Archive for the ‘Federal Reserve’ Category

Metals Drop On OPEC Production Punt

Posted by on November 28th 2014 in CFTC, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsSqueezed

Spot gold and silver ended off 1.9% and 4.3% respectively Friday, falling with oil as the U.S. dollar gained after OPEC left its production target unchanged at a meeting on Thursday. “It is a brave new world,” declared one analyst quoted by Reuters, “OPEC is clearly drawing a line in the sand at 30 million barrels per day. Time will tell who will be left standing.”

In response to a CNBC article asking, “Could oil collapse cause next credit crisis?,” USA Gold’s Mike Kosares looks at the potential impact on gold and silver prices if that happens:

“If the latest oil shock – this time in a southerly direction – creates knock on effects, we will hear a great deal about systemic risks in the days and weeks ahead, Recall that gold at first went south in the crisis of 2007-2008 and then headed sharply higher as investors moved to shore up their portfolio’s against the possibility of a showdown on Wall Street and within the banking system.

We are in a much different situation today than we were back then and the system as a whole still suffers from the damage done by the last crisis. If a crisis were to hit today, it would start with a much weaker line-up on the playing field than the last time around. Keep in mind too that all of this has occurred because quantitative easing on a global basis simply has not worked.

We suspect that gold and silver demand will grow stronger even if the price weakens, or perhaps because the price weakens. Those who understand the virtues of gold ownership are not going to suddenly go to their national currencies, or the banking system, or the New York Stock Exchange as a defense. They will go to gold and silver.”

‘Extreme’ Bearishness Seen Boding Well for Metals

Posted by on November 27th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GOODnewsBEARS

“Sentiment toward gold is at such a bearish extreme,” begins a MarketWatch analysis, that “it seems as if every market seer is saying it’s time to buy because nearly everyone else has been selling.” It cites the proprietor of a sentiment tracking service, who calls an early November sentiment showing that just 3% of traders were bullish, one of “the most extreme we have seen.” He compares it to a 98% bullish reading in August 2011, “just as gold was about to embark on a journey from more than $1,900 an ounce down into the $1,100s.” Among the strongest of the bearish-is-bullish adherents are the Elliott Wave practitioners, two of whom expressed their optimistic forecasts for gold and silver last week.

See also:

Coin News: Gold and silver dip slightly in quieter pre-holiday trading

John Hathaway/The Gold Report: Monetary tectonics; Harry Dent’s simple strategy for surviving withdrawals from ‘markets on crack’

Zero Hedge: Bubbleology – The science of bubble money; Central bank credibility, the equity markets, and gold

GATA/Gold-Eagle: Curbing central banks is the point of the Swiss gold initiative; Grandmaster Putin’s golden trap

SRSrocco Report: Exchange warehouse silver stocks – large declines across the globe

Arabian Money/SafeHaven: What’s delaying the U.S. stock market crash?; What are the rich doing with their money?

Swiss Gold Vote Coverage Ramps Up

Posted by on November 26th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Media, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

ClockIsTicking

As the non-financial mainstream media begin focusing on Sunday’s Swiss gold referendum, USA Today reports a Bank of America prediction that “the price of gold could jump to more than $1,350 an ounce — an increase of 18%,” if the “yes” vote prevails. And a Guardian article, headlined “Fears that ‘dangerous’ Switzerland referendum could spark gold rush,” refers to a quote by the chairman of the Swiss National Bank, who said during a ‘sermon’ he delivered at a Swiss church, “The initiative is dangerous because it would weaken the SNB.”

But the lion’s share of the Guardian‘s quotes come from precious metals analyst and blogger Koos Jansen, who calls the Swiss initiative “merely part of a increasing global scramble towards gold and away from the endless printing of money,” adding that “While those behind the Swiss initiative have often been portrayed as crazy, they’re merely acting out of fear that their central bank is losing control of its monetary policy, and of the Swiss franc being sucked into this currency war and losing its value.”

SwissGoldCoverageRampsUp

Coin News/SilverSeek:  Precious metals rise as dollar dips, U.S. coin sales gain; Silver – what COT analysis tells us

Gold Silver Worlds:  Algos gone wild?  Gold price went ballistic to $1,450 in less than 20 minutes

Bloomberg/Mineweb:  China’s gold imports rise for a third month on jewelry sales; China 2014 gold demand heading for 2,100 tonnes

SafeHaven/Financial Post  Can gold extend its rally?; 6 reasons to be bullish on gold

Bloomberg:  Platinum & Pallidum – HSBC, Goldman rigged metals’ prices for years, suit says

GATA/WSOP: U.S. Senate report shows how easily banks can rig gold, copper, and other markets; Scale of Wall Street’s commodity holdings are “unprecedented in U.S. history

Metals Gain as China, Netherlands Surprise

Posted by on November 22nd 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, ECB, Euro, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, Interest Rates, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

ChinaRateCutSuprise

Spot silver gained 1.5% on Friday and gold added 0.9% “after a surprise rate cut by China fueled expectations demand could rise in the world’s biggest consumer” of gold, reports Reuters. “Any measures that accelerate the spending power of the Chinese public are bound to be positive for gold,” said a Mitsubishi analyst, suggesting that it could lead Chinese consumers to “buy more jewelry and investment products.”

DutchGoldSurpriseAlso, or perhaps primarily, boosting gold on Friday was news that the Dutch central bank has repatriated 122 tonnes of gold from the New York Fed’s vaults, with a spokesman for the bank saying that “It is no longer wise to keep half of our gold in one part of the world. Maybe it was desirable during the Cold War, but not now.”

“What’s particularly interesting about this surprise,” according to USA Gold, “is that little-ol’ Holland somehow managed to jump in front of Germany in extracting their gold from the Fed. You may recall that Germany requested back in 2013 that 300 tonnes of gold be repatriated. After nearly two-years, a disturbingly small percentage has actually been returned.”

See also:

Bloomberg/WSJ: Gold, silver rise to three-week highs on China interest-rate cut; Bring on the currency wars

Dan Norcini/Telegraph: China news, ECB roil commodity markets; Mario Draghi – ECB must now raise inflation ‘as fast as possible’

GoldMoney/CNBC: Market report – Better tone for volatile gold; Central banks – The new gold bugs?

Bullion Star:  Switzerland net exports 100 tonnes of gold in October

Zero Hedge/GoldCore: Everything you need to know about the Swiss gold referendum; Swiss gold vote likely tighter than polls suggest

Bloomberg/Jesse’s Café Américain: Fed may limit Wall Street role in commodities; Sen. Carl Levin – Fed enabled banks to elbow way into commodities, manipulate prices

Metals Seen Riding ‘Wave’ Higher

Posted by on November 21st 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

AnalystsSeeMetalsRidingWaveHigher

In a Mineweb article published earlier this week, by Lawrence Williams and headlined “Elliott Wave analyst sees big gold and silver price surge ahead,” Williams reference’s Wikipedia’s definition of Elliott Wave as “a form of technical analysis that some traders use to analyze financial market cycles and forecast market trends by identifying extremes in investor psychology, highs and lows in prices, and other collective factors.”

In addition to the analyst cited by Mineweb, Peter Goodburn, another prominent Elliott Wave adherent is Avi Gilburt, whose articles are regularly published on Seeking Alpha.

Gilburt, who is more an analyst of, than advocate for precious metals, takes up their cause in his latest missive. “I do not often write about the metals on MarketWatch,” he begins, “but have seen too many bearish articles calling for the death to the metals, so I felt compelled to speak up. While many are now saying it is time to sell metals, I will have to disagree. The time to sell your metals was several years ago. Now is the time to start looking to buy them back.”

See also:

Reuters/Coin News: Spot gold rises as price drop tempts physical buyers; Gold futures dip for second day, U.S. Mint sales rise

Bloomberg: Gold heading for longest stretch of weekly increases since July

Sharelynx/Contra Corner: : Chart – Russia adds another 600,000 ozs of gold to its reserves in October; As “sanctions war” heats up, will Putin play his ‘gold card’?

Reuters: Unusual gold moves in Asian hours puzzle jittery traders

Barron’s/MarketWatch: Jeremy Grantham – S&P 500 could gain another 10% before “crashing as it always does“; Man who called last stock crash — Peter Schiff — is already blaming the Fed for the next

The Real News/Time: The power to create money in the hands of the banks; Study suggests banking industry breeds dishonesty

Russia/Ukraine Gold — All In vs. All Gone

Posted by on November 19th 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, Ukraine, USD, Wall Street, Warren Buffett | Be the first to comment!

Russia:UkraineGold

While Reuters pegs Tuesday’s gains in gold and silver to a falling dollar, a Bloomberg article headlines Russia adding to its gold reserves as a major factor in gold topping $1,200 an ounce on its way to a two-week high. “The fact that Russia is buying more gold instead of diversifying into another currency or buying more dollars is a big positive,” said one trader, in response to a report that Russia has purchased about 150 tonnes of gold so far this year, almost twice its 2013 buy, including 35 tonnes since the end of September.

But in Ukraine, according to a Zero Hedge post, the head of the country’s central bank said during a TV interview that “in the vaults of the central bank there is almost no gold left,” adding that there’s “a small amount of gold bullion left, but it’s just 1% of reserves.” Earlier this year the IMF put Ukraine’s gold holdings at 42.3 tonnes, or 8% of total reserves. Zero Hedge concludes: “now that the disappearance of Ukraine’s gold has been confirmed, perhaps it is time to refresh the “unconfirmed” story that a little after the current Ukraine regime took power the bulk of Ukraine’s gold was taken to the United States.”

See also:

Mineweb/SilverSeek: Gold bounces back above $1,200 – will it jump higher?; Gold and silver supply is very tight

Dan Norcini/Sprout Money: Gold taking cues from forex market movements; When will gold’s fundamentals rise to the surface?

Bloomberg: Gold lending rate most negative since 2001 on longer refining

Acting Man/TradePlacer: Wrinkles of the Swiss gold referendum; Impressions of the latest TV debate

Mauldin Economics/Peak Prosperity/Wolf Street: Correction? What correction?; John Hussman – The stock market is overvalued by 100%; Warren Buffet is dumping stocks out the backdoor

Confounded Interest: Fed’s FOMC speeches become more complex over time as Middle Class feels more abandoned

Rutherford Institute/LA Times: Are ‘We the People’ useful idiots in the digital age?; NSA surveillance bill defeated in Senate

Down, Up, Up: Metals Spike; Myriad Reasons Cited

Posted by on November 15th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | 1 comment

MetalsSpike11:14:14

After falling Friday morning on an upbeat U.S. retail sales report for October, spot gold and silver roared back to gain 2.5% and 4.4% respectively,” reports Reuters, quoting one metals’ trader as observing that “The early morning pressure was met with significant bargain-hunting, and when the market was unable to continue its move lower, short-covering ensued.”

Reuters also attributes gold’s gains to a “sudden weakening of the dollar,” which is emphasized by Zero Hedge, along with a report that the “yes” vote is leading in polling on the Swiss gold referendum.  Add to that, a money manager tells MarketWatch that “Gold reversed after oil got bid on speculation that OPEC will cut oil output,” while a trader quoted by Bloomberg concurs: “The spike in oil prices acted as a catalyst. There was a lot of fund buying.”

See also:

GoldMoney/Arabian Money:  Alasdair Macleod – Market Report – Is gold turning the corner?; Swiss gold referendum and Russian buying gives gold and silver a rally

GoldCore:  Swiss gold shenanigans intensify prior to November 30 vote

Hard Assets Investor/BullionVault:  Commodity ETF flows: Traders bet on oil & silver, dump GLD; Gold/silver ratio 2015: Can silver rise when gold falls?

USA Gold/Wealth Daily:  Gold capitulation? Not likely; Central banks buying record amounts of gold

Short Side of Long/SilverSeek:  Portfolio update: Bought silver & China; Primary silver miners losing nearly $3.00 for every ounce of production

Marketplace/The Guardian: It won’t be easy for ISIS to create its own currency

Marc Faber: Physical Gold Trumps Mining Shares

Posted by on November 14th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, USD, Wall Street | 1 comment

BuyGoldYouCanHold

In a subscriber-only ETF.com interview, excerpted by Hard Assets Investor, Marc Faber weighs in on where gold’s headed and why he prefers the end product over the companies that mine it:

Q:  Gold plunged immediately after the [Oct. 31] BoJ announcement [that it would expand its asset purchases], which came only days after the Federal Reserve announced the end of QE. Where do you see gold headed in 2015?

Faber: I think it will go up. But can it go down first? Yes. In general, I would say the game that central bankers are playing is very clear: They start out with QE1 in the U.S., and then that forced essentially other central banks to do the same, to also go QE. They’re kind of passing each other the ball. One stops, the other one starts. It’s basically a game designed to kill the purchasing power of paper money. I’m not sure they’re aware of it, but in my view, this is the beginning of the end of paper money in this century.

And asked about physical gold vs. mining shares, Faber says: In general, my advice to investors is to own physical gold and not gold mining shares. Because in a disaster scenario, you don’t know what financial assets will be worth, whereas physical gold is in your possession.”…Read more>>>

See also:

Bloomberg/24/7 Wall St.:  Gold inches up, silver flat, as jobless claims rise more than forecast

Dan Norcini/WGC:  World Gold Council issues its latest report

Acting Man:  Gold market sentiment – A contrarian’s dream?

Forbes/TradePlacer:  Are small investors right about silver?; Ted Butler to silver miners – COMEX is responsible for low silver prices

Telegraph/RBTH:  Putin stockpiles gold as Russia prepares for economic war

Gold Market Macro: Eastern physical demand versus Western financial supply – who will win out?

Physical Buyers Seize Paper-Selling Opportunity

Posted by on November 11th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Media, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

PaperSelling=Opportunity

Silver and gold ended off 1.1% and 2.2% respectively on Monday, giving back a portion of Friday’s gains as the U.S. dollar rebounded. “From a technical perspective,” according to USA Gold’s daily market report, “Friday’s key-reversal on the daily chart and the hook-reversal on the weekly chart favor further short-term positive price action” in gold.  “However, persistent firmness in the dollar and buoyant stocks continue to prompt outflows from ETPs indexed to gold. Another eight tonnes came out of the paper market last week.”  But, citing numerous examples that demand for physical gold and silver “remains robust,” it notes that “We’ve seen this time and time again: Lower prices spurred by selling in the paper market are viewed as a buying opportunity by those who prefer to hold real physical metal.”

See also:

Coin News/Mineweb::  U.S. Mint gold coins gain; Silver Eagle sales remain suspended; Gold demand still running high, so where’s the turning point?

Bullion Star/USA Today:  Chinese gold demand strong, mainstream media twisting; China hoarding gold to challenge U.S. dollar?

GoldMoney/Reuters:  Deflation comes knocking at the door; Fed’s Rosengren says fight for higher inflation should be vigorous

MarketWatch/Mineweb:  Silver and gold say global growth (still) stinks; Permanent gold backwardation = global meltdown ahead

Zero Hedge:  The Council on Foreign Relations apologizes for the “Greenspan glitch

Metals Rebound as Jobs Report Underwhelms

Posted by on November 8th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsGainOnJobs

Spot gold and silver gained 2.8% and 1.9% on Friday, following a weaker-than expected October jobs report that led to the dollar suffering its biggest drop in three weeks. But dismissing the prospect of a sustained gold rally, one trader told Reuters that following such a big selloff, “some speculators are covering their shorts after the worse-than-expected non-farm number. I think that’s all it is at this point.” This as Hong Kong fund manager William Kaye describes how a short squeeze in gold, could unfold.

Trading in gold futures on Friday was more than double the 100-day average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, which also points out that “Gold’s 14-day relative-strength index in the previous five sessions was below 30, a level that suggests to some traders who study technical charts that prices may be poised to rebound. The gauge climbed to 36 today.”

And Coin News reports that weekly sales of gold coins “were the highest since mid-January when new 2014-dated American Gold Eagle and American Gold Buffalo coins ignited buying. Silver coin sales were on a tear until mid-week when the U.S. Mint announced that its Silver Eagles sold out.”

See also:

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Gold and silver charts – Short squeeze

GoldMoney/Reuters:  Weekly market report – Precious metals hit by strong dollar; COT Report – Speculators push long U.S. dollar position to largest since 2008

Bullion Star/SilverSeek:  Lower silver prices spark unprecedented demand; Silver and powerful forces

Bloomberg:  China gold buying means price floor to Standard Chartered

Koos Jansen/Ron Paul:  Beijing financial forum – New global financial order is essential; Ron Paul – Watch out when people start to distrust our money

The Diplomat/Zero Hedge:  Time to take the Russia-China axis seriously; Russia nears completion of second “holy grail” gas deal with China

Toronto Star/AP:  Ukraine says hundreds of rebels killed as truce crumbles; Accuses Russia of sending dozens of tanks

Greenspan: On Gold, Uncut

Posted by on November 8th 2014 in Federal Reserve, Gold, Monetary Policy, USD | Be the first to comment!

 GreenspanUncut

Gillian Tett: Do you think that gold is currently a good investment?

Alan Greenspan: Yes… Remember what we’re looking at. Gold is a currency. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency. No fiat currency, including the dollar, can match it.

Metals Take Break From Fall; G/S Ratio Near 5-Year High

Posted by on November 7th 2014 in CFTC, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

G:sRatio11:14

Spot silver and gold recovered slightly on Thursday, adding a few-tenths of a percent, after Wednesday’s rout “tempted some buyers back to the market and as the dollar dipped on profit-taking,” reports Reuters.  It quotes one gold trader as observing:  “We’re holding steady today but nobody wants to make a big move ahead of the employment numbers tomorrow morning. If there’s a positive number, they (the bears) may take a run at it.” This as Bloomberg reports that the gold/silver ratio hit a five-year high earlier this week, topping 76 before ending at 74.1 on Thursday (see above chart). And in a separate article, on American Silver Eagles selling out, Bloomberg notes that assets in ETFs and other exchange-traded products “backed by silver rose to a record last month, defying a slump in gold ETP holdings to the smallest since 2009.”

See also:

GoldPrice.org/Mineweb:  Silver and gold are severely oversold; Will they get worse before they get better?

Zero Hedge:  Physical gold shortage worst in over a decade – Gold forward rate most negative since 2001

Barron’s/GoldSeek:  Will the Swiss referendum turn around gold?

Pragmatic Capitalism/Sprott Money:  What if the Fed isn’t the wizard behind the economic curtain?; Federal Reserve counterfeiting approaches 100%

NY Post/Of Two Minds:  GOP should start fixing the Fed; If you think it matters which party controls the Senate, answer these questions

NY Times/Rolling Stone: Matt Taibbi spotlights a JPMorgan whistleblower; The $9 billion witness – Meet JPMorgan Chase’s worst nightmare