Posted by Investment Rarities on December 7th 2013 in CFTC, General Economy, India, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
“If you want to know why silver prices have gone nowhere lately, take one look at the chart and more specifically, the outlined (in yellow) ellipse on the chart,” writes Dan Norcini, about the latest COT report for silver. “That is the hedge funds’ net position. They now have the largest net short position in the history of this particular disaggregated report. These big and powerful speculators are what drive our markets and they continue to sell rallies in silver… My thinking is that it will take a definite shift in sentiment away from the current ‘economic growth is steady but slow’ sentiment towards one of ‘economic growth is picking up speed and is increasing’ in order to run these hedge funds out of their profitable short positions.”
And Sprott’s David Franklin asks: “As we break down the fundamentals for silver, market developments this year give rise to a curious conundrum – how can the case for silver be stronger while the price continues to languish?” He goes on to describe a handful of “fundamental changes” that have taken place in the silver market, all of which point to higher prices in the future.
Posted by Investment Rarities on December 6th 2013 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
After initially selling off on larger-than expected November job gains of 203,000, gold and silver rebounded to end down just 0.2% on Friday, reports MarketWatch. It cites one analyst who writes that the rebound “suggests the bears may be getting exhausted after their recent success in pushing prices lower,” and “also suggests the tapering of U.S. monetary policy sooner rather than later is already factored into the market place.”
And expressing skepticism about a Wall Street Journal report suggesting that tapering will begin “either in December or January,” a USA Gold commentator writes: “The way the market has been trading lately, one would think that the heightened taper expectations would be weighing on gold, shares and bonds today. However, that has not been the case….Perhaps the market is skeptical of the taper as well. Or just maybe it’s starting to sink in that a taper of $10-15 billion is simply meaningless in the grand scheme of things.”
CNBC: Jobs growth solid enough for Fed to taper, but not now
Business Insider: Goldman – The Fed is still going to wait until March to taper
GoldSeek: Fed QE volume to triple, not taper
Zero Hedge: Gold gets jobs leak early again?
Got Gold Report: Market strategist: Physical supply of gold has never been tighter
Peak Prosperity: Gold is disappearing from the West
Arabian Money: Is China colluding with top bullion traders to suppress the gold price while buying up global gold reserves?
Silver Investing News: Is Germany jumping on the silver manipulation train?
Posted by Investment Rarities on December 5th 2013 in China, Federal Reserve, GATA, General Economy, Gold, India, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
In reporting on a keynote speech at London’s Mines & Money conference by John Hathaway, asset manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund, Mineweb‘s Lawrence Williams writes that “Hathaway’s interpretation of gold’s decline, paints an exceptionally bullish long term picture….The same physical demand that has caused an apparent unwinding of trades in the paper market will therefore drive a ‘new leg in a secular bull market for gold’, with an eventual ‘implosion of credit structures’ in the gold futures markets of London and New York.” Williams has more coverage of the conference, in a separate article headlined, “Bull market or bear market – where does gold stand now?“
Jesse’s Café Américain: Comex deliverable gold still out on the tails of leverage at 57 to 1
Reuters: Gold drops 1.1% on uncertainty over Fed tapering; Silver also off 1.1%
Coin News: Gold gives back some gains; U.S. Mint gold bullion coins soar
Business Insider: People are buying a lot of silver & gold with their Bitcoins
Liberty Blitzkrieg: Gold smuggling increases 7x in India and surpasses illegal drug trade
GATA: Grant Williams: Today’s gold suppression will break just as London Gold Pool did; Williams – Twisted (By the Pool)
Zero Hedge: Jim Rogers cautions “Be prepared, be worried, and be careful… This is going to end badly
IB Times UK: Freedom Ship: $10 billion floating city for world’s super rich
Posted by Investment Rarities on December 4th 2013 in CFTC, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
U.S. stocks fell for the fourth straight day on tapering fears after the ADP employment report showed that 215,000 new private sector jobs were created in November, topping expectations. But Comex gold and silver futures gained 2.2% and 4% as the prospect of tapering was overshadowed by a drop in the dollar and short covering. One trader told Bloomberg that “We saw gold take off as the dollar began its slide.” And, quoting a market strategist who said that “It almost seems too easy to get short gold right now,” Dow Jones reported that “on Wednesday, the widespread bets on lower gold prices backfired. An updraft on the back of a lackluster dollar swiftly escalated into a rally, which caused more traders to try to limit losses on bearish wagers.”
Posted by Investment Rarities on December 3rd 2013 in General Economy, Gold, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
With stocks seeing their first three-day losing streak since late September on Tuesday, Dan Norcini observed that “the VIX has scored a five week high today for some reason. I tend to watch this indicator in conjunction with the action in the equities as a way to gauge any potential shift in overall confidence. In my view, the only thing that can bring a firm bid into gold and reverse the current bear market in the metal is a heightening of fear/unrest/unease or better, a growing lack of confidence. Yesterday we had a move higher in the Dollar. Today that has been erased. With the Dollar weakening gold is getting a bit of a bid today. Also aiding the metal is the sharp, and I do mean ‘sharp’ rise in crude oil. It touched $96 ( basis WTI ) in today’s trade and is currently up over $2.00 barrel as I type these comments.”
See also: The next Black Swan – A dollar crisis
Posted by Investment Rarities on December 3rd 2013 in Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
Wondering “Is it time for gold investors to admit defeat?,” Casey Research’s Jeff Clark answers that since “all the reasons gold rose from 2001 to 2011 are still in force, I am convinced gold’s current correction is the setup for a second big surge—and, ultimately, a true gold mania of historic proportions….Just because gold doesn’t seem to be reacting to Fed money-printing at the moment doesn’t mean it won’t. Sooner or later, reality trumps fantasy. Reason says that you can’t quintuple your balance sheet in five years and expect no repercussions. The Fed keeps hinting it will taper its money printing, but it still has not. We’ve had QE1, QE2, Operation Twist, and now QE3… none of them has worked, and the new Fed chair wants to print even more money. It’s pure fantasy to believe there will be no consequences to these actions—and the reality is that whatever else happens, gold will react positively.”
Posted by Investment Rarities on December 2nd 2013 in Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
Comex gold and silver futures ended down 2.3% and 3.7% respectively on Monday as unexpectedly strong ISM manufacturing data was seen increasing the likelihood that the Fed could announce tapering this month. But the CIO at a wealth management company told Reuters that “The ISM news should not trigger a selloff in gold like this. A lot of momentum-driven and institutional investors are piling on gold’s decline by short selling it.”
And pointing out that “The metals were pounded fairly steadily all day, in light trade,” a post at Jesse’s Café Américain also speculates that “we may see the ‘December effect’ in gold and silver, in which the metals are hit in the first part of the month, only to recover into the year end.” This as USA Gold reports “very strong interest from physical buyers on dips. Many of them specifically cite their worries about the stock market as the reason for their desire to add gold to their holdings. It’s never a bad idea to lock in some of your stock market profits and buy a non-correlated asset as a hedge. Gold fits that bill nicely.”
Reuters: Nobel prize economist Robert Shiller warns of U.S. stock market bubble
CNBC: Marc Faber – ‘We are in a massive speculative bubble’
John Hussman: An open letter to the FOMC: Recognizing the valuation bubble in equities
Doug Noland: Pertinent bubble insights from the Roaring Twenties
The Victory Report: Axel Merk – I sleep better with gold holdings than equities
Of Two Minds: Metallic money (gold/silver) vs. credit money: Know the difference
Posted by Investment Rarities on November 26th 2013 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
As gold and silver end slightly lower on Tuesday, Gold Scents asks if gold is in a “Brief pause, or final bottom?” And in an interview with The Gold Report, publisher and radio host Jay Taylor also weighs in: “The chances are better than 50/50 that we’ve seen the bottom and we’re just meandering around and building a base for the next major leg up. It’s not hard for me to imagine gold exploding off the launch pad to hit new highs. The question is: How much higher than $1,900/ounce will it go? I don’t have a strong opinion on that. It depends on how the economy goes and the psychology of the masses.”
Asked if he thinks silver will follow suit or chart its own course, Taylor predicts that “It will follow suit, to a great extent, because it will take on more of a monetary component; currently much of its demand is still from industry. Silver and gold nearly always move in the same direction, but because silver is more undervalued than gold, it could have a much bigger move in percentage terms.”
Zero Hedge-Bloomberg: How gold price is manipulated during the “London Fix”/Original article
Jesse’s Café Américain: Gold bullion ETF and fund drains in 2013 – Comex registered at 69 to 1
Got Gold Report: GoldCore’s Mark O’Byrne – China gold demand causing paradigm shift
Peter Schiff: Ben’s rocket to nowhere
Wall Street On Parade: New York Fed’s strange new role – Big bank equity analyst
Bloomberg: Speed traders meet Nightmare on Elm Street with Nanex
Posted by Investment Rarities on November 26th 2013 in General Economy, Gold, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
Following an overnight hammering that led to gold’s 4th market halt in the past three months, and seen as “probably a pre-emptive effort to shake out a few more weak hands ahead of this afternoon’s option expiration for gold and silver,” they ended Monday up 0.5% and 0.7% respectively.
And while Monday’s initial selling pressure on gold and silver was also attributed to the Iran nuclear deal, which lifts some sanctions on precious metals, Bloomberg reports that according to Standard Bank and Societe General, it will probably have little impact on prices. The article quotes one analyst as saying that “you’re not going to see a significant investment or divestment” because of the lifting of sanctions.
Posted by Investment Rarities on November 24th 2013 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
“It’s not only the Chinese aunties buying gold who are racking up retail sales of precious metals this year. Sales of silver eagle coins by the US Mint this year are already at a record high,” notes Arabian Money, following a week in which silver lost 4%:
“Silver and gold investors are taking out an insurance policy against a known risk that is guaranteed to reoccur at an unspecified future date. That’s why people continue to buy silver eagles when the price of silver is falling. They are buying their insurance policy at a discount with the disaster coming closer. The truth is that the Fed will not be able to stop printing money or by the time it does there will be so much money in the system that any economic recovery will be accompanied by horrendous inflation.”
Posted by Investment Rarities on November 22nd 2013 in CFTC, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
With Comex gold and silver futures down 3.4% and 4.2% respectively for the week, Dan Norcini, lamenting gold’s “meager bounce” on Friday, writes that “The number of bulls continues to fall as more and more investors/traders flee the precious metals sector in favor of high yields in equities. Once again the Dow is over 16,000 and the S&P 500 has now broken firmly above the 1800 level. With those kinds of gains, who needs gold is the new trading adage.
Until something happens which derails equities and sends shock waves of fear throughout the financial system (something which rattles CONFIDENCE) it is difficult for me to envision gold moving higher other than occasional bounces from short covering. Look at the VIX or Volatility Index. It is stuck at multi-year lows. The complacency in the system is nothing short of astonishing. There isn’t a care in the world in the minds of most investors/traders!”
SilverSeek: Why gold and silver are having a tough time
P. Radomski: Precious metals – The long-term perspective
Bloomberg: Gold option wagers on surge to $3000 was most-active Wednesday
Jim Wyckoff: Why tapering may be bullish for metals
SafeHaven: Hard to believe but gold remains in a bull market
USA Gold: Trust your instincts
Posted by Investment Rarities on November 21st 2013 in China, General Economy, Gold, India, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
Spot gold and silver prices rebounded on Thursday, and the gold/silver ratio ended the day at just above 62. Numismaster‘s Patrick Heller argues that it’s headed lower over the next two years, and here’s why:
1. I anticipate substantially higher prices for both metals in the next year or two. With silver being more volatile in price, it should increase by a greater percentage than gold, which would knock down the ratio.
2. The amount of newly mined silver supplies is only about 10 times more than gold. Stated differently, there is not enough silver coming out of the ground to provide 50 or 60 ounces of physical silver for every ounce of gold needed for investor and industrial purposes.
3. The price of silver has acted counterintuitively in 2013. Through several changes in taxes and import restrictions, India’s government has severely restricted the ability of the citizenry to acquire gold. As a consequence, demand for physical silver in India has soared over the past few months.
Heller concludes that “silver will outperform gold over the next couple of years. To be conservative, I still think gold should make up one-third to 40 percent of one’s combined investment in gold and silver, but I am definitely favoring the prospects for silver.”