Archive for the ‘IMF’ Category

Gold Logs Safe-Haven Win on IMF Trim

Posted by on October 8th 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, Interest Rates, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | 1 comment

IMForecast

Spot gold and silver ended mixed on Tuesday, with gold gaining 0.4% to continue its rebound and silver easing 0.3%, but silver futures did add a penny.  Gold’s safe-haven appeal was seen increasing after Germany reported a dramatic 4% drop in industrial production from July, the biggest decline since 2009, and the IMF again lowered its global growth forecast for 2014 and 2015.  It also warned that financial markets “may have underpriced risks by not fully internalizing the uncertainties around the global outlook. A larger-than-expected increase  in U.S. long-term interest rates, geopolitical events, or major growth disappointments could trigger widespread disruption.”

See also:

P. Radomski:  Gold & silver trading alert – Huge reversal in USD and gold – finally!

GoldCore/SafeHaven:  Silver “particularly cheap” with “blood on the commodity streets”; Silver extremes say look at me

The Australian/USA Today:  Shanghai gold surprise in store; China currency push takes aim at dollar

GATA:  Tocqueville’s Hathaway: China has it right about gold and the dollar, in his Q3 letter to investors

Seeking Alpha/Reuters:  Fed’s Kocherlakota – Forget rake hikes in 2015;  It’s a ‘wintry economy‘ out there

David Stockman:  Inside September’s “born again” jobs report

Metals Prepare to Run News ‘Gauntlet’

Posted by on July 30th 2014 in CFTC, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

NewsGauntlet

Gold and silver futures inched down and up repectively on Tuesday in advance of Wednesday’s “gauntlet” of GDP and Fed news. Gold was also said to have been pressured by a rise in U.S. consumer confidence — debt collectors be damned! and a stronger U.S. dollar, which hit a 2014 high against the euro on Tuesday. Wondering “if gold would be able to hold $1280 should the euro fall accelerate,” Dan Norcini opines that “the only thing currently holding gold higher is geopolitical tension. Were it not for those events ( and who knows how all this is going to end) gold would be lower, especially with the dollar strength we are witnessing. Those events should continue to bring some safe haven buying into the yellow metal for the time being which will work to mitigate any sharp drops in price that could occur.”

See also:

BullionVault/Mineweb:  Gold prices move “sideways” ahead of “auto-pilot Fed” and US jobs data; Watch U.S. GDP, jobs reports, not Yellen for gold impact

Telegraph:  Sharp interest rate hikes could trigger global growth shock

David Levenstein/MarketWatch:  While other currencies emerge as an alternative to U.S. dollar, gold will also benefit; Foreigners complain about the dollar but keep buying it

SafeHaven/SilverSeekSilver set to star; Silver prices – megaphone patterns

Zero Hedge:  Jim Grant- Gold is the ultimate inoculation against harebrained central bankers”

Metals Retreat; West Bank Palestinians Advance

Posted by on July 25th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, General Economy, Gold, IMF, Middle East, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsRetreatPalestiniansAdvance

Gold and silver ended down about 1% and 2.5% respectively on Thursday, representing a buying opportunity for one scribe, as global strife took a back seat to what was seen as positive economic news from the eurozone and China, and on U.S. jobless claims hitting an eight-year low.  But citing earlier “negative surprises” from the U.S. and Chinese economies, and ongoing geopolitical risks, the IMF lowered its global growth forecast for 2014.

With gold dropping below $1,300 and stalling at its 200-day moving average, Reuters quotes one observer as saying, “To be fair, I think some people have a right to be disappointed that the stresses around the world haven’t led to a continued rise in the price of gold. We’re probably in oversold territory right now where gold is concerned, but we also seem to be pulling into an area between $1,290 and $1,280 that should offer some support to the market.”

See also:

Dan Norcini/Reuters:  China gold demand slumps 19.4 pct on yr, but output rises

Ted Butler:  Silver tightness

Hard Assets Investor:  Gold’s fair value – bear says $800, bull says $5,000

Investing.com/SafeHavenHappy markets in an unhappy world; Clear and present danger zone

Bloomberg/Business Insider:  Don’t tell anybody about this story on HFT power Jump Trading, one of 10 being eyed by the SEC

Wall Street On Parade:  Lawsuit stunner – Half of futures trades in Chicago are illegal wash trades

Metals Hit by BRICS or ‘Bubbles’?

Posted by on July 16th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, India, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

BRICSbank

As Jim Sinclair weighs in on Monday’s market shenanigans, spot gold and silver ended off 0.6% and 0.3% respectively on Tuesday.  Gold “was weakened, opined analysts, by strength in the U.S. dollar,” reports Coin News. “The greenback saw gains after Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen testified before Congress and said the U.S. economy is improving but still needed support.” This as other analysts, and some traders, also saw her testimony as “largely neutral for the gold market,” and “tended to blame the price decline on factors such as another large sell order that reportedly hit the market, sell stops, long liquidation by funds and a reaction to outside markets.”BubblesTestimony

Echoing that notion, while also downplaying the role of Yellen’s testimony, the proprietor of Jesse’s Café Américain opines that “Most would think that the slam on the metals, and that is clearly what it was, is coincident with Bubbles Yellen and her appearance before the Congress. I was thinking it was more related to the BRIC meeting in Brazil,” where, reports Newsweek, the countries “announced the long-awaited bank and contingency fund, a clear move away from the dominance of the West in global economics and the dire consequences of an unstable dollar.”

‘Boring’ Gold ‘Quite Resilient’ as ETF Holdings Surge

Posted by on July 3rd 2014 in CFTC, China, Clinton Inc., Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, IMF, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GoldETFSurge

With gold and silver futures gaining 0.3% and 0.9% respectively ahead of Thursday morning’s release of the jobs report for June, BullionVault‘s Adrian Ash tells MarketWatch that “Mid-June’s big jump aside, gold has become so boring not even U.S. payrolls are giving traders much fun right now,” but he adds that unless the jobs number exceeds 300,000, “it’s hard to see U.S. futures getting sold before the long weekend.”

This as Bloomberg reports that assets in GLD rose 1.4% on Monday and Tuesday of this week, the biggest two-day gain since November 2011. The article quotes one commodity broker as saying that “the dovish outlook from the Fed is increasing interest in gold, and we are seeing some investors return,” and cites a report from UBS AG analysts, who wrote that “Although the overall macroeconomic backdrop remains unfriendly towards gold, with ongoing QE tapering, looming rate hikes and stocks at record highs, prices have generally been quite resilient.  That the aggressive ETF selling of 2013 has not made a comeback has provided ongoing support.”

See also:

BullionVault/SRSrocco Report:  Silver prices- Is 14% enough for one month?; The coming two-stage rally in silver;

Alhambra Investment Partners/CNBCThe golden tail?; Trader- Gold will be the second half’s big winner

USA Today/The Hill:  Stock market’s correction-free run tops 1,000 days; Another financial meltdown on the horizon?

Arabian Money:  Is gold going to be an effective hedge in the next global financial crisis?

NY Times/Reuters:  Janet Yellen signals she won’t raise interest rates to fight bubbles; Yellen drives wedge between monetary policy, financial bubbles

Zero Hedge:  The Fed’s inflation survey that the Fed would rather not hear; “Clinton Inc.” raises almost $3 billion, and the biggest ‘donor’ is…

Wall Street on Parade:  Hillary and Bill- Their rugged journey from paupers to one-percenters in 365 days

Gold Holds Gains; Silver Keeps Surging

Posted by on June 21st 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, IMF, Iraq, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 BestWeekForMetalsInFourMonths

Gold futures inched up 0.2% on Friday, but silver gained 1.5% on what was seen as a “perfect storm” of buying.  Both metals had their best week in four months, and according to a Bloomberg report, “Trading in bullion options show the biggest rally in nine months has more to run after some contracts betting on higher prices surged by the most since 2012 yesterday.”  It points to Fed Chair Yellen’s outlook for low U.S. interest rates as “bringing investors back to gold.”

But another theory for the metals’ rise that took root in the financial alternative media — see post below — gets some mainstream exposure.  MarketWatch quotes an FX strategist who says that “In the background, the unwind of China’s commodity financing deals may be helping to boost the price of gold as Chinese speculators sell their physical gold and at the same time buy back their hedges in the futures market.  This mechanism assumes that the paper market dominates the pricing of gold rather than the physical market, which seems possible given the difference in volumes.” That it does. How about 55 to 1?; Maybe 100 to 1?; Or even 400 to 1?

See also:

Dan Norcini:  Silver takes the lead over gold; Inflation expectations rise this week

Arabian Money:  Geopolitics more important than Fed hints on inflation in shifting gold & silver prices higher from here

KWN:  Andrew Maguire – 90-ton delivery triggered short squeeze in gold; Grant Williams: “Given [gold's] scarcity, the prices that we could see are astronomical”

In Gold We Trust:  Investment gold demand higher in Switzerland than China?

Wall Street Journal:  IMF girds for market storms ahead; The Fed’s never-ending downward growth revisions

CBS News:  Former Goldman Sachs trader sues over skimpy $8.25 million bonus

Metals Pause, But Iraq Seen Keeping Shorts at Bay

Posted by on June 17th 2014 in CFTC, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, Iraq, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

ShortCovering

Spot gold and silver fell 0.3 percent Monday, on what a Reuters report attributes to profit taking. “Gold is taking a breather after a very big move,” according to one precious metals dealer, who added that “Any significant moves like this in gold tells me that financial markets are scared.” But gold and silver futures inched up to kept their winning streak intact, with Bloomberg quoting the head of a London-based precious metals group pointing to Iraq as “having a big effect on oil, and gold is seeing fresh buying and short covering on the back of this.  While the uncertainty and unrest remains, one certainly doesn’t want to be short.”

See also:

Peak Prosperity/Daily FX: Iraq breaks down, oil surges; Crude oil & gold aiming higher as conflict in Iraq intensifies

SafeHaven:  The Aden sisters – Gold finally bombed out

InvestmentWatch/Bloomberg:  Silver chart & sentiment show potentially very sharp rally; LME aims for test in two weeks of new silver benchmark

MacroBusiness/Zero Hedge:  Central banks goose stock markets;  Have secretly invested $29 trillion

Doug Noland/John Hussman:  Sound or unsound?; Formula for market extremes

USA Today/Michael Pento:  IMF cuts U.S. growth forecast for 2014; Mafia GDP

Jobs # Comes Up Short for Short-Sellers

Posted by on April 5th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Mar14JobsShort

Gold and silver were said to have come “roaring off their oversold conditions” after Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report showed that 192,000 jobs were created in March.  Silver futures added 0.7% and gold futures jumped 1.5%, the biggest gain in three weeks, while stocks had what was described as a “brutal finale” to the week. “Everyone had been saying the job number was going to be so much better, but the economy didn’t improve the way investors had expected, and that’s why the short-sellers are covering their positions,” according to BullionVault‘s Miguel Perez-Santalla.  Gold and silver ended up a little less than 1% on the week, with gold closing at $1,303 an ounce and silver at $19.95.  With copper down 0.6% on the week, one analyst tells MarketWatch that “Falling copper prices are preventing the big rise in silver. We prefer to use caution for silver unless there is a convincing break of $20.45.”

See also:

Dan Norcini:  “Disappointing” payrolls number spurs gold buying

Wall Street Journal: The unemployment puzzle – Where have all the workers gone?

Zero Hedge:  Number of high wage jobs added in March: +2,000; The stock market is now exactly as overvalued as it was at the last bubble peak

Peter Schiff:  Meet “lowflation,” deflation’s scary pal

GoldMoney/Express Tribune:  Renewed estimates of Chinese gold demand; Pakistan refuses to sell $2.7 billion worth of gold says IMF

Casey Research/Of Two MindsThe Volcker Rule and you: What’s your bank doing with your money?; My wish for 2016: We finally get a president who doesn’t kiss Wall Street’s rear end

Author Sees Monetary ‘Reset’ On Horizon

Posted by on January 21st 2014 in Bailout, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, India, Monetary Policy, Russia, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

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Koos Jansen, whose Web site In Gold We Trust is an invaluable resource for information on China’s gold dealings, interviews Willem Middelkoop, described as “the Dutch equivalent of Jim Rickards,” and who is also a co-founder and principal of the Commodity Discovery Fund.

Q:  Your new book is named “The Big Reset,” isn’t our current monetary system sustainable?

 A:  No, we now have arrived at the point where it is not the banks, but the countries themselves that are getting in serious financial trouble. The idea that we can ‘grow our way back’ out of debt is naive. The current solution to ‘park’ debts on to the balance sheets of central banks is just an interim solution. A global debt restructuring will be needed, as economists Rogoff en Reinhart recently explained in their working paper for the IMF. This will include a new global reserve system to replace the current failing dollar system, probably before 2020….Read More >>>

See also:

Gold Switzerland:  Interview with Jim Rickards -  “The Fed wants gold to rise orderly

Zero Hedge/Reuters:  Gold and silver tumble most in a month; Fall on stronger dollar, tapering speculation

Economic Times:  Jim Rogers – Gold will rally, but silver will do better

Miles Franklin:  Very strong U.S. Mint sales to start 2014

Peak Prosperity:  A new way to hold gold

Chinese Gold Buyers Not Horsing Around

Posted by on January 20th 2014 in CFTC, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

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With 2014 being the Year of the Horse, Mineweb reports that gold’s price drop has resulted in Chinese “demand galloping to new heights before the start of the Lunar New Year on January 31.”  It cites a Chinese media report that “gold sales had surpassed 10 million yuan ($1.7 million) an hour, after Cai Bai jewelers in Beijing opened to a scintillating start on January 1, setting a new record.”  And that was preceded by another retail gold rush on December 25th, as Christmas day in the West has become “Consumer Day” in China.
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This as the Shanghai Daily reports an analyst’s prediction that China may soon announce that its official gold reserve has more than doubled from 1,054 tons to 2,710 tons.  Last summer Jim Rickards predicted that China will announce a gold reserve of 5,000 tonnes in April of this year.
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See also:
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Most U.S. markets closed in observance off Martin Luther King Jr. Day
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Reuters/Arabian Money:  Six-week high for gold at $1,260 an ounce in London; Shanghai Gold Exchange delivers a record 2,197 tonnes in 2013
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Tim Iacono:  U.S. investors show new interest in gold and silver
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Barron’s:  JPMorganGold price may be close to bottom/Dan Norcini comments
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Jesse’s Café Américain:  Gold and silver charts – An overly well-advertised short squeeze
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Zero Hedge:  Physical gold shortage goes mainstream; Germany has recovered a paltry 5 tons of gold from the NY Fed after one year
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GATA: Is Germany’s gold in France as impaired as its gold at the New York Fed?

Hathaway: If You Can’t Hold It, Fold It

Posted by on December 13th 2013 in Bailout, CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, IMF, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

HoldingGold

In what is heralded as “a brilliant study of the gold market,” Tocqueville Gold Fund’s John Hathaway looks at the “Big Picture in Gold as We Head into 2014″ and concludes with two words of advice, get physical:

“It seems to us that restoration of sustainable fiscal order remains a long shot and that money printing, thought by most to be only an emergency measure, will become the norm. Our negative view on the prospects for fiat currency has not been invalidated by the steep two year decline in gold price. When the market reverses, the diminished physical anchor to paper claims, concerns over title and encumbrances on central bank bullion, and worries over the drift of public policy will drive liquid capital into gold. However, this time around, it seems to us that the major recipient of flows will be the physical metal itself. Holders of paper claims to gold will receive polite and apologetic letters from intermediaries offering to settle in cash at prices well below the physical market. To those who wish to hold their wealth exclusively in paper assets, implicitly trusting the policy elites to resurrect normally functioning capital markets and economic conditions, we say good luck. For those who harbor doubts on such an outcome, we say get physical.”

More from Hathaway in a follow-up interview to his article, in which he reiterates that “We are in a world of permanent money printing, and what may trigger this massive squeeze in gold to new all-time highs is when this all dawns on the investment community at large.”

See also:

Mises Daily:  How the paper money experiment will end

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Holding gold or silver in unallocated storage or in ETFs & brokerage accounts

MarketWatch:  Gold & silver advance to post slight weekly gain; JPMorgan cuts 2014 gold forecast by 10%, leaves silver unchanged

Index Universe:  Gold could surprise on the upside next year

Zero HedgeSafe-havens sought as stocks tumble to worst run in 4 months

Dan Norcini:  Commitment of Traders and the reverse flash crash

Bubble Trouble?

Posted by on December 13th 2013 in Bailout, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, IMF, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

BubbleTrouble

Spiegel:  “Central banks around the world are pumping trillions into the economy. The goal is to stimulate growth, but their actions are also driving up prices in the real estate and equities markets. The question is no longer whether there will be a crash, but when.”