Archive for the ‘JPMorgan’ Category

Metals Nixed, but News is Mixed

Posted by on July 15th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsSlammedLower

Spot gold and silver dropped more than 2% on Monday, with one stated reason being an easing of problems in Portugal’s banking sector, which may still be far from solved. But arguably having little to do with Portugal, there was “massive selling in the futures market. Reportedly, 2300 futures contracts, with a notional value of $1.4 billion, were sold at the New York open,” according to USA Gold:  “We’ve seen such raids in the paper market in the past. Throwing this kind of volume at the market all at once is reflective of someone not interested in getting the best price, but rather someone looking to generate shock and awe.” But while gold was being shocked and awed to its worst day in 2014, U.S. Mint bullion coin sales jumped, and GLD, the major gold ETF, was said to have seen its largest inflow since August 2011.

See also:  

Ted Butler:  The silver conspiracy

Bloomberg:  Goldman stays gold bear as bullish wagers increase; Individuals pile into stocks as pros say bull is spent

Reuters:  Yellen says Fed easy money needed even after recovery – New Yorker

Business Insider/Zero HedgeNew Yorker article seen igniting CNBC shouter; Rick Santelli goes beserk

BullionStar.com:  Koos Jansen – For how long will people trust fiat money?

Metals Rangebound: Any Breakout In Sight?

Posted by on July 9th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GoldBreakout?

Spot gold and silver saw the slightest of gains on Tuesday while futures were slightly off in what Gold Forecaster‘s Julian Phillips brands a “strange” market, where gold demand is “steady and solid in a relatively thin market, but not swayed by speculators,” who, along with and dealers, “are trying to move gold around with the euro, which keeps going stronger as the dollar weakens.”  But, he added that gold “keeps drifting higher as U.S. investors are now net buyers of the SPDR gold ETF in the last three weeks.”

As for the prospect of gold drifting even higher, CNBC, under the headline “These 3 charts tell you to buy gold,” highlights a note from Sterne Agee.  The author contends that the investment advisory “remain new buyers and would be new buyers right here, in anticipation of the current ‘bearish-to-bullish’ reversal continuing and gaining urgency as new participants are drawn in.”  It goes on to predict that gold will rise to $1,500/oz, but with no timeline, before running into resistance….Read More >>>

See also:

Barron’s/Bloomberg:  Gold, silver – The speculators are back; Gold shines again as hedge funds boost wagers on advance

Expected ReturnsI’m back!; Do you remember? Why gold?

Eric Sprott:  The physical buyers will overwhelm the paper sellers

Mining.com/SilverSeek:  Reports- CME/Thomson Reuters to run the silver fix; Ted Butler – CME’s Comex- Why it’s corrupt

Zero Hedge:  Stock buyback shocker; Debt – Eight reasons why this time is different; Is the Fed going to attempt a controlled collapse?

Reuters/New York Sun:  Fed’s Yellen to deliver monetary policy report to Congress next week; Congress eyes rules for the Fed

Silver Takes Quarter; Gold Wins Half

Posted by on July 1st 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Iraq, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Timothy Massad, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverQuarterAfter spot gold and silver added a fraction of a percent on Monday, silver ended up 7% for the quarter, its highest gain in three quarters, reports Reuters, and gold gained about 3.5 percent on the quarter after a nearly 7 percent gain in the first quarter, making gold the best-performing asset in the first half of 2014.

Reuters attributes gold’s gains to tensions over Ukraine and Iraq, and going forward, geopolitical tensions are alsoGoldHalf seen as the “wild card” for gold and silver, according to one analyst quoted by MarketWatch.  He adds North Korea as a potential third hot spot, and says that “Any flare up in these areas could quickly lead to another round of ‘safe haven’ buying in the precious metals.”

See also:

BullionVault/Mining.com:  Gold & silver beat stocks, best first-half since 2011 after “surge in bullish hedge fund bets”

Mineweb:  Silver the star performer in recent precious metals rally; Silver – The irresistible force

Jesse’s Café Américain/Ted Butler:  Comex silver stockpiles at the end of 2Q 2014;  Comex – Why it’s corrupt

Financial Times/GATA:  Singapore seizes on soaring Asia gold demand; Koos Jansen – Chinese gold demand remains robust and in an uptrend

Telegraph/Peak Prosperity:  BIS – Ultra low interest rates could make global economy permanently unstable; Axel Merk – The Fed’s next move

MarketWatch:  Taper Time? Janet Yellen’s Georgetown neighbors complain about ‘doughnut bellies’ of security detail

Ted Butler: Current Silver Setup the ‘Best in History’

Posted by on June 28th 2014 in CFTC, Gold, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Timothy Massad, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverSetup

With gold and silver futures posting their longest run of weekly gains since January, MarketWatch‘s “Commodities Corner” column looks at “Why silver’s outperforming gold and isn’t done yet,” and Ted Butler declares that “there has rarely been a better time to buy and hold silver because the sharp price decline has created an undervaluation that I never expected.”

Describing the two categories of traders known as “raptors” and “technical funds,” Butler explains that “The raptors who are long have the technical funds who are short over a barrel. It’s only a matter of time until the raptors decide to ring the cash register by orchestrating higher silver prices. This will cause the technical funds to buy back their silver short position. Because the technical funds hold a record silver short position, this makes the current setup the best in history. Make no mistake, the technical funds must buy back, rather than deliver metal to close out their short position. As a result, there is now the largest amount of potential buying power in history. Silver should surprise to the upside at some point soon.”… Read More >>>

Metals Rebound on GDP Tank

Posted by on June 26th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GDPtank

Gold and silver pared losses on Wednesday to end slightly up after data showed that U.S. GDP for the first quarter fell 2.9%, and the dollar dropped with it.  USA Gold, describing what it calls “this stunning collapse in economic activity,” cites Jim Rickards’ “prescient assertion early in the new year that the Fed was tapering into weakness, and in doing so before achieving their own growth and inflation criteria. ‘The danger now is that they cause a recession,’ Rickards stated in a February interview. I wrote last week that gold’s gains back above the $1300 level significantly improved the technical picture and went a long way toward confirming the cycle lows at 1182.10/1179.83. The latest “In Gold We Trust” report from Incrementum AG of Lichtenstein [see below] seems to agree: “We are therefore convinced that the technical picture has been repaired and that a stable bottom has formed.”

See also:

Bloomberg/Zentrader:  Gold euphoria won’t last with Yellen’s rally fading; Few believe gold can shine

Jim Sinclair: 30 reasons the bear phase in gold ends this summer

SilverSeek/Mining.com:  Has key to silver ‘bet’ finally changed?; Is silver the cure for silver prices?

CDN/Reuters:  Germany’s missing gold; Singapore vie for Asia gold pricing alternative to London

Zero Hedge:  Chairman of China’s largest copper producer commits suicide by jumping from hotel

New York Times:  Barclays faces New York lawsuit over dark pool and high-frequency trading

Metals’ Specs Caught Short as Iraq Reignites

Posted by on June 13th 2014 in CFTC, Gold, Iraq, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

IraqReignites

Gold and silver futures gained about 1% and 2% respectively on Thursday, reports MarketWatch, with increased demand for gold attributed to growing unrest in Iraq and weakness in U.S. stocks. And with both metals logging multiple-session gains, the article quotes one analyst who references recent COT data showing “speculators shorting the metals, while commercials have gone in the opposite direction.”

He predicts that “If the rally continues, a lot of small traders will be caught on the wrong side of the precious metals trade and will be forced to cover their short positions — especially in silver. This could produce a furious short-covering rally and money will start to flow back into this sector.” Adding fuel to the fire, “Gold and silver shorts ignored Iraq’s Islamist threat nearly as badly as Baghdad,” according to BullionVault‘s Adrian Ash, who sees last week’s “extreme positioning … getting unwound fast, and there could be further to run yet if crude stays firm and equities soft.”

Yo-Ho, Silver?

Posted by on June 11th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverStillDeciding

With the silver price chart said to be at a “make or break level,” it’s also taking its good time to decide, according to an analysis at the Short Side of Long:  “Consider the fact that silver traded at around $19 in June 2013 and it also traded around $19 in December 2013. As I write this post, silver is trading at… yep you guessed it… $19 per ounce.”  It goes on to point out that “despite no change in the price, silver’s sentiment has either remained extremely negative by looking at certain indicators, or actually deteriorated even further by looking at others.”

The author writes of waiting for a resolution of the technical triangle in the above chart before pulling the trigger, and cautions that “just because every man and his dog is bearish on silver does not mean we cannot fall further from the current levels. However, if we do fall further, I think that the selling pressure and bearish energy is all but exhausted. Therefore, any further downside should be limited. Also, I honestly feel that this level of bearishness (gross short bets) isn’t going to be sustainable for a long time, so eventually one should expect a major short squeeze coming. In summary, I got my finger on the buy trigger… but I haven’t pressed the button yet.”

See also:

GoldSeek/MetalMiner:  Gold and silver gain almost 1%; Silver rises thanks to industrial purchasing

Zero Hedge:  Precious metals jump as China unwind fears spread

In Gold We Trust:  Chinese gold demand stable, Shanghai silver scarce

Reuters:  Deutsche Bank sets up bullion vault in London; Gold price benchmark open to manipulation – London Metal Exchange CEO

Gold Reporter: Iraqi gold reserves triple year-to-date

AFP/BBC:  Militants seize Iraq second city of Mosul, force 150,000 to flee

TIPSing Point: Falling Yields Seen Boosting Gold

Posted by on June 5th 2014 in China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

TIPSingPoint

In describing the thinking of many gold analysts, that the relationship between real long-term U.S. interest rates and the gold price is strongly negative, Mining.com explains that “The underlying reason for the relationship is that as yields rise, the opportunity costs of holding gold increases because the metal is not income producing. Higher rates also boost the value of the dollar which usually move in the opposite direction of the gold price.”

But, as illustrated by the above chart, “this inverse correlation … has broken down.” The 10-year TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities), “is currently at 0.32% (which is consistent with a gold price north of $1,400), down from 0.68% two months ago. It goes on to cite a research note from Capital Economics that sees this as bullish for gold:  “This decline at least partly reflects growing speculation that the neutral level for official interest rates in the longer term has fallen, which should reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold.” And it concludes that “Unless there is a decisive move below $1,200 per ounce, which seems unlikely given the (rising) floor set by mining costs, we are therefore retaining our end-2014 forecast of $1,450.”

See also:

Coin News/Jesse’s Café Américain:  Precious metals change narrowly; Gold and silver charts – What a Draghi

SafeHaven:  Silver – still seeing the forest for the trees

Bloomberg/Seeking Alpha:  China mulls offshore yuan gold trade in free-trade zone; The demon gold bears are mistakenly overlooking

Business Insider/Mises.org:  The downward GDP revisions have begun; Why central bank stimulus cannot bring economic recovery

MarketWatch:  Half of Americans can’t afford their house; MacArthur Foundation survey- How Housing Matters

Bloomberg/Zero Hedge:  JPMorgan sees record $100 billion in loan funds: Repackaged junk as never smelled so sweet

Silver’s Fortunes Tied to Copper

Posted by on May 14th 2014 in Bart Chilton, CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverCopperBFFs

With gold and silver ending basically flat on Tuesday, and copper falling after factory production in China was up slightly less in April than analysts had predicted, Dan Norcini writes of “keeping a close eye on the chart of this key metal to gauge how investors/traders are sizing up the overall global economy,” and advises that “silver bulls should be hoping that copper remains firm…. If they want silver higher, then they need to cheer for improving economic news, especially any sort of news that would indicate the Velocity of Money might be starting to pick up. In other words, they should be cheering for growth and inflation that tends to accompany it. Silver needs inflation and solid economic growth to move higher – Period! It will not thrive if the equity markets crater and traders begin to fear deflation and or slowing growth.”

See also:

WSJ:  China slows down – economists react; Investors begin to question rate of global growth

In Gold We Trust:  China’s tentacles reaching all over the globe

GoldSeek:  The big picture in precious metals; An open letter to the good people of Switzerland

SafeHaven/SilverSeek: David Morgan – Dissecting silver lies and liars; Who should GAO believe – Ted Butler or Bart Chilton?

Wall Street on Parade: The HFT lawsuit that has Wall Street running scared

Frontline:  “United States of Secrets“; A review, and an interview with the producer & whistleblowers

Gold Hit by Dollar Bounce; Bears Still in Control?

Posted by on May 9th 2014 in CFTC, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

DollarBearsAfter ECB head Mario Draghi hinted at fresh stimulus measures that caused the euro to fall from more than two-year highs against the U.S. dollar, gold “saw some increased selling pressure surface,” according to one analyst cited by Coin News.  But he added that the dollar “continues in a near-term price downtrend on the daily chart. The dollar bears are still in technical control, which is a bullish underlying factor for most of the raw commodities, including precious metals.”

But with spot gold and silver ending at $1,290 and $19.15 respectively on Thursday, Jesse’s Café Américain finds that “The capping of gold and silver at 1300 and 20 is hard to miss. Someone with deep pockets and a lot of power and regulatory clout seems interested in discouraging any precious metals rally and breakout.”

See also:

Ted Butler:  A real surprise – GAO responds to allegations of silver manipulation

Zero Hedge: Spot the “unrigged” difference; The Fed (and friends) $10 trillion visible hand

Reuters:  Yellen – Could take 5-8 years to shrink Fed portfolio

Steve St. Angelo:  The one silver factor the fiat monetary authorities are worried about; Canadian silver production down significantly

Got Gold Report/Mineweb:  Gold trade nearly net long Comex gold futures; World top 10 gold producers – countries and companies

NY Times/Bloomberg:  Separatists defy Kiev and Putin on referendum; Putin to showcase military as Russia drill fuels Ukraine tension

As New Sanctions Drop, So Do Metals

Posted by on April 29th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsDropWithNewSanctions

Silver and gold were off about a half a percent on Monday, reports Reuters, “despite heightened geopolitical tensions over the situation in Ukraine.” The article attributes Monday’s drop to data showing that pending home sales rose in March for the the first time in nine months, but they’re still off significantly from a year ago.

And while newly-imposed sanctions on Russia by the U.S. and the European Union failed to boost gold, GoldCore cites an RBC analyst, who has been “quite bearish on gold in recent years,” as predicting that sanctions and a deepening of the Ukrainian crisis could have a “massively bullish impact on gold prices.” And Bloomberg quotes asset manager Adrian Day as saying, “You’re going to get a lot of backwards and forwards in gold. The gold situation has been compounded by Ukraine. I’m very bullish on gold, but it’s going to be a trade for the patient.”

See also:

USA Today/Time:  Russia sanctions not tough enough — yet, analysts say; U.S. sanctions push Putin toward his dream of a new financial system

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Gold and silver may be running quite a gauntlet this week

Ted Butler:  The world’s most undervalued asset

Mineweb/Frank Holmes:  Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong jump 27% in Q1; China holds the keys to the gold market

Bullion Bulls CanadaThe secret silver stockpile

GoldSwitzerland:  Matterhorn Interview – Gold price rigging allows continuation of flawed policies

Metals Ride Home Sales Slide Higher

Posted by on April 24th 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

NewHomeSalesSlideBoostsMetals,jpg

Gold and silver futures inched up a fraction of a percent on Wednesday with gold said to be “getting some bids after the disappointing home-sales data,” which showed that new home sales dropped 14.5% from February to March, hitting their lowest level since last July.  “The sector’s weakness could help convince the Federal Reserve to keep benchmark interest rates near zero long after it ends a bond-buying stimulus program later this year,” reports Reuters.  Also, a ratcheting up of tension over Ukraine was seen supporting gold.

But, lamenting that gold and silver “continued to be capped just below 1300 and 20 respectively” on Wednesday, a post at Jesse’s Café Américain notes that “Someone asked me today how it was that the prices could be ‘capped’ so effectively given the continuing pressure on physical supply by buyers from Asia.” Explaining that “The paper markets are where the price is set, and they have only tenuous connections to fundamentals like supply and demand for real products,” he predicts that eventually “the paper and physical will have to reacquaint themselves and converge, and I suspect that will be a notable reunion indeed.”

See also:

Got Gold Report/KWN: Elephant tracks signal upward reversal in gold; Grant Williams – West hemorrhaging gold, but here’s its true Achilles’ heel

CNBC:  Playing gold?  Keep an eye on silver

Mineweb: Chorus to lower gold curbs grows louder in India; So the funds sell gold – Look beyond for demand signals

King One Eye:  Two charts showing inflation heating up

BBC:  Special Putin silver coins mark Crimea annexation