Archive for the ‘China’ Category

Metals End Mixed; Stock Bear Rips Economy, ‘Moron’ Central Bankers

Posted by on October 24th 2014 in China, Euro, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Media, Monetary Policy, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

2015GDPgrowth

Spot silver added 0.6% and gold fell 0.9% on Thursday, as new U.S. unemployment claims held below 300,000 for the sixth straight week, the dollar rallied and the Dow surged on what were seen as strong earnings results.  But according to noted stock “über bear,” Albert Edwards, “The bottom line is that there is far too much over-confidence in the U.S. recovery. Fragile and vulnerable in itself, the U.S. recovery now battles against the rest of the world, which like a horror movie is dragging it down into a hellish Ice Age underworld.”

Armed with the above chart on 2015 GDP growth, Zero Hedge has more on Edwards’ latest warning:  “Simply put, the central banks for all their huffing and puffing cannot eliminate the business cycle. And they should have realized after the 2008 Great Recession that the longer they suppress volatility, both economic and market, the greater the subsequent crash. Will these morons ever learn?

See also:

Peak Prosperity/SafeHaven:  Why gold is undervalued, and poised to re-price upwards; Gold or crushing paper debt

P. Radomski:  Gold & silver trading alert: How will we know that the bottom is in?

SilverSeek/Silver Institute:  October Silver Eagle sales best ever, and with 10 days remaining; Silver investment may increase by one billion ounces over the next decade

Dan Norcini/Bill Bonner:  Gold mining stocks continue to sink; Huge upside in gold miners from here?

GoldSeek:  Chris Powell – The crucial questions financial journalism won’t ask & central banks won’t answer

USA Today/Naked Capitalism:  America’s perpetual state of emergency; The financialization of life

Gold Underpinned by ‘Über-Accommodative’ Monetary Policies

Posted by on October 22nd 2014 in China, ECB, Euro, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Interest Rates, Russia, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

UberGoldSpot gold and silver gained 0.3% and 0.6% respectively on Tuesday, while futures prices doubled up that percentage, on what a Bloomberg article sees as the perception that the Fed will continue its low interest rate policy.  It notes that interest rate futures “indicated the odds of a U.S. increase at about 46.2 percent by October 2015, down from 55 percent a week earlier.” That notion is seconded by a USA Gold market report that gold “remains underpinned by global growth risks and the expectations that the central banks of the world will maintain their über-accommodative policy stances in hopes of mitigating those risks.”  It adds that “The European Central Bank is in the forefront on that meme these days.”

See also:

Coin News/Motley Fool CA:  Gold hits 5-week high, Silver Eagle sales top 36 million; Why silver is poised to hit $50

Mineweb:  Lawrence Williams – Chinese and Indian gold buyers are back in the market in a big way

Arabian Money/DNA India:  Indian religious buying forecast to almost double this season; Mad about yellow – India’s love affair with gold

IB Times/SharelynxRussia’s gold rush: Putin orders gold reserve buying spree to beat Western sanctions

Gold Switzerland/GoldCore:  Will this save the Swiss financial system?; Poll shows pro-gold side in lead at 45%

60 Minutes:  Turning mushroom hunting into gold in the Yukon

Gold Seen as ‘Growth Uncertainty’ Hedge

Posted by on October 21st 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Interest Rates, Janet Yellen, Russia, Short Sellers, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GDPprojections

Spot gold and silver gained about a half a percent Monday on what MarketWatch describes as a combo platter of “global economic uncertainties and overseas demand.”  It cites an analysis by Sharps Pixley, which observes that “While the sentiment towards gold has been soured given little inflationary pressure, the global equity rout and the on-going geopolitical risks have led to a rising demand for gold as an uncertainty and a portfolio hedge.”

“Concern that economic malaise in Europe will spread has helped revive gold demand,” reports Bloomberg, noting that “The 39 percent jump in net-long positions in futures and options last week was the biggest since June, U.S. data show.” And according to a UBS analyst quoted, “This scenario continues to be supportive for gold, as it allows for more room to rebuild positions in the near term should investor doubts on global growth and uncertainties on the timing of Fed rate hikes linger.”

See also:

Bullion Star/Jesse’s Café Américain: The Chinese precious metals market is on fire; Lower gold prices prompt large BRIC purchases

Bullion Street/Sprout Money:   India’s Diwali festivities could push gold higher; Why the Argentinean situation should make you buy gold

Hard Assets Investor/SilverSeek:  David Morgan on why $17 silver is unsustainable; Why worry about bullion silver?

Fox Business/Zero Hedge:  Jim Rickards:  Inflation-deflation tug-of-war means more QE; Santelli & Schiff: “A messy exit is a given… Ending QE will plunge U.S. into severe recession”

Peak Prosperity/Wolf Street:  How the Fed is purposely attacking savers – But bungling badly as it does; Designated losers of monetary policy

Wall Street on Parade/Confounded Interest:  Yellen -  Average net worth of 62 million U.S. households is $11,000; Worries that bottom 90% of Americans don’t own enough assets

China Gold: Production to Slow, Imports to Grow

Posted by on October 18th 2014 in Bart Chilton, CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

ChinaGoldProduction

The growth in Chinese gold mine output is expected to drop from 6% this year to about 1% in 2018, says the analytics firm Business Monitor International.  It attributes the decrease to declining ore grades and waning profitability, which, reports Reuters, “will pave the way for rising imports to meet persistent strength in demand from Chinese consumers,” according to an analyst for the company.

And on Thursday, MarketWatch cited a note suggesting that “support for gold may come from seasonal demand out of India ahead of this month’s religious festivals, wrote strategists at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. September Indian trade data showed gold imports soared by 450% year-over-year to $3.75 billion, they said, which indicates Indian consumers haven’t been deterred from buying large quantities of gold by import restrictions. ‘If this should turn into a trend, it would doubtless lend support to the gold price,’ they said.”

See also:

SilverSeek/Reuters: Gold and silver end mixed on the week; Gold posts weekly gain on economic fears, U.S. Fed view

Mineweb:  Lawrence Williams:  The sky is falling! Should you buy gold and silver?

Zero Hedge:  Yellen translated – “Let them eat cake“; Calling the Fed’s bluff

Alasdair Macleod/GoldPrice.org:  Market Report: Gold benefits from market uncertainty; Price climbed over two crucial resistance levels this week

Mining.com/King One Eye:  Extreme precious metal shorting peaks; Why gold will keep shining

PTTM/MarketWatch/Bloomberg:  Former CFTC crusader Bart Chilton says he doesn’t feel bad in heart in shift to HFT advocate

Wall Street on Parade:  New book – Sen. Charles Schumer was regular visitor to Madoff offices

Silver Seen Gaining on Gold

Posted by on October 17th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

G:Sratiodrop

With the gold/silver ratio at 71.4 on Thursday, Bloomberg‘s “Chart of the Day,” from 2012 on in the above, cites a forecast by UBS that has the ratio falling to 65.6 in 12 months. That calculation is based on UBS’s bearish forecast of $16 for silver and $1,050 for gold. According to one of the bank’s Singapore-based analysts, the gold/silver ratio currently “stands near crisis levels, which ignores the fact that economic activity next year should accelerate, with developed markets advancing and emerging ones moderating somewhat. Increases in silver ETFs suggest that the holding power of silver investors is immense and the metal still attracts physical investors.”  More from Mineweb‘s Lawrence Williams:  “Expect big silver price surge if gold stays positive.”

See also:

SilverSeek/Coin News:  Gold and silver end mixed as stocks stabilize; U.S. Mint sales – Core sets and Silver Eagles lead

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Cap, cap, cap – The fingerprints of officialdom were all over the markets today; Fed’s Bullard and the Plunge Protection Team to the rescue

WSJ/David Stockman:  Bullard says he would consider continuing QE after October; Now comes the “specter of deflation” – The money printers’ latest scam

Pragmatic CapitalismSo much for rate increases…

TF Metals Report/Alhambra Partners:  The current cap in gold; Another reminder gold is not often as it seems

Reuters/Businessweek:  45% of Americans say avoiding international air travel; America’s Ebola preppers go shopping for Clorox

Ebolisis

Gold Flows East, Will Pricing Follow?

Posted by on October 14th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, India, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 AsianPricingPush

With gold and silver futures ending up 0.7% and 0.2% respectively on Monday, as both the U.S dollar and stock markets fell, Coin News cites an analysis that “More safe-haven demand was featured amid the recent U.S. stock market sell-off. Short covering by the futures traders, whose bearish bets recently are not paying off, and bargain hunting in the cash market were also seen in gold to start the trading week.”

“Also underpinning gold was Chinese economic data for the third quarter suggesting the economy likely grew at its weakest pace in more than five years,” reports Reuters, leading investors to speculate that “Beijing might roll out more stimulus measures.” The data also showed that “Gold got a boost from a strong rebound in Chinese imports of industrial commodities in September.”

The Reuters article notes that “Singapore launched 25 kg (around 804 ounces) gold contracts on Monday, the latest Asian country to start exchange-traded contracts with the aim of providing a regional benchmark price.” The Wall Street Journal spotlights this shift in a feature headlined “Asian market hubs move into gold.” Click-thru on Google for the entire article or read an excerpt here.

See also:

Bullion Street/SRSrocco Report:  Gold trades above $1,200 on return of physical demand in India, China; Physical gold investment – The U.S. ranks worst in the world

Bullion Star:  Koos Jansen – 2013 Chinese gold demand was 2000 tonnes, says Shanghai Gold Exchange chairman; Listen to an interview with Jansen

Mineweb/Seeking Alpha:  Silver in supply deficit but price unmoved so far; Do silver shorts know there is a physical supply deficit?

Jesse’s Café Américain/Bloomberg:  Gold and Silver charts – A little flight to safety; S&P 500 slides to cap worst three-day drop since 2011

Zero Hedge:  This is what happens when someone is desperate to sell $750 million of stocks: Is this the real growth scare that markets fear?

Arabian Money:   Will gold and silver prices continue to go up as stocks go down?

‘Oversold’ Metals ‘Bounce Firmly Off Support’

Posted by on October 11th 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Interest Rates, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | 1 comment

MetalsBounceBack

Gold stalled out on Friday, falling a fraction of a percent as the U.S. dollar rebounded, but silver inched up and both metals gained on the week, with gold adding about 2.7% and silver advancing 3.2%. In his weekly market report, Alasdair Macleod writes that “This week more than any other it became clear that the global economy is stalling,” which is “creating a two-way pull for gold and silver. Declining commodity prices coupled with a strong dollar have hit both precious metals hard since mid-August,” but gold and silver “have become oversold and as a result have bounced firmly off support at $1180 and $16.75 respectively.”

See also:

Coin News/Numismaster:  Gold, silver and U.S. Mint gold coin sales surge on week; Silver Eagle rationing on the horizon?

BullionVault/SafeHavenDitch dollars, buy gold. For now.; U.S. dollar super-overbought

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Wall Street says gold & silver are dodgy investments, but stocks & bond are such values?

Natural News:  Super-rich class scrambles to buy gold bars amid uncertainties in global fiat currency

Reuters/Bullion Star:  Chinese gold buying picks up after holiday, Indian premiums rise; Hawalla money transfer system plays intricate part in Indian gold smuggling

The Australian/Patrick Heller:  Bullion price will rise to meet ‘peak’ gold next year; Gold for profit or wealth preservation?

Gold Logs Safe-Haven Win on IMF Trim

Posted by on October 8th 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, Interest Rates, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | 1 comment

IMForecast

Spot gold and silver ended mixed on Tuesday, with gold gaining 0.4% to continue its rebound and silver easing 0.3%, but silver futures did add a penny.  Gold’s safe-haven appeal was seen increasing after Germany reported a dramatic 4% drop in industrial production from July, the biggest decline since 2009, and the IMF again lowered its global growth forecast for 2014 and 2015.  It also warned that financial markets “may have underpriced risks by not fully internalizing the uncertainties around the global outlook. A larger-than-expected increase  in U.S. long-term interest rates, geopolitical events, or major growth disappointments could trigger widespread disruption.”

See also:

P. Radomski:  Gold & silver trading alert – Huge reversal in USD and gold – finally!

GoldCore/SafeHaven:  Silver “particularly cheap” with “blood on the commodity streets”; Silver extremes say look at me

The Australian/USA Today:  Shanghai gold surprise in store; China currency push takes aim at dollar

GATA:  Tocqueville’s Hathaway: China has it right about gold and the dollar, in his Q3 letter to investors

Seeking Alpha/Reuters:  Fed’s Kocherlakota – Forget rake hikes in 2015;  It’s a ‘wintry economy‘ out there

David Stockman:  Inside September’s “born again” jobs report

Metals Rise as Dollar Drops Most In a Year

Posted by on October 7th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsRiseOnDollarDrop

After falling below $1,200 last Friday with the release of September’s jobs report, Monday saw investors having second thoughts about the data. Gold rebounded 1.3% and silver more than doubled gold’s gains, soaring almost 3%. A Reuters‘ article attributes the turnaround to a “sharp retreat” in the U.S. dollar [see above chart] that “sparked fresh physical demand and short covering.” It quotes one metals’ strategist as saying, “The spate of economic news has put downward pressure on gold, but the payrolls report might have painted a much better picture for the job market than what it really is,” specifically stagnant wages. “The dollar fell as much as 0.9 percent against a basket of 10 currencies,” reports Bloomberg, “as uneven U.S. labor-market data fuels speculation on when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.”

See also:

Dan Norcini/Coin News:  Macro trade reverses from Friday; Gold bounces above $1,200; Silver Eagles hurdle 34 million

Seeking Alpha/Sovereign ManRecord shorting in silver; This one chart shows exactly how undervalued gold is right now…

Trading Floor:  Are you aware of the potential Swiss gold shock?

Zero Hedge:  Will gold crash with the Dow… or soar?; 10 reasons why reserve currency status is an “exorbitant burden

Bloomberg:  The world’s most powerful central banker: Janet who?

Jobs Report: 230,000 Shades of Grey

Posted by on October 4th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

230,000ShadesOfGrey

Gold and silver were said to have been “hit hard today in honor of the non-farm payrolls report. It sent gold negative for the year, with the spot price falling as low as $1,189 on Friday before ending off 1.8%, on a report that was described as both “beating expectations,” and “ugly,” notwithstanding the “joyous headlines” on Fox Business and CNBC.  The 248,000 new jobs went inordinately to workers in the youngest and oldest age groups, wage gains continued to be stagnant, and the number of those that have checked out of the labor force hit a record high.

“Strengthening payrolls are going to add the perception that the Fed is going to raise rates sooner,” said one research analyst quoted by Bloomberg, a perception he sees as “negative for gold.” But with the latest round of QE winding down, it’s also argued, in a cogent analysis at TF Metals Report, that “Without the constant dump of fresh greenback into the global banking system, we are right back to where we were in 2008. Namely, deflation.” And while this will initially drive metals lower, the Fed, with its stated mission to prompt unemployment and inflation, “will be forced to act … Deflation is their number one enemy and they will do anything (and this includes QE4) to avoid it!”

See also:

TradePlacer/Eric Sprott:  Why there is still hope for gold bulls; Metals vastly oversold from naked shorting

KWN:  Worried about today’s gold & silver smash – Just read this; Man who executed QE1 for Fed says own gold, fiat will burn

Coin News:  U.S. Mint sells 1.65 million Silver Eagles in three days, 2.74 million this week

Bullion Star:  New York Fed gold holdings tumble 15 tonnes in August:  Could it be sie Germans?

GoldCore/BloombergNew gold rush cometh with global bond market on edge of ‘cliff’; Humans lose to machines in $500 billion-a-day U.S. bond market

Wolf Street:  This chart shows how you get screwed in the stock market

Metals Take Small Steps in Right Direction

Posted by on October 3rd 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SmallStepAs gold futures inched down on Thursday, and silver added about a half a percent, Comerzbank analysts noted that “Gold and silver have recovered somewhat from their respective multi-month and multiyear lows.” This as the U.S. dollar and the euro are said to “have turned modestly corrective this week, with the euro being boosted amid disappointment that the ECB didn’t make that final leap into QE.”

And, Reuters reports that “pro-democracy rallies in Hong Kong underpinned gold prices,” quoting one metals analyst as saying: “With the likelihood of further weakness in equity markets, coupled with the still-volatile situation in Hong Kong, we would rather not want to be short gold here, as we think the precious metal may benefit from some short-covering heading into the weekend.”

See also:

Nikeei Asian Review/NY Times:  China trying to avert another Tiananmen in Hong Kong; Mainland Chinese tourists get a glimpse of rebellion

Examiner.com:  China will use gold and gold pricing to force global currency reset

Coin News/Bloomberg:  U.S. Mint coins gain again; Gold sales at Perth Mint reach 11-month high as prices retreat

USA Gold:  U.S. Eagle gold and silver coin sales surged in September

SilverSeek/Daily Reckoning:  Gold to silver ratio – sentiment; 4 ways to make a fortune with one precious metal

Bloomberg: High-speed trader accused of commodity market ‘spoofing’; Is the New York Fed a pushover for big banks? Dudley fires back

Public Integrity:  Megabanks lock up prison financial services – Government gives no-bid contracts

Metals Rise as Airlines Sink Stocks

Posted by on October 2nd 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Media, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | 1 comment

FlightToQuality

Spot gold and silver ended up 0.5% and 1.4% respectively on Wednesday, with the gains attributed to a September slow down in U.S. manufacturing growth, a flat U.S. dollar and a stock sell-off that was led by shares in airlines and travel booking companies, based on fears about ebola.

“One catalyst for gold could be a flight to quality bid if equities continue to deteriorate,” said a trader quoted by MarketWatch, who added that “From a timing perspective, the best opportunity would likely come when the dollar finally pauses to consolidate its current gains. Even the temporary dissipation of such a headwind would likely lead to a sharp rally.”

See also:

Hard Assets Investor/SilverSeek:  Gold bulls hanging on in battle vs. surging U.S. dollar; Dollar is the last stop before gold & silver spike

Seeking Alpha:  Investors fleeing euro & yen, could U.S. dollar be next currency to crumble?

Coin News/SRSrocco Report:  Gold rises in October start; U.S. Mint coin sales explode; The U.S. Mint sells over 750,000 Silver Eagles in one day

Mining.com:  Demand for physical gold remains strong as bullion banks suppress prices

Zero Hedge/Bill Bonner:  Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio – “There is always a downturn”; What CNBC isn’t telling you about the end of QE

CBC/Reuters:  China warns Hong Kong protesters of ‘unimaginable consequences‘; Security firm – Advanced iOS virus targeting protestors