Archive for the ‘IMF’ Category

Jobs # Comes Up Short for Short-Sellers

Posted by on April 5th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

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Gold and silver were said to have come “roaring off their oversold conditions” after Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report showed that 192,000 jobs were created in March.  Silver futures added 0.7% and gold futures jumped 1.5%, the biggest gain in three weeks, while stocks had what was described as a “brutal finale” to the week. “Everyone had been saying the job number was going to be so much better, but the economy didn’t improve the way investors had expected, and that’s why the short-sellers are covering their positions,” according to BullionVault‘s Miguel Perez-Santalla.  Gold and silver ended up a little less than 1% on the week, with gold closing at $1,303 an ounce and silver at $19.95.  With copper down 0.6% on the week, one analyst tells MarketWatch that “Falling copper prices are preventing the big rise in silver. We prefer to use caution for silver unless there is a convincing break of $20.45.”

See also:

Dan Norcini:  “Disappointing” payrolls number spurs gold buying

Wall Street Journal: The unemployment puzzle – Where have all the workers gone?

Zero Hedge:  Number of high wage jobs added in March: +2,000; The stock market is now exactly as overvalued as it was at the last bubble peak

Peter Schiff:  Meet “lowflation,” deflation’s scary pal

GoldMoney/Express Tribune:  Renewed estimates of Chinese gold demand; Pakistan refuses to sell $2.7 billion worth of gold says IMF

Casey Research/Of Two MindsThe Volcker Rule and you: What’s your bank doing with your money?; My wish for 2016: We finally get a president who doesn’t kiss Wall Street’s rear end

Author Sees Monetary ‘Reset’ On Horizon

Posted by on January 21st 2014 in Bailout, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, India, Monetary Policy, Russia, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

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Koos Jansen, whose Web site In Gold We Trust is an invaluable resource for information on China’s gold dealings, interviews Willem Middelkoop, described as “the Dutch equivalent of Jim Rickards,” and who is also a co-founder and principal of the Commodity Discovery Fund.

Q:  Your new book is named “The Big Reset,” isn’t our current monetary system sustainable?

 A:  No, we now have arrived at the point where it is not the banks, but the countries themselves that are getting in serious financial trouble. The idea that we can ‘grow our way back’ out of debt is naive. The current solution to ‘park’ debts on to the balance sheets of central banks is just an interim solution. A global debt restructuring will be needed, as economists Rogoff en Reinhart recently explained in their working paper for the IMF. This will include a new global reserve system to replace the current failing dollar system, probably before 2020….Read More >>>

See also:

Gold Switzerland:  Interview with Jim Rickards -  “The Fed wants gold to rise orderly

Zero Hedge/Reuters:  Gold and silver tumble most in a month; Fall on stronger dollar, tapering speculation

Economic Times:  Jim Rogers – Gold will rally, but silver will do better

Miles Franklin:  Very strong U.S. Mint sales to start 2014

Peak Prosperity:  A new way to hold gold

Chinese Gold Buyers Not Horsing Around

Posted by on January 20th 2014 in CFTC, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

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With 2014 being the Year of the Horse, Mineweb reports that gold’s price drop has resulted in Chinese “demand galloping to new heights before the start of the Lunar New Year on January 31.”  It cites a Chinese media report that “gold sales had surpassed 10 million yuan ($1.7 million) an hour, after Cai Bai jewelers in Beijing opened to a scintillating start on January 1, setting a new record.”  And that was preceded by another retail gold rush on December 25th, as Christmas day in the West has become “Consumer Day” in China.
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This as the Shanghai Daily reports an analyst’s prediction that China may soon announce that its official gold reserve has more than doubled from 1,054 tons to 2,710 tons.  Last summer Jim Rickards predicted that China will announce a gold reserve of 5,000 tonnes in April of this year.
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See also:
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Most U.S. markets closed in observance off Martin Luther King Jr. Day
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Reuters/Arabian Money:  Six-week high for gold at $1,260 an ounce in London; Shanghai Gold Exchange delivers a record 2,197 tonnes in 2013
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Tim Iacono:  U.S. investors show new interest in gold and silver
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Barron’s:  JPMorganGold price may be close to bottom/Dan Norcini comments
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Jesse’s Café Américain:  Gold and silver charts – An overly well-advertised short squeeze
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Zero Hedge:  Physical gold shortage goes mainstream; Germany has recovered a paltry 5 tons of gold from the NY Fed after one year
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GATA: Is Germany’s gold in France as impaired as its gold at the New York Fed?

Hathaway: If You Can’t Hold It, Fold It

Posted by on December 13th 2013 in Bailout, CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, IMF, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

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In what is heralded as “a brilliant study of the gold market,” Tocqueville Gold Fund’s John Hathaway looks at the “Big Picture in Gold as We Head into 2014″ and concludes with two words of advice, get physical:

“It seems to us that restoration of sustainable fiscal order remains a long shot and that money printing, thought by most to be only an emergency measure, will become the norm. Our negative view on the prospects for fiat currency has not been invalidated by the steep two year decline in gold price. When the market reverses, the diminished physical anchor to paper claims, concerns over title and encumbrances on central bank bullion, and worries over the drift of public policy will drive liquid capital into gold. However, this time around, it seems to us that the major recipient of flows will be the physical metal itself. Holders of paper claims to gold will receive polite and apologetic letters from intermediaries offering to settle in cash at prices well below the physical market. To those who wish to hold their wealth exclusively in paper assets, implicitly trusting the policy elites to resurrect normally functioning capital markets and economic conditions, we say good luck. For those who harbor doubts on such an outcome, we say get physical.”

More from Hathaway in a follow-up interview to his article, in which he reiterates that “We are in a world of permanent money printing, and what may trigger this massive squeeze in gold to new all-time highs is when this all dawns on the investment community at large.”

See also:

Mises Daily:  How the paper money experiment will end

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Holding gold or silver in unallocated storage or in ETFs & brokerage accounts

MarketWatch:  Gold & silver advance to post slight weekly gain; JPMorgan cuts 2014 gold forecast by 10%, leaves silver unchanged

Index Universe:  Gold could surprise on the upside next year

Zero HedgeSafe-havens sought as stocks tumble to worst run in 4 months

Dan Norcini:  Commitment of Traders and the reverse flash crash

Bubble Trouble?

Posted by on December 13th 2013 in Bailout, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

BubbleTrouble

Spiegel:  “Central banks around the world are pumping trillions into the economy. The goal is to stimulate growth, but their actions are also driving up prices in the real estate and equities markets. The question is no longer whether there will be a crash, but when.”

North Korea Reportedly Selling Gold to China

Posted by on December 11th 2013 in CFTC, China, Gold, IMF, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

UnTrader

Following up on South Korean news reports that North Korea has begun to sell “large amounts” of gold to China to deal with a worsening economic crisis, and has uncharacteristically tapped into its reserves for the sales, Mineweb‘s Lawrence Williams points out that “this could be another indicator This photo released by North Korea's KCNA news agency in Pyongyang on October 1, 2010 shows gold commemorative coins issued to celebrate the 65th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea.       REUTERS/KCNA (NORTH KOREA - Tags: POLITICS) NO THIRD PARTY SALES. NOT FOR USE BY REUTERS THIRD PARTY DISTRIBUTORS. THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. IT IS DISTRIBUTED, EXACTLY AS RECEIVED BY REUTERS, AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTSthat China is building reserves without reporting this to the IMF.”  As of 2007, North Korea, which doesn’t report its gold holdings to the IMF, was thought to have reserves of around 2,000 tonnes, which would definitely place it in the top ten of officially reported holdings.

A MarketWatch blog post on the reports notes that while North Korea “has vast mineral deposits and is estimated to have sizeable gold reserves…. it lacks electricity and equipment to mine the minerals, said Choi Kyung-soo, president of North Korea Resources InstituteNorthKoreanSilver in Seoul, in a research paper published last year.” See an article summarizing the paper here.

In March of this year, it was reported that Jim Rogers was snapping up gold and silver coins from North Korea.

See also:

GoldSeek:  Gold and silver end slightly lower

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Gold and silver charts – JPMorgan the ‘stopper’

Bloomberg:  Wall Street exhales as Volcker Rule seen sparing market-making

Zero Hedge: What the banks spent to get the “Volcker Rule” outcome they desired

WSJ:  Former TARP IG:  Volcker Rule makes taxpayers ‘safer, if not safe

Mineweb:  What are gold, silver and Bitcoin doing to each other?

Alasdair Macleod:  The great game accelerates…

Gold Takes One-Way Trip East

Posted by on November 15th 2013 in China, General Economy, Gold, IMF, India, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Gold'sOneWayTripEast

Following up on its report that “China could match U.S. gold reserves inside 10 years – or earlier,” Mineweb deploys the above graph to illustrate “gold’s inexorable move east.”  It shows the percentage change in investment demand between the first three quarters of 2012 and 2013, and comes from the World Gold Council’s Q3 Demand Trends that was released on Thursday.  And in another article based on the WGC’s release, Reuters reports that “China is this year set to usurp India as the world’s biggest gold consumer by a convincing margin as strict import rules introduced by New Delhi bite.”

And detailing the boom in Asian vaults, the Sprott Group’s David Franklin writes that the new facilities “further reflect the enormous increase in the physical precious metals trade and a requirement for secure storage. With these new vaults located in Asia (or now owned by Asians) it would appear the massive amounts of gold being shipped East will not see the inside of a London or Swiss vault ever again.”

Metals Seen Gaining on ‘Currency Wars’ Relaunch

Posted by on November 11th 2013 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, India, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

CurrencyWarsRelaunch

Following up on a Bloomberg report that “The global currency wars are heating up again as central banks embark on a new round of easing to combat a slowdown in growth,” Zero Hedge calls the account mostly accurate with the exception of “one fundamental flaw: currency wars never left, but were merely put on hiatus as the liquidity tsunami resulting from the Bank of Japan’s mega easing lifted all boats for a few months.” And as “global trade continues to contract despite the ongoing surge in global liquidity, central banks are back to doing the one thing they can – printing more.”

The Zero Hedge post asks:  “So what should one watch for now that even the mainstream media admits the currency wars are ‘back’? Goldman lists the 5 key areas to watch as central banks resume beggar thy neighbor policies with never before seen vigor.”  Those 5 include, “an argument that competitive devaluations could boost precious metals. That view is based on the simplification that gold, for example, is a ‘homeless’ currency without a central bank that tries to block its appreciation. Another way of saying the same is that many asset prices may rise in response to continued and competitive monetary easing, which is a key feature of such a non-collaborative exchange rate mechanism.”

See also:

Globe & Mail:  Is a currency war coming? It may already be here

Everything Financial Radio: Interview with “Currency Wars” author, Jim Rickards

CNBC:  Fragile five:  The new focus of currency wars

Gold Hurt by ‘Blindness to Downside Circumstances’

Posted by on October 10th 2013 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, IMF, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MarketBlindness2The prospect of a debt-ceiling deal sent the Dow soaring more than 300 points on Thursday, while Comex gold and silver fell 1.3% and 0.8% respectively.

“Gold continues its interesting unfavorability as the metal crossed [below] $1,300 again,” and it’s “paying a costly price for a current blindness to downside circumstances that hide in the distance,” according to an investment advisor quoted by MarketWatch.  He added that “Surging markets still hold the limelight, with inflation and geopolitical unrest an afterthought.”

The article also quotes an observation by Sharps Pixley’s Ross Norman, that gold’s “bearish tone continues to predominate despite some fairly epic concerns over the U.S. economy and possible contagion into the global markets.” Norman elaborates in a commentary for Futures magazine, “Gold struggles in Frankenstein economy.”

News & Views

Zero Hedge/Jesse’s Café Américain: Stocks soar most in 2013 as bullion & Boehner beaten down; Cap and slap in the after-hours trade

Forbes:  House GOP’s plan to extend debt limit would accomplish nothing

Dan Norcini:  Gold stuck in limbo; What are the gold shares saying?

CNBC:  Why gold is set for a 20% rally

WSJ/Want China Times/Zero Hedge:  China’s hunger for gold triggers speculation about reserves; 2% of China’s public consumes 1/3rd of world’s luxury goods; The incredible shrinking world (relative to China)

Reuters/Forbes:  IMF can keep funding low-income countries via gold profits; Measured in gold, the story of American wages is an ugly one

GoldSilver.com/Sovereign Man:  Race to debase – Fiat currencies vs. silver & gold – 2000 to 2013Q3; Gold, and the four words that define Western economic policy

Yahoo Finance/Zero Hedge:  Jim Rickards on Fed & Yellen:  Here comes the ‘helicopter money’; A look at the Fed’s nest in 2014 – Next year’s voting hawks and doves

Cyniconomics/Washington Post:  Yellin’ for Yellen: I must have fallen asleep and woken up in 2006; Yellen in her own words

ProPublica:  New York Fed fired examiner who took on Goldman Sachs

WSJ/Reuters:  Goldman pops up in China bribery swoop; China arrests chairman of world’s largest tin producer for bribes

Spiegel/Bloomberg:  Like an offshore paradise: Vatican moves to close dirty accounts; Jewish art dealers’ heirs claim gold treasure bought by Goering

Over$2.5BillionSold

Precious Metals ‘Ablaze’; Gold Shorts ‘Feeling Heat’

Posted by on August 23rd 2013 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, India, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | 1 comment

With silver & gold gaining 3.1% & 1.8% respectively on Friday, one commentator tells MarketWatch that “Gold is trading off tapering expectations, and basically we’re seeing the new home sales miss imply tapering will be delayed,” adding that “There are still a huge number of shorts in gold that need to cover, and this will make them nervous.”

And Zero Hedge concurs, suggesting that “the still-unprecedented short-interest in Comex gold futures may well be feeling more heat here….  It seems the crossing of the Maginot 100-day moving average combined with Jackson Hole chatter and the dismal new home sales data has set the precious metals ablaze once again. For the first time since early June, gold has crossed the psychological $1,400 level (up 18.5% from its 6/18 lows).”

News & Views

Bloomberg/Golden Truth/Forbes:  Gold tops $1,400 after housing slump spurs stimulus bets

Got Gold Report:  Friday gold, silver breakouts in pictures; Swap your gold shares for coins, ETF firm offers

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Gold & silver charts – Inverse head & shoulders continues to form; The center of the gold trading world is now in Shanghai

KWN/Jim Sinclair:  Grant Williams – West is now running out of physical gold; Price manipulations in gold now favor the bullish side

Bull Market Thinking/Bloomberg:  Indian gold dealer – “Gold is now trading at $1,800/oz…”; Gold’s rout spurs surge in Indonesian demand

P. Radomski/SilverSeek:  What would further stock market growth mean to silver?; Using gold to forecast silver’s final blow-off rally

GoldCore:  Academic researchers- Gold acts as a safe haven against US dollar & British pound

CNBC/Barron’s:  Fed’s Lockhart, Bullard differ over September taper; Events since July FOMC meeting suggest weakness, superseding stale comments

Reuters:  IMF’s Lagarde – Central banks don’t need to rush ultra-easy money exit; Study – Fed should focus on mortgage buys, sell Treasuries

Wikipedia/Zero HedgeSell-side to Fed – “Don’t leave us now

Washington Post:  Between 2000 and 2012, American wages grew…not at all

Bloomberg:  CFTC said near releasing plans for regulating high-speed trading; FBI said to hunt for criminal acts in JPMorgan bid probe

Gold Curbs Rev Up Indian Silver Market

Posted by on August 6th 2013 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, India, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

As an Indian company offers custom built motorcycles covered in silver, that carry a price tag of five million rupees ($81,169) or 10 million, depending on the brand, Mineweb reports that “India’s import duty curbs on gold and the ongoing lull in the precious metal’s demand has got investors veering towards silver. At 857 metric tonnes between April to July this year, silver imports have posted a staggering 258.65% growth, as compared to 239 metric tonnes imported in the corresponding four months of the last year. Silver imports in July, coming in at 274.92 metric tonnes, have been termed the highest in the last five years.”

It quotes one trader as saying that “Given the wide scale restrictions on gold, and with investors seeking bullion, we have decided to import more silver. The current gold prices are too high and there is too much confusion about the import curbs on gold. We have decided to stick to silver till things normalise in the Indian market.” Earlier:  India unleashes ‘staggering’ silver demand

News & Views

Reuters:  Gold down 1.5 pct, hits near 3-week low on U.S. data; silver off 0.8%; Surging US exports whittle trade gap to 3.5-year low

Bloomberg:  Gold posts longest slump in 11 weeks on stimulus outlook; Fed’s Evans sees labor improvement with September taper possible

Jesse’s Café Américain/KWN:  Gold & silver charts:  Hedge funds stage limp bear raid in light volume; Here’s why there’s a war in gold near the key $1,300 level

Forbes/P. Radomski/Gold Silver Worlds:  What’s moving the price of gold?; Gold’s price moves from different perspectives; Has gold exited the bull market?

Minyanville:  Avi Gilburt – Silver and gold can go either way

Mineweb:  HSBC – Low price aside, ‘silver still worth digging for’; Lawrence Williams – Could China confiscate its citizens’ gold en route to global domination?

Bloomberg:  China’s gold imports from Hong Kong decline as demand slows

CNBC:  World Gold Council-China & India to boost gold;  Bullion’s speculative trade near its end

Of Two Minds:  The case for Fed tapering sooner rather than later

ETF Guide/RT.com:  Bond losses at Federal Reserve top $192 billion; Study – US debt six times greater than declared

Zero Hedge:  Spot the next credit crisis; Italian debt-to-GDP worst since Mussolini

Telegraph:  IMF crosses swords with Germany over crisis handling;  IMF sees no end to French jobless crisis this decade

Washington Post/Reuters:  The NSA is giving your phone records to the DEA. And the DEA is covering it up; U.S. to review DEA unit that hides use of intel in crime cases  

Zero Hedge:  FBI probing holes in early economic data release

Bernanke Back Talking Down Gold; Papers Over Virtues

Posted by on July 18th 2013 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, India, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Although Ron Paul is gone, Fed Chairman Bernanke “was forced to answer questions about gold on Thursday again,” reports Forbes‘ Agustino Fontevecchia:  “‘No one really understands gold prices,’ Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee, adding he doesn’t portend to either…. Bernanke had more things to say about the yellow metal.  Calling it ‘an unusual asset,’ the Fed Chairman noted people hold gold both as ‘disaster insurance‘ and as an inflation hedge.  He expressed surprise about the later, noting ‘movements in gold’ don’t predict inflation well.  Bernanke took solace in the marked decline in gold prices, though, suggesting they could reflect diminishing concerns over really bad outcomes.”

“Or, even simpler,” as Zero Hedge puts it, “gold may be lower on more paper gold sellers than paper buyers.”

News & Views

Reuters:  Gold rebounds 0.8% on crude oil gains, short-covering, silver adds 0.9%; Gold gains third time in four days on increased physical demand

The Street:  World Gold Council – Physical gold demand sets floor

Dan Norcini/New York Sun: Bernanke testimony:  $1300 rejects gold; ‘A strange glow’

Mineweb:  David Levenstein – Gold traders seem solely focused on Bernanke for now

Sprott Asset Management:  Do Western central banks have any gold left? – Part 3 (Parts 1 and 2)

SilverSeek:  The precious metal investors greatest secret weapon

KWN:  Raymond James strategist – Gold & the most remarkable thing I’ve seen in 50 years; John Hathaway – Gold, silver, the Fed & what to expect next

Jesse’s Café Américain:  China reportedly planning to back the yuan with gold

Telegraph/CNN Money:  China defies IMF on mounting credit risk and need for urgent reform; China seen surpassing U.S. in superpower shift

Bullion Street:  India needs to address dowry system to tame gold; Earlier – Married to gold

Wall Street for Main Street/TF Metals Report:  Precious metals market manipulation round table; GLD deception reaches a new level

Spiegel:  German finance minister pledges 100 million euros to Greece; Greece on the brink – Athens may need 10 billion more

Atlantic/NBC News:  NSA admits it analyzes more people’s data than previously revealed; Stores may be tracking you through your cellphone