Archive for the ‘General Economy’ Category

Metals Prepare to Run News ‘Gauntlet’

Posted by on July 30th 2014 in CFTC, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

NewsGauntlet

Gold and silver futures inched down and up repectively on Tuesday in advance of Wednesday’s “gauntlet” of GDP and Fed news. Gold was also said to have been pressured by a rise in U.S. consumer confidence — debt collectors be damned! and a stronger U.S. dollar, which hit a 2014 high against the euro on Tuesday. Wondering “if gold would be able to hold $1280 should the euro fall accelerate,” Dan Norcini opines that “the only thing currently holding gold higher is geopolitical tension. Were it not for those events ( and who knows how all this is going to end) gold would be lower, especially with the dollar strength we are witnessing. Those events should continue to bring some safe haven buying into the yellow metal for the time being which will work to mitigate any sharp drops in price that could occur.”

See also:

BullionVault/Mineweb:  Gold prices move “sideways” ahead of “auto-pilot Fed” and US jobs data; Watch U.S. GDP, jobs reports, not Yellen for gold impact

Telegraph:  Sharp interest rate hikes could trigger global growth shock

David Levenstein/MarketWatch:  While other currencies emerge as an alternative to U.S. dollar, gold will also benefit; Foreigners complain about the dollar but keep buying it

SafeHaven/SilverSeekSilver set to star; Silver prices – megaphone patterns

Zero Hedge:  Jim Grant- Gold is the ultimate inoculation against harebrained central bankers”

CNBC Calls Out Faber, Culls Out His Comeback

Posted by on July 29th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Media, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

FaberPunchLine

As portfolio manager John Hussman warns of “an equity bubble, and a highly advanced one,” another veteran investor and frequent crash-predictor says the current stock market environment is ‘like being in the Twilight Zone,” and argues that “When there is a correction, it will be very severe.” Enter Marc Faber, who, after predicting that a 20 to 30% correction will begin within a few months, CNBCportfoliowas taken to task by a CNBC host for continually predicting corrections that have yet to happen. “I started to work in 1970,” said Faber, “and over that career, somehow, somewhere, I must have made some right calls; otherwise I wouldn’t be in business.” At that point, reports Zero Hedge, “What CNBC then edited out of the transcript was Faber pointing out his 22% annualized return in his publicly-viewable funds since then and asking, “I wonder what the CNBC portfolio would look like since 1999?”

See also:

Bloomberg/NY Times:  Gold futures climb as violence in Ukraine boosts demand

Aden Forecast/Got Gold ReportStill looking good; COMEX swap dealers hedging a massive long play on silver?

Reuters/GoldCore:  Silver bullion banks accused of manipulation in U.S. lawsuit

GATAAnother class-action suit charges gold market manipulation; Possible discrepancy in GLD‘s gold bar accounting

Jesse’s Café Américain/Resource Investor:  What is the effective limitation on the Fed’s ability to ‘print money’?; Why we should fear the REPO

Traders Stock Up on Metals, Not Stocks

Posted by on July 26th 2014 in China, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, Iraq, Middle East, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

StockingUpOnMetals

Although gold and silver ended slightly lower on the week, they were back to being safe havens on Friday, with futures gaining about 1% each on what Bloomberg describes as “escalating havoc in Eastern Europe and the Middle East” that “boosted demand for haven assets.” Or, as a brokerage VP put it, “When you see schools shelled in Gaza and heavy artillery fire from Russia and Ukraine, people are very nervous, and you can’t blame them. As we go into the weekend, with the amount of turmoil that we have, people are going to buy gold.”  An opinion seconded by a strategist who added yet another hot spot to the mix, telling Reuters that “With the news flow coming out Russia and Ukraine and you don’t know what’s going to happen in Iraq, traders are buying gold as they don’t want to get too exposed to geopolitical risks going into the weekend.”

See also:

Zero HedgeStocks slide, gold soars on weak earnings, geopolitical fears; Goldman goes schizo on gold – Boosts price target to $1200 even as it’s “Selling It with conviction”

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Metals bounce, huge week for events & news coming

CNBC/Seeking Alpha:  BlackRock strategist – Stock market could get ‘nasty’; The blow-off top is here

New York Times/Bloomberg:  Op-ed – A Chinese gold standard?; Ecuador weighs escape from dollar ‘straitjacket’

BusinessWeek/Euro Pacific Capital:  Gold diggers revive French exploration as prices drive hunt; The strange case of German gold (scroll down)

Time/Daily Reckoning:  Meet America’s most beloved CEO—Too bad he just got fired; Where you can make $56,000 a year delivering pizzas

Metals Retreat; West Bank Palestinians Advance

Posted by on July 25th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, General Economy, Gold, IMF, Middle East, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsRetreatPalestiniansAdvance

Gold and silver ended down about 1% and 2.5% respectively on Thursday, representing a buying opportunity for one scribe, as global strife took a back seat to what was seen as positive economic news from the eurozone and China, and on U.S. jobless claims hitting an eight-year low.  But citing earlier “negative surprises” from the U.S. and Chinese economies, and ongoing geopolitical risks, the IMF lowered its global growth forecast for 2014.

With gold dropping below $1,300 and stalling at its 200-day moving average, Reuters quotes one observer as saying, “To be fair, I think some people have a right to be disappointed that the stresses around the world haven’t led to a continued rise in the price of gold. We’re probably in oversold territory right now where gold is concerned, but we also seem to be pulling into an area between $1,290 and $1,280 that should offer some support to the market.”

See also:

Dan Norcini/Reuters:  China gold demand slumps 19.4 pct on yr, but output rises

Ted Butler:  Silver tightness

Hard Assets Investor:  Gold’s fair value – bear says $800, bull says $5,000

Investing.com/SafeHavenHappy markets in an unhappy world; Clear and present danger zone

Bloomberg/Business Insider:  Don’t tell anybody about this story on HFT power Jump Trading, one of 10 being eyed by the SEC

Wall Street On Parade:  Lawsuit stunner – Half of futures trades in Chicago are illegal wash trades

Through the Revolving Door to Lobby

Posted by on July 24th 2014 in CFTC, General Economy, Gold, India, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SwapsThis!

An epic farce” is how Zero Hedge characterizes Scott O’Malia’s spin through the revolving door just two days after resigning as an CFTC commissioner, to become the new head of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), “the biggest banking group that has constantly opposed every intervention and attempt to regulate the swaps market by the CFTC since the Lehman crisis.”

It describes ISDA as “a global OTC derivative lobby group, counting the world’s largest investment banks among its members, [that] has RegulateThis!frequently fought regulatory efforts to reform the market after the financial crisis.”  And, goes on to note that “Even an otherwise impartial Reuters appears outraged by this blatant and painfully clear example of government capture of ‘public servants’ by those who have dangled carrots of money in exchange for lobby (and future employment promise) favors, and thus set the rules, courtesy of people like O’Malia.”

See also:

Coin News:  Gold, silver prices change narrowly

Alhambra Partners/Gold Report:  Speculating on the gold supply; Money managers – Three reasons why gold and gold stocks will rise

Got Gold Report:  COMEX Producer/Merchants in gold, view from 30,000 feet an eye opener

David Morgan/Mineweb: Smoking out Indian gold, central bank relaxes loan rules; Gold & silver bears – Was last week your best shot?

Pragmatic Capitalism:  Chart of the day – Inflation fears are rising

Conflicts Seen Supporting Gold for ‘Next Several Years’

Posted by on July 23rd 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

WorldOfProblems

Silver futures were flat on Tuesday and gold ended modestly lower, at just over $1,300 an ounce, on what was seen as a number of technical factors, such as profit-taking and chart consolidation, as well as “less risk aversion in the market place.” But according to the CPM Group’s Jeffrey Christian, the latter could be short-lived. He’s quoted by Reuters as saying that without the current crop of international conflicts, “gold probably would be down around $1,240 – $1,280 at present.”  But he also points out that these conflicts “all fester without a joint international effort to help resolve them. This means more problems being more difficult to resolve, which probably means that more investors will seek gold as a portfolio diversifier and safe haven over the next several years than otherwise.”

See also:

USA Gold/Dan Norcini:  Gold supported by geopolitical risk, even as stocks, dollar gain; Euro currency breakdown

Sharps Pixley/Mineweb:  Gold & silver – Geopolitical tensionsLawrence Williams – Escalating Ukraine crisis could blow gold sky high

Casey Research/Bloomberg:  The truth about China’s massive gold hoard; Middle East seen gaining gold share as trading expands

Telegraph:  How a golden shield can work for investors; Have central banks been breaking the law?

Zero Hedge:  Portugal president admits Espirito Santo failure could be systemic; NY Fed slams Deutsche Bank (and its €55 trillion in derivatives): Accuses it of “significant operational risk”

SRSrocco Report:  How derivatives will trigger a bond market melt-down

 

Squeezing the Shorts — ‘Watch For It’

Posted by on July 22nd 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

WatchForShortSqueeze

“You know, if someone with quite a lot of firepower were to take a good look at the Swap Dealer combined positioning in gold and silver, and exploit that by pressing the metals a bit, they sure might have a squeezing good time of it,” writes Got Gold Report‘s Gene Arensberg, in a comprehensive analysis of the current COT set-up. He goes on to predict that “Most anything can happen short term, but at some point gold and silver are going to catch a tail wind strong enough that those attempting to prevent runaway breakouts could be overwhelmed.  It is in such cases that the trader community on the COMEX becomes its most cutthroat and merciless.  If the other traders sense a trapped large trader or group of traders, you know, maybe one with a way-too-huge-short position in a rising price environment as an example … well, let’s just say that all traders consider it a duty to pile on and make them pay.  Watch for it.”

See also:

Reuters/Coin NewsGold rises above $1,300 on heightened tensions, S&P drop;  Gold rises 0.3%, silver advances 0.6%; US Mint bullion coins gain

CNBC/Zero Hedge:  David Stockman – Market’s teetering on edge, beware of Black Swan; Saxobank – “Be warned” of delayed market reaction to “escalation of global turmoil”

MarketWatch:  Bank of America Merrill Lynch – The worst for gold may be over;  Yellen encourages ‘fully-fledged equity bubble,’ says Jeremy Grantham

Bloomberg:  Fed’s junk loan bubble-busting faces trouble as sales jump; Yellen wage gauges blurred by Boomer-Millennial shift

The BRICS Post/The Telegraph:  BRICS bank capital might not be held in U.S. dollars; The dollar’s 70-year dominance is coming to an end

Financial Times:  U.S. dollar clearing rules make gold the new green

Metals Off as Rate-Rise Talk Trumps Turmoil

Posted by on July 19th 2014 in Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Uncategorized, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GazaTurmoil

Spot gold and silver were off about 1% Friday with the drop attributed to profit-taking and the prospect of an accelerated interest-rate increase, reversing Thursday’s gains and trumping events in Ukraine and Gaza.  Investigators were reportedly denied access to the Ukrainian crash site by “heavily-armed” rebels, and the U.S. is now claiming that Russia may have helped launch the missile that brought down the plane. This as Prime Minister Netanyahu said that Israel is prepared to “significantly widen” its Gaza ground offensive, as it authorized the call up of an additional 18,000 reservists, and both sides are thought to be “in this for the long haul.”

MortgageApps

As for ongoing speculation over the timing of an interest-rate increase, it was further stoked on Thursday by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, when he predicted that the Fed might have to raise short-term interest rates “sooner rather than later.” But with mortgage applications at 13-year lows, as illustrated in the above chart, Zero Hedge asks:  “Just what happens if interest rates ever rise?

Metals Up After 2-Day Drop; Indian Gold Surge

Posted by on July 17th 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

IndianGoldSurge

Both spot gold and silver were up a fraction on what Reuters describes as “bottom-picking” following two down days, but gold’s rally was said to have “faded after data showed U.S. manufacturing output rose at its fastest pace in more than two years in the second quarter,” and following a talk by Dallas Fed President Richer Fisher in which he said that the Fed was “likely” to start raising interest rates early next year. Over at Bloomberg things were shinier for gold as it highlighted a report that Indian imports surged 65% year-over-year in June.

See also:

The Gold Report:  Editor- Upward trend a silver investor’s friend

Mineweb/GATA:  Bulls might take heart from latest gold smashdown failure; The more obvious they are, the closer the day of deliverance

Bullion Bulls CanadaThe end of the paper-gold market?

Zero Hedge/CSM:  Shocking first – Mainstream media rushes to defend dollar reserve status; Can BRICS development bank become a rival to the World Bank?

Jesse’s Café Américain/Nanex:  The stock market is rigged, with details

Wall Street on Parade:  Sen. Warren lets Yellen know she’s had it with Fed’s charade about too big to fail

Metals Hit by BRICS or ‘Bubbles’?

Posted by on July 16th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, India, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

BRICSbank

As Jim Sinclair weighs in on Monday’s market shenanigans, spot gold and silver ended off 0.6% and 0.3% respectively on Tuesday.  Gold “was weakened, opined analysts, by strength in the U.S. dollar,” reports Coin News. “The greenback saw gains after Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen testified before Congress and said the U.S. economy is improving but still needed support.” This as other analysts, and some traders, also saw her testimony as “largely neutral for the gold market,” and “tended to blame the price decline on factors such as another large sell order that reportedly hit the market, sell stops, long liquidation by funds and a reaction to outside markets.”BubblesTestimony

Echoing that notion, while also downplaying the role of Yellen’s testimony, the proprietor of Jesse’s Café Américain opines that “Most would think that the slam on the metals, and that is clearly what it was, is coincident with Bubbles Yellen and her appearance before the Congress. I was thinking it was more related to the BRIC meeting in Brazil,” where, reports Newsweek, the countries “announced the long-awaited bank and contingency fund, a clear move away from the dominance of the West in global economics and the dire consequences of an unstable dollar.”

Metals Nixed, but News is Mixed

Posted by on July 15th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsSlammedLower

Spot gold and silver dropped more than 2% on Monday, with one stated reason being an easing of problems in Portugal’s banking sector, which may still be far from solved. But arguably having little to do with Portugal, there was “massive selling in the futures market. Reportedly, 2300 futures contracts, with a notional value of $1.4 billion, were sold at the New York open,” according to USA Gold:  “We’ve seen such raids in the paper market in the past. Throwing this kind of volume at the market all at once is reflective of someone not interested in getting the best price, but rather someone looking to generate shock and awe.” But while gold was being shocked and awed to its worst day in 2014, U.S. Mint bullion coin sales jumped, and GLD, the major gold ETF, was said to have seen its largest inflow since August 2011.

See also:  

Ted Butler:  The silver conspiracy

Bloomberg:  Goldman stays gold bear as bullish wagers increase; Individuals pile into stocks as pros say bull is spent

Reuters:  Yellen says Fed easy money needed even after recovery – New Yorker

Business Insider/Zero HedgeNew Yorker article seen igniting CNBC shouter; Rick Santelli goes beserk

BullionStar.com:  Koos Jansen – For how long will people trust fiat money?

Investors Discover Gold (Again); Media Ignore Silver (As Always)

Posted by on July 12th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Media, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverShunned

Although basically flat on Friday, both gold and silver logged their sixth straight week of gains, reports Reuters, “as many remained concerned about violence in the Middle East.” That sentiment is echoed by a research consultant who Reuters quotes as saying that “Investors have discovered gold again as an asset class that could provide some protection, after last year they clearly preferred the stocks market and risky assets.”

SilverSecret

And as silver ends the week with its best run in three years, it’s also up more than 10% since the start of the year, when “most analysts were calling for further price falls,” reports GoldCore, reminding that “Very few market participants and investors know about silver’s outperformance as silver gets little or no media attention. There is a huge focus given to the record highs in U.S. and some other stock markets. Therefore, silver remains the preserve of relatively few contrarian investors and store of wealth buyers.”

 See also:

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Gold and silver charts - Poised on a knife’s edge

Seeking Alpha/Midas Letter:  Yellen’s inflation dismissal unleashes massive gold & silver futures buying; 5 things that need to happen for $2,000 gold and $50 silver

Gold Silver Worlds/Futures Magazine:  Gold and silver price hugely diverting from commodities

BloombergCME/Thomson Reuters to run replacement for silver fixing

Financial Sense/MarketWatch:  Central banks moving “herd-like” into stock market; Murderer turned stock picker is ‘Oracle of San Quentin

New York Times:   Despite exposure of Madoff fraud, new Ponzi schemes emerge