Archive for the ‘Federal Reserve’ Category

Thanksgiving: Metals Over October After Down Day, Week

Posted by on November 1st 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, GATA, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

ScaryBears

Gold futures were off 2.3% on Friday and silver doubled that decline, with both hitting four-year lows on the day and having their worst week since April 2013.  “Japan basically pushed gold over the edge as it triggered a major risk-on move,” according to a Saxo Bank commodity strategist, citing Japanese stimulus, the Fed ending QE and dollar strength as being “more than the market could cope with this week.”

“The main reason for gold’s fall is the strength in the dollar after the BOJ’s desperate efforts to weaken the yen,” said the head of one asset management firm, and while predicting that “Gold could fall further in the short term as the dollar could rise,” he also thinks “gold should eventually benefit as a hedge against the uncertainties and economic turmoil brought by central-bank actions.”

While in the realm of the coins, Silver Eagles had their best month of the year in October, and with sales of some 38 million this year, they’re only about one million behind the pace of 2013′s record-setting year.

See also:

Jesse’s Café AméricainGood morning, Fiat Nam!

Dan Norcini:  Hedge funds feasting on small specs in silver; Gold bears nail hedge fund sell stops

Seeking Alpha:  Putting the gold selloff into perspective

Mineweb/Bullion Star:  Gold and silver dive yet Chinese demand keeps rising; The great Chinese silver market debate

The Gold Report321 Gold‘s Bob Moriarity – Flock of black swans points to imminent stock market crash

KWN/Sprott Global:  Eric Sprott says the stock market will crash, not gold; What Greenspan’s latest talk means for gold

GATA:  Here’s what the World Gold Council is doing today amid the war against gold

Silver Slump Gives Ratio Bump

Posted by on October 31st 2014 in CFTC, China, Euro, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverSlumpsRatioBumpsFollowing better-than-expected U.S. GDP growth of 3.5% for the third quarter, spot gold and silver fell 1% and 3.4% respectively on Thursday, and futures were hit even harder, tumbling 2.1% and 4.9%, on what was “a rough day for the precious metals, with the financial powers-that-be trying to prove that the end of QE III need have no negative effects on their financial engineering of The Recovery™.”

With silver hitting a 56-month low, the gold/silver ratio is now pushing 73, a 66-month high, but if an in-depth chart analysis published by SilverSeek — “Time Running Out on Silver Bear” — proves correct, that could change in weeks, not months.  It predicts that November is “the time for the present silver bear market to end, and for silver to begin its next leg higher within its primary bull market.”

See also:

Zero Hedge/Businessweek:  Broken stocks, battered bullion, and bruised crude; Did the U.S. just ‘steal’ GDP growth from the fourth quarter?

James Grant/Eric Parnell:  Complexity – The hidden cost of central bank actions; A once-in-a-generation change for stocks

Bullion Star/Mineweb:  China stocks up on oil & gold while prices are low; China’s ‘new normal’ still global metals demand driver

Bloomberg/Mining.com: Russia buys most gold for reserves since 1998 financial crisis; Pushes forward plans to mine the moon

CNBC/Grant Williams:  Currency traders eye Swiss vote on gold holdings

GoldCore:  U.S. Mint gold coin sales near 60,000 ounces in October – Swiss gold initiative leading to increase in demand?

QE Ends; Greenspan Goes All Gold Bug

Posted by on October 30th 2014 in Federal Reserve, Gold, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GoldBugGreenspan

Spot gold and silver fell some 1.4% and 0.8% on Wednesday, with most of the drop following the FOMC announcement that it was ending it’s QE program, but that it would also keep interest rates low for a “considerable time.” The U.S. dollar rose on the announcement, which was said to have also “put downside price pressure on gold.”

But according to former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, during an appearance Wednesday, QE “didn’t do much for the real economy.” And as Zero Hedge points out, Greenspan “has suddenly had an epiphany and now has a very different message from the one he preached during his decades as the head of the Fed:  ‘Mr. Greenspan said gold is a good place to put money these days given its value as a currency outside of the policies conducted by governments.’”  And USA Gold’s buying it:  “With the price of gold down in reaction to today’s policy statement, now might be the perfect time to heed the former chairman’s investment advice.”

Silver’s $ Volume said to Top Gold’s

Posted by on October 29th 2014 in Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Silver$VolumeTopsGold

October sales of the U.S. Mint’s 2014 Gold and Silver American Eagles surpassed September’s sales this week, reports Coin News. Gold Eagles saw their best month since January, and the 4.36 million Silver Eagles sold in October was more than in any month since March. And given the outsized gold/silver ratio, which stood at 71.46 on Tuesday, Patrick Heller writes that “it should surprise no one that demand for physical silver by American investors is so strong in the U.S. that the dollar volume of retail sales by coin dealers of silver exceeds that for gold. Over the past month, demand has been especially skewed in favor of silver.”

See also:

MarketWatch/InvestorPlace:  Gold and silver futures creep higher ahead of Fed decision

Confounded InterestThe Night of the Living Fed!

Hard Assets Investor:  Fed’s halting of QE may mark gold’s bottom; Don’t get bullish on gold until it breaks $1,350

SilverSeek:  Why silver and gold are the good news metals

Gold Report/Mineweb:  Analyst says peak gold is here to stay; Hong Kong gold exports to China pick up strongly but…

Deviant Investor:  Gold vs. paper – A Tale of Two Cities

Metals Quiet Ahead of Fed

Posted by on October 28th 2014 in Bart Chilton, CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, India, Interest Rates, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsQuietAheadOfFed

Silver and gold futures inched up and down respectively on Monday, with the market said to be in “a wait-and-watch mode” ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. One reason that gold “came under pressure” on Monday, reports Reuters, was “a sharp pullback in crude oil after Goldman Sachs slashed its price forecasts, citing lackluster global demand.” But it was also “underpinned” by China’s net gold imports from Hong Kong hitting a five-month high in September. This as the Times of India reports that annual Swiss gold exports to India have hit a record high level in advance of Switzerland’s gold referendum on November 30.

See also:

Mining.com/Mining Feeds:  Will the Fed turn off the QE tap?; What will the end of QE mean for the precious metals?”

Motley Fool CA/Market Sanity:  3 reasons why I remain bullish on silver; Rick Rule – Why to love the silver bear market

SafeHaven:  Gold and silver – Respect the trend but prepare for a reversal

Telegraph/BullionVault: BIS warns on ‘violent’ reversal of global markets; Gold as investment insurance

SRSrocco Report:  China- 10,000 tons of gold reserve? Could have been done with ease

Zero Hedge:  How China & gold will shape the future; Caption contest – Bart Chilton salutes you

A ‘Lifeboat’ Against Central Bankers, Politicians

Posted by on October 25th 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsLifeboat

While spot gold and silver ended nearly unchanged Friday, futures inched up slightly as the dollar dropped for the first time in four days. “Today’s upward move is all about the dollar reacting to Ebola fears in New York,” according to a market strategist quoted by Bloomberg, who added that the metals’ “long-term price direction will be all about what the Fed does next,” with the next FOMC meeting set for October 28-29.

Despite being “stopped in their tracks” on Friday, “as the price dominant Comex continues to exert its inordinate influence over the real world economies,” Jesse’s Café Américain counsels that “the most fruitful perspective for the precious metals is that of a long-term investor.  Short term traders may find little to interest them here.  And when they do, it may be too late to climb on board. So we must take the markets as they are. There is no sense to criticize a lifeboat for not being a motorcycle. Do we need lifeboats? Do you trust the central banks and the politicians to safeguard your wealth and the integrity of the money and the financial system?”

See also:

Alasdair Macleod:  Weekly market report – Precious metals subdued as panic over; Financial markets and reality disconnected

Numismaster/SafeHaven:  Patrick Heller – Silver demand tops gold; Bullish silver stealth buying

SilverSeek:  Bank for International Settlements paves the way for silver & gold

Mineweb/Fast MarketsSwiss gold referendum – Early opinion poll strikes fear; Swiss National Bank could be forced to buy $60 billion of gold

SF Chronicle/Channel NewsAsia:  Huge, honkin’ gold nugget hits the market; Singapore-based Bullion Star gives employees the option of being paid in gold

Burning Platform:  What could you buy with $100 worth of silver or gold if you invested 40 years ago?

Metals End Mixed; Stock Bear Rips Economy, ‘Moron’ Central Bankers

Posted by on October 24th 2014 in China, Euro, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Media, Monetary Policy, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

2015GDPgrowth

Spot silver added 0.6% and gold fell 0.9% on Thursday, as new U.S. unemployment claims held below 300,000 for the sixth straight week, the dollar rallied and the Dow surged on what were seen as strong earnings results.  But according to noted stock “über bear,” Albert Edwards, “The bottom line is that there is far too much over-confidence in the U.S. recovery. Fragile and vulnerable in itself, the U.S. recovery now battles against the rest of the world, which like a horror movie is dragging it down into a hellish Ice Age underworld.”

Armed with the above chart on 2015 GDP growth, Zero Hedge has more on Edwards’ latest warning:  “Simply put, the central banks for all their huffing and puffing cannot eliminate the business cycle. And they should have realized after the 2008 Great Recession that the longer they suppress volatility, both economic and market, the greater the subsequent crash. Will these morons ever learn?

See also:

Peak Prosperity/SafeHaven:  Why gold is undervalued, and poised to re-price upwards; Gold or crushing paper debt

P. Radomski:  Gold & silver trading alert: How will we know that the bottom is in?

SilverSeek/Silver Institute:  October Silver Eagle sales best ever, and with 10 days remaining; Silver investment may increase by one billion ounces over the next decade

Dan Norcini/Bill Bonner:  Gold mining stocks continue to sink; Huge upside in gold miners from here?

GoldSeek:  Chris Powell – The crucial questions financial journalism won’t ask & central banks won’t answer

USA Today/Naked Capitalism:  America’s perpetual state of emergency; The financialization of life

‘Plunge Protection Team’: Everywhere or Nowhere?

Posted by on October 23rd 2014 in Bailout, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

PlungeProtectionTeam

Gold and silver futures ended off 0.5% and 1.8% on Wednesday, with the drop attributed in some quarters to a “firming dollar and subdued inflation,” which an analyst cited by MarketWatch sees as “a normal trading correction.”  And while a post at Jesse’s Café Américain agrees, suggesting that the metals “may have taken a pause at support,” he also finds it “interesting to see them run with stocks today, in the face of some exogenous risk events. They are certainly acting oddly. One has to wonder if this is a related action by the “Plunge Protection Team” which feels free to purchase stocks at key points apparently to help restore confidence.”

David Stockman’s Contra Corner advances the argument that there is a “Plunge Protection Team,” and “It’s called the FOMC.” This as Bloomberg reports that Citigroup analysts “have put a price on how much liquidity central banks need to provide each quarter to stop markets from sliding. By estimating that zero stimulus would be consistent with a 10 percent quarterly drop in equities, they calculate it takes around $200 billion from central banks each quarter to keep markets from selling off.”

Ted Butler has also raised the issue of the “Plunge Protection Team” meddling in the metals, alleging that it gave JPMorgan the greenlight to manipulate the silver market.

Gold Underpinned by ‘Über-Accommodative’ Monetary Policies

Posted by on October 22nd 2014 in China, ECB, Euro, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Interest Rates, Russia, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

UberGoldSpot gold and silver gained 0.3% and 0.6% respectively on Tuesday, while futures prices doubled up that percentage, on what a Bloomberg article sees as the perception that the Fed will continue its low interest rate policy.  It notes that interest rate futures “indicated the odds of a U.S. increase at about 46.2 percent by October 2015, down from 55 percent a week earlier.” That notion is seconded by a USA Gold market report that gold “remains underpinned by global growth risks and the expectations that the central banks of the world will maintain their über-accommodative policy stances in hopes of mitigating those risks.”  It adds that “The European Central Bank is in the forefront on that meme these days.”

See also:

Coin News/Motley Fool CA:  Gold hits 5-week high, Silver Eagle sales top 36 million; Why silver is poised to hit $50

Mineweb:  Lawrence Williams – Chinese and Indian gold buyers are back in the market in a big way

Arabian Money/DNA India:  Indian religious buying forecast to almost double this season; Mad about yellow – India’s love affair with gold

IB Times/SharelynxRussia’s gold rush: Putin orders gold reserve buying spree to beat Western sanctions

Gold Switzerland/GoldCore:  Will this save the Swiss financial system?; Poll shows pro-gold side in lead at 45%

60 Minutes:  Turning mushroom hunting into gold in the Yukon

Gold Seen as ‘Growth Uncertainty’ Hedge

Posted by on October 21st 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Interest Rates, Janet Yellen, Russia, Short Sellers, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GDPprojections

Spot gold and silver gained about a half a percent Monday on what MarketWatch describes as a combo platter of “global economic uncertainties and overseas demand.”  It cites an analysis by Sharps Pixley, which observes that “While the sentiment towards gold has been soured given little inflationary pressure, the global equity rout and the on-going geopolitical risks have led to a rising demand for gold as an uncertainty and a portfolio hedge.”

“Concern that economic malaise in Europe will spread has helped revive gold demand,” reports Bloomberg, noting that “The 39 percent jump in net-long positions in futures and options last week was the biggest since June, U.S. data show.” And according to a UBS analyst quoted, “This scenario continues to be supportive for gold, as it allows for more room to rebuild positions in the near term should investor doubts on global growth and uncertainties on the timing of Fed rate hikes linger.”

See also:

Bullion Star/Jesse’s Café Américain: The Chinese precious metals market is on fire; Lower gold prices prompt large BRIC purchases

Bullion Street/Sprout Money:   India’s Diwali festivities could push gold higher; Why the Argentinean situation should make you buy gold

Hard Assets Investor/SilverSeek:  David Morgan on why $17 silver is unsustainable; Why worry about bullion silver?

Fox Business/Zero Hedge:  Jim Rickards:  Inflation-deflation tug-of-war means more QE; Santelli & Schiff: “A messy exit is a given… Ending QE will plunge U.S. into severe recession”

Peak Prosperity/Wolf Street:  How the Fed is purposely attacking savers – But bungling badly as it does; Designated losers of monetary policy

Wall Street on Parade/Confounded Interest:  Yellen -  Average net worth of 62 million U.S. households is $11,000; Worries that bottom 90% of Americans don’t own enough assets

China Gold: Production to Slow, Imports to Grow

Posted by on October 18th 2014 in Bart Chilton, CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

ChinaGoldProduction

The growth in Chinese gold mine output is expected to drop from 6% this year to about 1% in 2018, says the analytics firm Business Monitor International.  It attributes the decrease to declining ore grades and waning profitability, which, reports Reuters, “will pave the way for rising imports to meet persistent strength in demand from Chinese consumers,” according to an analyst for the company.

And on Thursday, MarketWatch cited a note suggesting that “support for gold may come from seasonal demand out of India ahead of this month’s religious festivals, wrote strategists at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. September Indian trade data showed gold imports soared by 450% year-over-year to $3.75 billion, they said, which indicates Indian consumers haven’t been deterred from buying large quantities of gold by import restrictions. ‘If this should turn into a trend, it would doubtless lend support to the gold price,’ they said.”

See also:

SilverSeek/Reuters: Gold and silver end mixed on the week; Gold posts weekly gain on economic fears, U.S. Fed view

Mineweb:  Lawrence Williams:  The sky is falling! Should you buy gold and silver?

Zero Hedge:  Yellen translated – “Let them eat cake“; Calling the Fed’s bluff

Alasdair Macleod/GoldPrice.org:  Market Report: Gold benefits from market uncertainty; Price climbed over two crucial resistance levels this week

Mining.com/King One Eye:  Extreme precious metal shorting peaks; Why gold will keep shining

PTTM/MarketWatch/Bloomberg:  Former CFTC crusader Bart Chilton says he doesn’t feel bad in heart in shift to HFT advocate

Wall Street on Parade:  New book – Sen. Charles Schumer was regular visitor to Madoff offices

Silver Seen Gaining on Gold

Posted by on October 17th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

G:Sratiodrop

With the gold/silver ratio at 71.4 on Thursday, Bloomberg‘s “Chart of the Day,” from 2012 on in the above, cites a forecast by UBS that has the ratio falling to 65.6 in 12 months. That calculation is based on UBS’s bearish forecast of $16 for silver and $1,050 for gold. According to one of the bank’s Singapore-based analysts, the gold/silver ratio currently “stands near crisis levels, which ignores the fact that economic activity next year should accelerate, with developed markets advancing and emerging ones moderating somewhat. Increases in silver ETFs suggest that the holding power of silver investors is immense and the metal still attracts physical investors.”  More from Mineweb‘s Lawrence Williams:  “Expect big silver price surge if gold stays positive.”

See also:

SilverSeek/Coin News:  Gold and silver end mixed as stocks stabilize; U.S. Mint sales – Core sets and Silver Eagles lead

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Cap, cap, cap – The fingerprints of officialdom were all over the markets today; Fed’s Bullard and the Plunge Protection Team to the rescue

WSJ/David Stockman:  Bullard says he would consider continuing QE after October; Now comes the “specter of deflation” – The money printers’ latest scam

Pragmatic CapitalismSo much for rate increases…

TF Metals Report/Alhambra Partners:  The current cap in gold; Another reminder gold is not often as it seems

Reuters/Businessweek:  45% of Americans say avoiding international air travel; America’s Ebola preppers go shopping for Clorox

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