Archive for the ‘JPMorgan’ Category

Russia vs. Ukraine; Banks vs. Bullion

Posted by on August 29th 2014 in CME Group, Gold, JPMorgan, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsGainOnUkraine

Spot gold and silver gained about a half a percent Thursday as tensions ratcheted up between Ukraine and Russia. “The market is getting nervous about the Ukraine situation, and people are moving to gold,” said one commodities broker, adding that “Talks of further sanctions against Russia are increasing the safe-haven premium of gold.” And while noting that the “propaganda is flying hot and heavy from both sides” of the Ukraine border, Jesse’s Café Américain suggests that “A real flight to safety would crush the precious metal shorts if it spills over from paper to the bullion markets.  And so I would look for the banks to do all that they can to avoid it, diffuse it, deflect that possibility.”

Ted Butler: How Silver Could Bubble Up

Posted by on August 27th 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverBubbleIn making the case for a “coming silver bubble,” Ted Butler explains that “an asset bubble develops when an undervalued asset which has a compelling investment story and there exists an overall financial environment of sufficient buying power, catches the collective interest of the crowd. For example, by the mid-2000’s and after years of steady appreciation, residential real estate developed into an asset bubble amid the self-fulfilling cycle of continued gains and the availability of easy credit.

As far as great stories go, silver has the best potential story to develop into a bubble. First, there is little argument BubblingUpthat it is among the most, if not the most undervalued asset of all by objective relative historical price comparison. In addition, it is at or below its primary cost of production, as evidenced in recent quarterly earnings reports. Remember, most bubbles start out with an asset that is undervalued – on this score silver more than qualifies as being undervalued. Aside from extreme undervaluation, the silver story is multi-faceted.”… Read More >>>

See also:

Coin News/SRSrocco ReportGold, silver rise; Silver Eagle bullion coins top 28M;  Shanghai silver warehouse stocks fall 24% in one week

Bloomberg/LA Times: Gold advances most in two weeks on Ukraine tension

GoldCore/GoldSeek:  Russia coordinating gold reserve accumulation with ex-Soviet states?; Will the U.S. succeed in breaking Russia to maintain dollar hegemony?

Mineweb/SafeHaven:  Is Asian gold demand really slipping so much?; Road sign says – Pot of gold ahead

Daily Reckoning/Zero Hedge:  As the Fed prints money, buy gold and brace for impact; Council on Foreign Relations – “Central Banks should hand consumers cash directly

Russia, Ukraine Stand Off; U.S. Shoppers Stand Down

Posted by on August 14th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, JPMorgan, Middle East, Russia, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 ShoppersStandDown

Silver futures finished off 0.3% on Wednesday, which is what gold ended up, with the impetus being July’s flat retail sales, described as “an appalling number” that “has faded the notion of a hike in the interest rate by the Fed, at least today.” And while U.S. data held sway over geopolitics, fighting resumed between Israel and Hamas, U.S. troops are on the ground in Iraq, and the Russian aid convoy headed to Ukraine has gone to ground at a Russian military base,  some 300 miles from its Ukrainian destination of Luhansk.  This as Ukraine’s Interior Minister declared that “No Putin ‘humanitarian convoy’ will be permitted to travel through the territory of Kharkiv region.”

See also:

Zero Hedge:  Stocks up, bonds up, gold up, oil up, dollar up, f’d up; Saxo Bank warns of 3 ‘other’ geopolitical risks investors are ignoring

ReutersCommodity future – Islamic State militants grab new weapon – Iraqi wheat

BullionStar.com/Profit ConfidentialSilver scarce in Shanghai, futures curve in backwardation; The world supply of gold bullion is shrinking

The Gold Report:  Jim Rickards and Peter Schiff discuss global gold markets

Reuters:  U.S. Mint to use new silver benchmark for coin sales, purchases; London gold fix lawsuits to be consolidated in New York

bookcoverWall Street on Parade:  How high up did the Madoff fraud go at JPMorgan?

Read the first chapter of  JPMadoff: The Unholy Alliance Between America’s Biggest Bank and America’s Biggest Crook

Silver and Gold Decouple; Silver Coin Sales Rebound

Posted by on August 6th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Silver&GoldDecouple

Spot gold and silver prices decoupled on Tuesday, with the latter off 1.8% while gold added 0.2%, reports Reuters, “as a tumble in U.S. equities and worries about escalation of military action in eastern Ukraine helped bullion recover earlier losses driven by bullish U.S. economic data. Silver and gold were both pressured early by a higher dollar, and according to one analyst quoted by Bloomberg, “there is little physical demand for silver.”  But while the article points out that the U.S. Mints’s July sales of silver coins were off 27 percent from June, Coin News reports that the mint’s bullion coin sales advanced for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, and silver coin sales are almost double last week’s total of 335,000 ounces.

See also:

BullionVault:  Gold investment sentiment rises for first time since February; Silver – 3 new tech uses to grow 275% by 2018

Bloomberg/Dallas Morning News:  Gold seen reaching $1,400 by USA Gold as U.S. inflation quickens

David Stockman:  Market maven warns Fed’s 3rd bubble this century heading for 20% tumble

GATA/IRDFinancial Times repudiates explanation for removal of gold manipulation report; The CFTC’s Commitment Of Traders data is rigged after all

Zero Hedge:  4 million fewer jobs: How the BLS massively overestimated U.S. job creation

CNN/The InterceptNew leaker disclosing U.S. secrets, government concludes

Metals Nixed, but News is Mixed

Posted by on July 15th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsSlammedLower

Spot gold and silver dropped more than 2% on Monday, with one stated reason being an easing of problems in Portugal’s banking sector, which may still be far from solved. But arguably having little to do with Portugal, there was “massive selling in the futures market. Reportedly, 2300 futures contracts, with a notional value of $1.4 billion, were sold at the New York open,” according to USA Gold:  “We’ve seen such raids in the paper market in the past. Throwing this kind of volume at the market all at once is reflective of someone not interested in getting the best price, but rather someone looking to generate shock and awe.” But while gold was being shocked and awed to its worst day in 2014, U.S. Mint bullion coin sales jumped, and GLD, the major gold ETF, was said to have seen its largest inflow since August 2011.

See also:  

Ted Butler:  The silver conspiracy

Bloomberg:  Goldman stays gold bear as bullish wagers increase; Individuals pile into stocks as pros say bull is spent

Reuters:  Yellen says Fed easy money needed even after recovery – New Yorker

Business Insider/Zero HedgeNew Yorker article seen igniting CNBC shouter; Rick Santelli goes beserk

BullionStar.com:  Koos Jansen – For how long will people trust fiat money?

Metals Rangebound: Any Breakout In Sight?

Posted by on July 9th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GoldBreakout?

Spot gold and silver saw the slightest of gains on Tuesday while futures were slightly off in what Gold Forecaster‘s Julian Phillips brands a “strange” market, where gold demand is “steady and solid in a relatively thin market, but not swayed by speculators,” who, along with and dealers, “are trying to move gold around with the euro, which keeps going stronger as the dollar weakens.”  But, he added that gold “keeps drifting higher as U.S. investors are now net buyers of the SPDR gold ETF in the last three weeks.”

As for the prospect of gold drifting even higher, CNBC, under the headline “These 3 charts tell you to buy gold,” highlights a note from Sterne Agee.  The author contends that the investment advisory “remain new buyers and would be new buyers right here, in anticipation of the current ‘bearish-to-bullish’ reversal continuing and gaining urgency as new participants are drawn in.”  It goes on to predict that gold will rise to $1,500/oz, but with no timeline, before running into resistance….Read More >>>

See also:

Barron’s/Bloomberg:  Gold, silver – The speculators are back; Gold shines again as hedge funds boost wagers on advance

Expected ReturnsI’m back!; Do you remember? Why gold?

Eric Sprott:  The physical buyers will overwhelm the paper sellers

Mining.com/SilverSeek:  Reports- CME/Thomson Reuters to run the silver fix; Ted Butler – CME’s Comex- Why it’s corrupt

Zero Hedge:  Stock buyback shocker; Debt – Eight reasons why this time is different; Is the Fed going to attempt a controlled collapse?

Reuters/New York Sun:  Fed’s Yellen to deliver monetary policy report to Congress next week; Congress eyes rules for the Fed

Silver Takes Quarter; Gold Wins Half

Posted by on July 1st 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Iraq, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Timothy Massad, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverQuarterAfter spot gold and silver added a fraction of a percent on Monday, silver ended up 7% for the quarter, its highest gain in three quarters, reports Reuters, and gold gained about 3.5 percent on the quarter after a nearly 7 percent gain in the first quarter, making gold the best-performing asset in the first half of 2014.

Reuters attributes gold’s gains to tensions over Ukraine and Iraq, and going forward, geopolitical tensions are alsoGoldHalf seen as the “wild card” for gold and silver, according to one analyst quoted by MarketWatch.  He adds North Korea as a potential third hot spot, and says that “Any flare up in these areas could quickly lead to another round of ‘safe haven’ buying in the precious metals.”

See also:

BullionVault/Mining.com:  Gold & silver beat stocks, best first-half since 2011 after “surge in bullish hedge fund bets”

Mineweb:  Silver the star performer in recent precious metals rally; Silver – The irresistible force

Jesse’s Café Américain/Ted Butler:  Comex silver stockpiles at the end of 2Q 2014;  Comex – Why it’s corrupt

Financial Times/GATA:  Singapore seizes on soaring Asia gold demand; Koos Jansen – Chinese gold demand remains robust and in an uptrend

Telegraph/Peak Prosperity:  BIS – Ultra low interest rates could make global economy permanently unstable; Axel Merk – The Fed’s next move

MarketWatch:  Taper Time? Janet Yellen’s Georgetown neighbors complain about ‘doughnut bellies’ of security detail

Ted Butler: Current Silver Setup the ‘Best in History’

Posted by on June 28th 2014 in CFTC, Gold, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Timothy Massad, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverSetup

With gold and silver futures posting their longest run of weekly gains since January, MarketWatch‘s “Commodities Corner” column looks at “Why silver’s outperforming gold and isn’t done yet,” and Ted Butler declares that “there has rarely been a better time to buy and hold silver because the sharp price decline has created an undervaluation that I never expected.”

Describing the two categories of traders known as “raptors” and “technical funds,” Butler explains that “The raptors who are long have the technical funds who are short over a barrel. It’s only a matter of time until the raptors decide to ring the cash register by orchestrating higher silver prices. This will cause the technical funds to buy back their silver short position. Because the technical funds hold a record silver short position, this makes the current setup the best in history. Make no mistake, the technical funds must buy back, rather than deliver metal to close out their short position. As a result, there is now the largest amount of potential buying power in history. Silver should surprise to the upside at some point soon.”… Read More >>>

Metals Rebound on GDP Tank

Posted by on June 26th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GDPtank

Gold and silver pared losses on Wednesday to end slightly up after data showed that U.S. GDP for the first quarter fell 2.9%, and the dollar dropped with it.  USA Gold, describing what it calls “this stunning collapse in economic activity,” cites Jim Rickards’ “prescient assertion early in the new year that the Fed was tapering into weakness, and in doing so before achieving their own growth and inflation criteria. ‘The danger now is that they cause a recession,’ Rickards stated in a February interview. I wrote last week that gold’s gains back above the $1300 level significantly improved the technical picture and went a long way toward confirming the cycle lows at 1182.10/1179.83. The latest “In Gold We Trust” report from Incrementum AG of Lichtenstein [see below] seems to agree: “We are therefore convinced that the technical picture has been repaired and that a stable bottom has formed.”

See also:

Bloomberg/Zentrader:  Gold euphoria won’t last with Yellen’s rally fading; Few believe gold can shine

Jim Sinclair: 30 reasons the bear phase in gold ends this summer

SilverSeek/Mining.com:  Has key to silver ‘bet’ finally changed?; Is silver the cure for silver prices?

CDN/Reuters:  Germany’s missing gold; Singapore vie for Asia gold pricing alternative to London

Zero Hedge:  Chairman of China’s largest copper producer commits suicide by jumping from hotel

New York Times:  Barclays faces New York lawsuit over dark pool and high-frequency trading

Metals’ Specs Caught Short as Iraq Reignites

Posted by on June 13th 2014 in CFTC, Gold, Iraq, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

IraqReignites

Gold and silver futures gained about 1% and 2% respectively on Thursday, reports MarketWatch, with increased demand for gold attributed to growing unrest in Iraq and weakness in U.S. stocks. And with both metals logging multiple-session gains, the article quotes one analyst who references recent COT data showing “speculators shorting the metals, while commercials have gone in the opposite direction.”

He predicts that “If the rally continues, a lot of small traders will be caught on the wrong side of the precious metals trade and will be forced to cover their short positions — especially in silver. This could produce a furious short-covering rally and money will start to flow back into this sector.” Adding fuel to the fire, “Gold and silver shorts ignored Iraq’s Islamist threat nearly as badly as Baghdad,” according to BullionVault‘s Adrian Ash, who sees last week’s “extreme positioning … getting unwound fast, and there could be further to run yet if crude stays firm and equities soft.”

Yo-Ho, Silver?

Posted by on June 11th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverStillDeciding

With the silver price chart said to be at a “make or break level,” it’s also taking its good time to decide, according to an analysis at the Short Side of Long:  “Consider the fact that silver traded at around $19 in June 2013 and it also traded around $19 in December 2013. As I write this post, silver is trading at… yep you guessed it… $19 per ounce.”  It goes on to point out that “despite no change in the price, silver’s sentiment has either remained extremely negative by looking at certain indicators, or actually deteriorated even further by looking at others.”

The author writes of waiting for a resolution of the technical triangle in the above chart before pulling the trigger, and cautions that “just because every man and his dog is bearish on silver does not mean we cannot fall further from the current levels. However, if we do fall further, I think that the selling pressure and bearish energy is all but exhausted. Therefore, any further downside should be limited. Also, I honestly feel that this level of bearishness (gross short bets) isn’t going to be sustainable for a long time, so eventually one should expect a major short squeeze coming. In summary, I got my finger on the buy trigger… but I haven’t pressed the button yet.”

See also:

GoldSeek/MetalMiner:  Gold and silver gain almost 1%; Silver rises thanks to industrial purchasing

Zero Hedge:  Precious metals jump as China unwind fears spread

In Gold We Trust:  Chinese gold demand stable, Shanghai silver scarce

Reuters:  Deutsche Bank sets up bullion vault in London; Gold price benchmark open to manipulation – London Metal Exchange CEO

Gold Reporter: Iraqi gold reserves triple year-to-date

AFP/BBC:  Militants seize Iraq second city of Mosul, force 150,000 to flee

TIPSing Point: Falling Yields Seen Boosting Gold

Posted by on June 5th 2014 in China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

TIPSingPoint

In describing the thinking of many gold analysts, that the relationship between real long-term U.S. interest rates and the gold price is strongly negative, Mining.com explains that “The underlying reason for the relationship is that as yields rise, the opportunity costs of holding gold increases because the metal is not income producing. Higher rates also boost the value of the dollar which usually move in the opposite direction of the gold price.”

But, as illustrated by the above chart, “this inverse correlation … has broken down.” The 10-year TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities), “is currently at 0.32% (which is consistent with a gold price north of $1,400), down from 0.68% two months ago. It goes on to cite a research note from Capital Economics that sees this as bullish for gold:  “This decline at least partly reflects growing speculation that the neutral level for official interest rates in the longer term has fallen, which should reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.” And it concludes that “Unless there is a decisive move below $1,200 per ounce, which seems unlikely given the (rising) floor set by mining costs, we are therefore retaining our end-2014 forecast of $1,450.”

See also:

Coin News/Jesse’s Café Américain:  Precious metals change narrowly; Gold and silver charts – What a Draghi

SafeHaven:  Silver – still seeing the forest for the trees

Bloomberg/Seeking Alpha:  China mulls offshore yuan gold trade in free-trade zone; The demon gold bears are mistakenly overlooking

Business Insider/Mises.org:  The downward GDP revisions have begun; Why central bank stimulus cannot bring economic recovery

MarketWatch:  Half of Americans can’t afford their house; MacArthur Foundation survey- How Housing Matters

Bloomberg/Zero Hedge:  JPMorgan sees record $100 billion in loan funds: Repackaged junk as never smelled so sweet