Archive for the ‘Federal Reserve’ Category

Metals Still Not Moving Much; Fed Split on Rate Rise

Posted by on August 21st 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GoldStayingPuts

By one account, gold and silver prices “seem determined to hold on here,” as they continued to trade in a narrow range on Wednesday, with spot silver up 0.2% and gold off 0.4%.  Reuters attributes the drop in gold to gains in the dollar, “on economic optimism after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting showed the U.S. central bank has seen progress in the U.S. labor market.” But MarketWatch, describing “a growing division within the Fed” over the health of the labor market, reports that “a majority still don’t believe there’s been enough progress to consider altering interest rates soon.” The July minutes were also dismissed as “a market diversion until Jackson Hole.”

See also:

Zero Hedge: Jackson Hole – ‘Tremendous’ downside risks if Yellen doesn’t go full-dovish

Street Talk Live:  The illusion of strength; Alternative measures suggest weaker economy

Reuters/Seeking Alpha:   Fading volatility promises long period of gold stagnation; Silver prices will remain rangebound

Got Gold Report:  Heckle if you want, but be prepared for anything in gold and silver

Hard Assets Investor/Casey Research:  Gold/silver ratio says silver is cheap, but it can get cheaper; Silver – As close to a no-brainer investment as it gets

Business Insider:  Ten countries hoarding enormous piles of gold

Hot Spots Give Gold Floor, But Don’t Send it Through the Roof

Posted by on August 20th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Gold&GeopoliticalRisk

“Gold obviously didn’t like the U.S. CPI and housing data, which boosted the dollar,” said a Saxo Bank manager, speaking about a 0.1% increase in the monthly inflation rate, and July’s 15.7% jump in U.S. home construction.  But despite that, spot gold was off only 0.2%, while spot silver took a 1% hit. And according to an analyst quoted by MarketWatch, gold will likely remain in a narrow trading range, “unless by some miracle, all the tensions in the world are sorted out. A doubtful scenario.  I hasten to add that gold is not the perfect safe haven, far from it, but it does knee-jerk react to headlines, and as such, the downside should be limited for the time being.”  But that said, gold is also not going through the roof during this period of global tensions, as evidenced by the above chart. Grant William’s looks at what’s behind “Gold’s sudden ignorance of geopolitical risk.”

See also:

Jesse’s Café Américain:  The paper metals are a charade

Reuters/BullionStar.com:  China said to allow 3 more banks to import gold; East Asia geared up for renminbi gold trading

GoldSeek/GATA:  The U.S. gold in Fort Knox is secure, gone, or irrelevant?; U.S. gold reserve likely has been leased out, Grant Williams tells KWN

CEO.caBig move brewing for gold

Of Two Minds/Tim Iacono:  Are capital inflows propping up U.S. markets?; Stocks or bonds – Which has it right?

Bloomberg:  Only rich know wage gains with no raises for U.S. workers

ProPublica/TomDispatch.com:  The best reporting on federal push to militarize local police; One nation under SWAT

Metals Seen Biding Time ‘Till at Least September

Posted by on August 19th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Janet Yellen, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SeptemberSurge

A rising dollar and an equity rally on the perception that Ukraine tensions had eased, were said to be the driving factors behind a 0.4% drop in spot gold on yet another mixed day for the metals that also saw silver add 0.3%. “The market decided that since shooting had not broken out in the Ukraine that all is well and it was time to bulk up on the risk trade, albeit with low volumes,” according to a post at Jesse’s Café Américain, which calls this “a very cynical, Fed-fueled market.”

And in looking at when gold and silver might break out of their narrow trading ranges, Tim Iacono concludes that “Uncertainty over developments in Ukraine and Iraq should produce enough safe haven demand to keep metal prices from falling far during the last two weeks in August, but it seems any substantive rally will have to wait until at least September.”

See also:

Got Gold Report/ETF Daily News:  Comex Swap Dealers remain hugely short silver futures; How speculation fits in to the silver price forecast

SRSrocco Report:  Gold and silver – The eternal monetary couple; How the U.S. dollar reserve currency dies… slowly at first, then all at once

Peak Prosperity:  A brief history of U.S. money

USA Gold/Ciovacco Capital:  Why the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates soon; Jackson Hole: Covering excuses to keep rates low?

Of Two MindsLoss of faith in the Fed; Have we forgotten what an authentic market is?

NYT Magazine:  Paper boys – Inside the dark, lucrative world of consumer debt collection

Metals Mirror Ukraine Volatility

Posted by on August 16th 2014 in CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, George Soros, Gold, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsMirrorUkraineVolatility

Gold and silver were as erratic Friday as the day’s news reports about whether or not Ukraine artillery destroyed parts of a Russian column that did or didn’t cross into Ukraine. The metals fell early, and hard, in what was described as “a pretty obvious takedown,” occurring as initial inspections of the “humanitarian convoy” vehicles, which definitely did not cross the border, came up “almost empty,” according to a BBC correspondent.

Then, writes Dan Norcini, recapping the action in gold, “around mid-morning, up went the yellow metal, recapturing the $1300 level as reports filtered into the market that Russian forces had crossed the Ukrainian border and been engaged by their troops.” When all was said, but far from done, spot gold and silver ended off 0.7% and 1.4% respectively, with their near-term direction possibly hinging on the answer to this question.

See also:

Bloomberg/WSJ:  First daily silver price set after end of London fixing

GoldCore:  New ‘LBMA silver price’ – Still not transparent

RT.com/GoldSeekRussia seeks safe haven in gold, away from dollar and euro; No escape from the dollar as the currency standard

Zero Hedge/Bullion Baron“Soros put” rises to record – Is the billionaire investor betting on a market crash?

Mineweb/Barron’s:  Soros invests in gold stocks, Paulson holds his big ETF position – rode gold higher in 2Q

Short Side of Long/MarketWatchAging bull! – 283 weeks; Four signs this bull market is on its last legs

Confounded Interest:  Falling 10Y Treasury yields, flattening curve are not signs of a dynamic economic recovery

PMs Gain on Jobless Claims; Russian APCs Enter Ukraine

Posted by on August 15th 2014 in Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

JoblessClaimsGain

Silver was back in positive territory on Thursday and gold inched up again as U.S. jobless claims rose more than forecast, clocking in at a six-week high of 311,000.  “Concerns about the labor market are back,” according to one broker quoted by Bloomberg, who added that “safe-haven bids continue to come in because of the geopolitical developments.” Those bids were likely tempered on Thursday by Russian President Putin toning down his rhetoric on Ukraine. But that was before reporters for the Guardian and the Telegraph wrote of spotting Russian armored personnel carriers and support vehicles crossing the border into Ukraine.

Picture 9And concerning a report from the World Gold Council that Q2 demand for gold fell by 16% from 2013, USA Gold points out that “While not as strong as the seemingly insatiable demand seen in 2013, 964 tonnes is still a pretty darn good number; better than Q3 and Q4 of last year. As Jim Rickards noted in a recent interview, ‘[B]ig banks looted the GLD warehouse,’ of 500 tonnes in 2013. That’s a one-time event. ‘You can’t do that twice,’ said Rickards.”

 See also:

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Gold and silver charts – Take your stinking paws off our monetary metals

Mineweb:  Global gold demand returning to positive long-term trends; Russia may become world’s #2 gold miner this year

Reuters/Daily Reckoning:  Putin says Russia should aim to sell energy in rubles; The three biggest problems of the “dollar standard

Seeking Alpha:  Gold, the Fed and the inflation shuffle

Reuters/Brietbart.com:  White House loosens restrictions on lobbyists; Study – You have ‘near-zero’ impact on public policy

Tim Iacono:  One more thing to worry about

Russia, Ukraine Stand Off; U.S. Shoppers Stand Down

Posted by on August 14th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, JPMorgan, Middle East, Russia, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 ShoppersStandDown

Silver futures finished off 0.3% on Wednesday, which is what gold ended up, with the impetus being July’s flat retail sales, described as “an appalling number” that “has faded the notion of a hike in the interest rate by the Fed, at least today.” And while U.S. data held sway over geopolitics, fighting resumed between Israel and Hamas, U.S. troops are on the ground in Iraq, and the Russian aid convoy headed to Ukraine has gone to ground at a Russian military base,  some 300 miles from its Ukrainian destination of Luhansk.  This as Ukraine’s Interior Minister declared that “No Putin ‘humanitarian convoy’ will be permitted to travel through the territory of Kharkiv region.”

See also:

Zero Hedge:  Stocks up, bonds up, gold up, oil up, dollar up, f’d up; Saxo Bank warns of 3 ‘other’ geopolitical risks investors are ignoring

ReutersCommodity future – Islamic State militants grab new weapon – Iraqi wheat

BullionStar.com/Profit ConfidentialSilver scarce in Shanghai, futures curve in backwardation; The world supply of gold bullion is shrinking

The Gold Report:  Jim Rickards and Peter Schiff discuss global gold markets

Reuters:  U.S. Mint to use new silver benchmark for coin sales, purchases; London gold fix lawsuits to be consolidated in New York

bookcoverWall Street on Parade:  How high up did the Madoff fraud go at JPMorgan?

Read the first chapter of  JPMadoff: The Unholy Alliance Between America’s Biggest Bank and America’s Biggest Crook

‘Cautious’ Investors Seen Keeping Gold Fashionable

Posted by on August 12th 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Iraq, Middle East, Russia, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GoldShirt

The value of an Indian businessman’s new gold shirt was virtually unchanged Monday, while silver, a more practical wearable, gained 0.8%.  Gold’s flatness was attributed to “rising global equities, and an apparent easing of tensions over Ukraine and the Middle East,” with stock markets said to have “largely ignored news Russia would send an aid convoy to eastern Ukraine, a move Western officials have said could serve as a pretext for an invasion.”

But “world inserurity” is still seen as likely positive for gold, according to former Bank of England governor Mervyn King.  And, as one analyst quoted by MarketWatch points out:  “Interestingly, while the yen has unwound, other safe-haven assets such as gold haven’t seen much movement at all. Perhaps this highlights the degree of cautiousness investors are still exercising at the moment.”

See also:

Bullion Vault/Casey ResearchSilver vs. gold investing; Top 7 reasons I’m buying silver now

BullionStar.com/Gold Silver Worlds:  Chinese gold demand 1094 metric tons y-t-d, silver premium at record high; Is gold demand in China really collapsing?

SafeHaven/Gold Scents:  Potpourri of chartology – Precious metals, U.S. stocks and energy;  Are stocks finally starting the topping process?

Confounded Interest/CSMThe Gilded Age: A tale of the Federal Reserve; Wall Street – Whose bull market is it?

GoldSeek/Mineweb:  Dennis Gartman – Gold vs. The Force; Gartman reckons end-game for gold price management could be nigh

Guardian/Daily Beast/Vox:  U.S. denies role in alleged plot to oust Iraqi prime minister; U.S. bombing its own guns in Iraq

Gold Up and Down on Crises Fluctuations

Posted by on August 9th 2014 in ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Gold&Crises

Reuters reports that before ending off 0.3% on Friday, “gold rallied to a three-week high on news U.S. aircraft bombed Islamic fighters marching on Iraq’s Kurdish capital of Arbil.  But safe-haven buying dried up after Russia’s Defense Ministry said it had finished military exercises near its border with Ukraine.” And after also losing a fraction on Friday, silver was down 1.8% for the week, while gold logged a 1.4% gain. But when it comes to 2014 bullion coin sales, silver’s thumping gold.

See also:

BullionVault/Yahoo Finance:  The dollar, gold & Middle East oil; Why this is the moment of truth for the gold trade

Dan Norcini:  Ukraine events supporting gold, but for how long?

Bloomberg/Time: World war on Russia’s mind when U.S. duels over Ukraine; Putin’s popularity soars to 87% in the face of adversity

Bloomberg/Telegraph:  Draghi says geopolitical risks to economy increasing; Germany close to recession as ECB admits recovery is weak

GATA/Zero Hedge:  Alasdair Macleod:  No market crashes anymore, just currency risk; Marc Faber – By printing money, the Fed has delayed the inevitable ‘cleaning’ process

King One Eye/Ted Butler:  Two precious metal must-sees; Oh, Oh – The dangers inherent in gold and silver pool accounts

Coin News/Numismaster:  U.S. Mint suspends in-person sales of Kennedy gold coin; JFKa Ching – First four gold Kennedys go for $20,000

Besieged Iraqis Added to Chaotic Global Mix

Posted by on August 8th 2014 in ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Iraq, Middle East, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

TrappedIraqis

Silver futures finished off 0.2% on Thursday while gold futures added 0.3%, with Bloomberg attributing the gain to a decline in U.S. stocks on “concern that escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine will hurt the global economy,” and quoting one analyst as saying that “Some money is flowing into gold from equities because of concerns about Europe.” Comex gold futures for December delivery settled at some $1,312 an ounce.

And Reuters adds Iraq to the mix:  “Bullion climbed after the New York Times reported that U.S. President Barack Obama was considering air strikes and emergency relief airdrops to help 40,000 religious minorities in Iraq, who are trapped on a mountaintop after threats by Islamic militants.” Both the Times and McClatchy report, according to Kurdish and Iraqi sources, that airstrikes have begun, but the Pentagon denies that the U.S. carried out the strikes.

See also:

MarketWatch: Dow closes at 3-month low as investors move into gold and U.S. Treasurys

USA Gold/Hard Assets Investor:  Gold back above $1,300 on geopolitical risks, but dollar limits

Seeking Alpha/Jim Rickards:  Russians at the gate – buy gold; Cold War 2.0 is a financial war

Motley Fool Canada:  4 reasons I prefer investing in silver to gold

TradePlacer/Bill Bonner:  Is the mother of all bubbles about to burst in 2014?; Three signs that never fail to predict a bear market

Mineweb/Financial Express:  Gold – Been down so long it looks like up to me!; Gold delivery on India’s MCX hits highest since April last year

The Denver Channel:  Hundreds make mad dash to buy gold JFK coins at U.S. Mint in Denver

 

Silver and Gold Decouple; Silver Coin Sales Rebound

Posted by on August 6th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Silver&GoldDecouple

Spot gold and silver prices decoupled on Tuesday, with the latter off 1.8% while gold added 0.2%, reports Reuters, “as a tumble in U.S. equities and worries about escalation of military action in eastern Ukraine helped bullion recover earlier losses driven by bullish U.S. economic data. Silver and gold were both pressured early by a higher dollar, and according to one analyst quoted by Bloomberg, “there is little physical demand for silver.”  But while the article points out that the U.S. Mints’s July sales of silver coins were off 27 percent from June, Coin News reports that the mint’s bullion coin sales advanced for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, and silver coin sales are almost double last week’s total of 335,000 ounces.

See also:

BullionVault:  Gold investment sentiment rises for first time since February; Silver – 3 new tech uses to grow 275% by 2018

Bloomberg/Dallas Morning News:  Gold seen reaching $1,400 by USA Gold as U.S. inflation quickens

David Stockman:  Market maven warns Fed’s 3rd bubble this century heading for 20% tumble

GATA/IRDFinancial Times repudiates explanation for removal of gold manipulation report; The CFTC’s Commitment Of Traders data is rigged after all

Zero Hedge:  4 million fewer jobs: How the BLS massively overestimated U.S. job creation

CNN/The InterceptNew leaker disclosing U.S. secrets, government concludes

The Fall of Gold and Silver

Posted by on August 5th 2014 in China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

TheFallOfGold&Silver

With gold and silver futures off about a half-a-percent Monday, after dropping for each of the last three weeks,  Tim Iacono asks:  “Could a return to positive seasonal trends be in store for gold and silver?“  Referencing the above chart, showing that gold “has recently made a mockery of the regular seasonal patterns by moving opposite the norm over each of the last four months,” he cautions that the August-to-November period “may not follow the favorable seasonal trend either, particularly with the growing list of bearish factors that have emerged,” including the prospect of rising interest rates and the waning of safe-haven demand.

But more optimistically, he also argues that “as summer vacations come to an end, the outlook should improve, particularly if last week’s stock market rout turns into something much worse and the dollar rally fades.”  Add to that the fact that “gold and gold stocks remain two of the best performing asset classes this year and this has not escaped the notice of institutional investors and hedge funds who, in recent months, have been buying gold stocks when the broad stock market falters. If this carries over into the underlying market for gold and silver, a return to following very positive seasonal trends this fall could be in store.”

See also:

Got Gold Report:  Total Chinese reserves reach 15,000 tonnes

Louise Yamada/Mike Shedlock:  Gold chart – False breakdowns and breakouts suggest indecision; Saxo Bank economist-  Gold and silver major buy signal coming up

The Gold Report:   Tocqueville fund managers – Buy gold like it’s 1999

King One Eye/Bloomberg3 bullish facts for precious metals and miners; Gold industry takeovers climb to highest level in three years

MarketWatch:  That plunge in stocks is just the beginning; Brett Arends – Watch out for the corporate debt bomb

Zero Hedge/Washington PostDe-dollarization continues – Russian oligarchs shift cash to Hong Kong dollars on sanctions concerns

Job Gains, 209,000; Wage Gains, 1¢

Posted by on August 2nd 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

WagesUpOneCent

Metals’ futures ended mixed on Friday with silver falling 0.2% and gold adding 1% on what was seen as a “disappointing” jobs report that sent the dollar “broadly lower” against other major currencies. And while the 209,000 new jobs was the first time since 1997 that the U.S. has added 200,000+ jobs for six straight months, the report also showed an increase in part-time workers and stagnant wages, with the average hourly rate gaining a mere penny. This, according to economists cited by Bloomberg, supports Fed Chair Yellen’s view that “there’s still plenty of slack left in the labor market, bolstering the case for continued stimulus.”

And with the U.S. stock market suffering its worst week in two years, one metals’ trader tells MarketWatch that “You would expect some fund flow into the metals, with the equity price plunge, but it’s conceivable that the market’s dinosaur brain perceives a 2008 event occurring, which suggests a rush to cash.”  He adds that gold and silver “may also be the victim of investors caught in the equity market who are trying to raise cash, due to margin calls; gold remains the most liquid asset for that purpose.

See also:

SRSrocco Report:   Chinese silver inventories nearly 90% depleted at Shanghai Futures Exchange

Acting Man/BullionVaultRisk pops in to say hello; Numb to risk, oblivious to gold

USA Gold:  The fallacy of the inverse correlation between interest rates and gold; The gold owner’s guide to the rest of 2014

GoldCoreGold’s sweet spot – strongest months are August, September, November & January

Alasdair Macleod:  U.S. dollar Fiat Money Quantity carries on growing despite tapering

Comstock Partners/Daily Reckoning:  This is what happens when the Fed tightens; Six major flaws in the Fed’s economic model

MarketWatch/Bloomberg:  Behold, the 17,000% overdraft charge; With ‘protection‘ like this, who needs enemies?