar weighing on gold & silver, but short-term reversal possible

Financial Times:  India prepares for shining return of gold demand

Bullion Star/Reuters: German gold repatriation accelerating; Peru’s gold output will likely fall 20 percent this year – official

Jesse’s Café Américain/Seeking Alpha:  Learning to love the Fed’s bubbles our only choice; Tracking the decline in risk aversion

Wall Street on Parade: Contagion – What the next Wall Street crisis will look like

CNBC/ValueWalk:  American stock holdings at 18-year low; CNBC’s ratings drop to 21-year low

Hitmen vs. Headlines; Dow vs. Gold

Posted by on September 9th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Dow:GoldRatioChart

Following what was described as “the usual hit,” silver and gold futures were off 1% on Monday, with MarketWatch attributing gold’s drop to “weak headline risk,” citing one analyst who argues:  “Curiously, geopolitical tensions do not seem to be providing it with much of a bid, and we suspect that this is because the apparent political upheavals are not impacting the global equity or bond markets other than to cause them to rally.” But a Seeking Alpha post points out, as illustrated by the above chart, that despite the Dow reaching a record high, the “Dow/gold ratio is still low on an historical basis,” remaining 69% below its all-time high.

See also:

USA Gold/Dan Norcini:  Gold retreats as euro and yen weakness pushes dollar higher

Seeking Alpha/Zero Hedge: Fake dollar strength continues to make gold an opportunity; Obama’s former chief economist calls for an end to U.S. dollar reserve status

Got Gold Report/BullionStar.com:  For Sept/Oct, watch CFTC’s ‘other reportables’ in silver futures; Another week of strong gold demand in China; Silver remains scarce in Shanghai

Reuters:  Ownership of UK gold up for negotiation if Scotland votes “yes”; New poll shows rival camps neck-and-neck

GoldSeek/Prudent Bear:  John Mauldin – Europe takes the QE baton; Doug Noland – Do whatever it takes to shock and awe

CBC/Project SyndicateDesperately seeking economic health in the era of free money; Kenneth Rogoff – The exaggerated death of inflation

Metals Firm Up After Falling Off

Posted by on September 4th 2014 in CFTC, ECB, General Economy, Gold, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsFirmUp

Spot gold and silver ended up a few-tenths of a percent on Wednesday, reports Reuters, attributing gold’s gains to “lingering tensions” over Ukraine, following cease-fire “confusion,” and a weaker dollar, both of which were said to have prompted “bargain hunting and short covering” following Tuesday’s sharp drop. But it also quotes UBS strategist, Edel Tully, as suggesting that “the lack of physical demand makes gold more vulnerable to the downside should U.S. employment data surprise on the upside this Friday.”

See also:

321 Gold/Hard Assets Investor:  Gold and silver – Jobs report tactics; Surging dollar sinks gold, but greenback’s upside looks limited

USA Gold/Gold Investing News:  Gold consolidates as focus shifts to ECB policy

Acting Man/Gold Silver Worlds:  Gold stocks and gold – Potentially bullish developments; Gold model projects prices from 1971 to 2021

Zero Hedge:  Icahn, Soros, Druckenmiller, and now Zell – Billionaires quietly preparing for the plunge; Message from top managers – “Prepare for turmoil

David Stockman/Of Two Minds: World’s financial system is rife with “stimulus” junkies; Central bank monetary policy enables us to put off real reforms

Yahoo! Finance:  Mysterious fake cellphone towers are intercepting calls all over the U.S.

Gold ‘Punished’ by Surging Dollar

Posted by on September 3rd 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, General Economy, Gold, Russia, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GoldPunishedByDollar

Those who have yet to employ September’s “buy gold now” strategy, received a discount Tuesday.  On what was described as a “volatile day” in the markets, spot gold, and silver, fell more than 1.5% as the dollar surged against the euro, with the strengthening dollar said to have finally caught up gold.  Sharps Pixley’s Ross Norman tells Reuters that “It’s when the dollar hits big numbers that gold gets punished and this is clearly one of those moments.  There is a lot to be concerned about on the political and economic front (but) people tend to get inured to the idea of bad news and it doesn’t affect them anymore.”

See also:

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Gold and silver charts – Cap, cap, pounce

Reuters/Deutsche Welle:  U.S., allies to stage exercises in West Ukraine as battles rage in East; Russia, China break ground on joint mega gas pipeline

Got Gold Report-Bloomberg:  China banks boost precious metals hoard amid lease demand

BullionVault/BullionStar.com:  China leads “strong recovery” in photovoltaic silver demand; Chinese weekly gold demand highest since February

GoldSeek:  Central banks get discounts for trading everything through CME Group and Comex

USA Watchdog/Arabian Money:  John Williams – U.S. economy in severe trouble; Finance professionals split over likelihood of a crash

See Ya in September!

Posted by on August 30th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

HopeSpringsSepternal

Gold and silver futures fell about a half a percent on the final U.S. trading day in August, but it’s said that “September should be glowing for gold,” with the biggest boost likely coming from India. The article accompanying the above chart points out that Indian seasonal buying which is forecast to be better than last year, “typically increases with the country’s festival period, which runs from late August to October….” A Wall Street Journal feature on India’s ‘improving appetite‘ for gold, is echoed by a Scrap Monster report that gold premiums in India have more than doubled this week, “in anticipation of towering festive season demand.”

See also:

Jesse’s Café Américain/SafeHaven:  Coppock Indicator – An intermediate term bottom for gold is in; Enormous paper silver trading volumes

BullionStar.com/Smaulgld:  Precious metals markets – China vs. US; The Importance of gold to nations & individuals

WSJ/USA Gold:  Bernanke – 2008 meltdown was worse than Great Depression; Don’t think it can’t happen again

Businessweek/CBS News: For every education level, real wages have gone down so far this year; Americans fear economy is permanently scarred

CNBC/Dow Jones: One-percenters bullish on US despite ‘failed’ Obama presidency; Fed’s Lockhart & Fisher were active personal asset traders in 2013

Zero Hedge:  Marc Faber slams US intervention in Middle East, warns “whole region will blow up

Dollar Seen Losing Altitude

Posted by on August 28th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Middle East, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

DollarThrottlesBack

“The numerous sources of geopolitical crisis are evidently preventing the gold price from slumping,” said Commerzbank’s head of research, after spot gold edged up 0.1% on Wednesday and silver added a couple ticks more to gain 0.3%.  Gold’s gain was also attributed to a drop in the dollar, but there’s more to come, according to the chief economist at Saxo Bank:  “Our major call is:  short the US dollar index and long commodities … USD will weaken significantly from mid-Q3 into Q1-2015. The market remains overexposed to the dollar and U.S. equities relative to the norm. Furthermore, with mid-term elections on November 4 the coming budget talks will have a hard time producing the convincing and long-term results needed.”

See also:

USA Gold/BullionStar.com:  The interest rate trap and what it means to the gold market; Chinese gold demand y-t-d, silver surprise

Foreign Affairs/Market Oracle:  Just-published article recommends policy shift that is very bullish for gold

Gold Switzerland:  Interviews with GoldMoney’s Alasdair Macleod and The Telegraph‘s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Financial Times/New York Times:  Central bankers face ‘confidence bubble’; A new reason to question the official unemployment rate

Daily Reckoning:  Steve Forbes interviews James Grant – Bubbles, bargains & everything in between

Fed Seen ‘Trying to Bluff the Market’

Posted by on August 23rd 2014 in Bart Chilton, CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Janet,Jackson

At the end of a down week for gold and silver, off some 1.8%  and .7% respectively, both were up slightly on Friday as Ukraine held sway, with 130 trucks from Russia’s long-stalled “aid” convoy rolling across the border into Ukraine, which characterized the breach as a “direct invasion.” Not so direct was Fed Chair Yellen, whose speech at Jackson Hole was seen as “noncommittal,” and even “confusing,” while an analyst quoted by Bloomberg saw misdirection:  “They’re trying to bluff the market,” he said of the Fed. “They’re trying to warn investors about the potential for rate increases, without actually implementing a rate increase. I think that will strengthen the trading range for gold.”

See also:

GoldSeek/The Sovereign Investor:  Gold rising-rate fallacy; Inflation, interest rates, and why you should own gold

Gold Switzerland:  Gold unloved and undervalued

Hard Assets Investor/Dan Norcini:  Commodity ETF flows:  Money enters GLD & SLV; Aggressive hedge fund selling plagues silver

Got Gold Report:  Revolving Door Watch – High-frequency trading critic Bart Chilton joins HFT lobby effort

Zero Hedge/Jesse’s Café Américain:  South African bank – Give us your gold; A bond paid for & denominated in gold

Reuters/Mineweb:   China gold exchange gains traction as yuan reforms stir interest; Russia leading central bank gold buyer, but China – who knows?

NY Times/CNN:  NATO – Russians open fire in Ukraine; Is Obama heading toward airstrikes in Syria?