Archive for the ‘Quants’ Category

Broker: Gold as Safe Haven Now ‘More than Ever’

Posted by on April 15th 2014 in CFTC, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Monetary Policy, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SafetyFirst

As stocks snapped back on Monday, gold and silver added a fraction of a percent, with gold hitting a three-week high, reports Reuters. It cites an increase in gold’s safe-haven appeal, which it attributes to “growing violence between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian government forces, and news that a Russian fighter aircraft made repeated low-altitude, close-range passes near a U.S. ship in the Black Sea over the weekend.” The article also quotes a commodities broker who advises that “the need to have some gold in investment portfolios for safety now is more than ever. A lot of people don’t necessarily trust the stock market at the moment.”

See also:

USA Gold:  Gold gains on geopolitical tensions, threats of ECB policy reaction to strong euro

Financial Times/Wall Street Journal:  ECB policymakers plot QE road map; Central bankers to world – Take our currencies, please

SilverSeek/GATASilver’s ultimate rally – When paper assets collapse; Silver is in backwardation and Comex prices are misleading, James Turk tells KWN

Bloomberg:  CME Group sued on claims high-frequency traders bought access

LA Times/Pulitzer.orgWashington Post, Guardian win Pulitzers for NSA-spying revelations; Complete list of winners, with links to the original articles

Gold and Silver Rally on ‘Dovish’ Fed

Posted by on April 10th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsRallyOnDovishFed

Gold and silver finished mixed on Wednesday, but both rallied along with stocks — see “Fed Cat Bounce” — after minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting showed that members seemed less inclined to raise interest rates than previously thought. “The Fed sounds less hawkish than it did last month, which is good for gold,” according to an investment strategist quoted by Bloomberg, who added that the market is nonetheless “confused because there are so many contradicting signals from the Fed.”

Or, as Dan Norcini, under the headline “Dovish Fed sinks US Dollar” describes it:  “Watching them swing from hawkish to dovish in such a short interval makes me understand why our markets are so screwed up. The Fed is consistently changing their assessment of things. That would be just fine and dandy were not the U.S. financial markets addicted to easy money and so utterly dependent on these jokers for their latest fix.”

See also:

Telegraph/Peak Prosperity: China ‘has more gold than official figures show’; China’s demand for gold has trapped the West’s central banks

BullionVault/SilverSeek:  Buying goldandsilver yet?; Real U.S. silver money would consume nearly half of world’s mine supply

J.S. Kim/Zero Hedge:  Bankers are using HFT algos to manipulate gold and silver prices; Put this guy in charge of the SEC

Wall Street on Parade/John Crudele:  Goldman Sachs drops a bombshell on Wall Street: Goldman keeps its “Flash Boys” under wraps

Bloomberg: Global growth threatened in $693 trillion derivatives review

Reuters/AP:  Separatists in east Ukraine call on Putin for help, Kiev warns of force; NATO’s military head – U.S. troops may be sent to Eastern Europe

Metals Drop on Euro Weakness vs. USD

Posted by on April 4th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, GATA, General Economy, Gold, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GoldEuroDollar

In advance of Friday’s jobs report, spot gold and silver fell 0.8% and 0.5% respectively on Thursday, with the drop attributed to the dollar gaining against the euro, which fell 1% as ECB head Mario Draghi spoke at a press conference, in which he said “There was a discussion about QE, it wasn’t neglected.” But USA Gold’s market report points out that “While the dollar firmed intraday, gold did as well, giving a very preliminary indication that a launching of ECB asset purchases may ultimately supplant Fed tapering as the monetary policy story of the year…. the ECB is prepared to contort itself in whatever way deemed necessary to justify such purchases. It is also arguably a testament to the dire nature of Europe’s predicament.”

See also:

Daily Reckoning/Gold Silver WorldsExcess liquidity keeps the global economy afloat; If reflation is here, then gold is your ultimate hedge

Bullion Bulls Canada:  Is there any gold left for central banks to buy?

Coin Update/Coin News:  American Silver Eagle bullion sales jump in March, top 5.3 million

GATAReuters interviews Jim Rickards about gold’s ascent after ‘The Death of Money’; HFT controversy may lead to short squeeze in gold, Tocqueville’s John Hathaway tells KWN

Reuters/Of Two Minds:  U.S. futures regulator CFTC probing speed traders; It’s not just the stock market that’s rigged: the entire status quo is rigged

Gold and Silver Flip AM Script

Posted by on April 3rd 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Media, Monetary Policy, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsFlipMorningScript

On Wednesday, silver futures gained 1.8% to finish above $20 an ounce for the first time since March 24, and gold futures added 0.8%.  Both went vertical at the open, and as Zero Hedge noted:  “Instead of the smack-down that we have seen around the 8 a.m. ET time each of the last 10 days, today gold and silver are spiking. It is unclear what the catalyst is – just as it is never clear what the catalyst for the monkey-hammerings are – but the timing with Putin’s retaliation threats (specifically against a major bank with a mysteriously active gold vault) suggest some causation.”

See also:

TF Metals Report/IRD:  Putin plays a golden card; The world slowly waves “good-bye” to the petrodollar

Wall St. Cheat Sheet/InvezzHere’s why you should buy silver; Commerzbank – Silver price decline may just be corrective

Peter Schiff/Bill Bonner:  The stealth rally – Gold under the radar;   America’s credit supercycle: The end is near

Reuters:  Bullion market eyes e-platform to revamp London gold benchmark

Bloomberg/Barron’s: Katsuyama, Narang, Lewis debate speed trading; Hedge funds are the real losers from high-speed trading

Mike Shedlock:  Supreme Court removes campaign caps; Worst congress money can bribe; Expect more divisive politics

 

Analyts Diff’r on Gold ‘Sentiment’

Posted by on April 2nd 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Media, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

AnalystsDiff'rOnGold

With gold and silver futures both slipping 0.3% on Tuesday, as stocks rose on what was described as “a record Fed-assisted window dressing operation,” Bloomberg cites an HSBC note concluding that the “near-term sentiment for gold appears negative,” with its recent decline “largely explained by the combination of receding geopolitical tensions and the Fed’s guidance for higher interest rates.” But according to two precious-metals strategists at UBS, gold’s “correction has been relatively orderly and interest to buy the dip is evident. This reflects the underlying improvement in sentiment towards gold – investors are acknowledging the value of holding gold to diversify portfolios and insure against tail risks and are therefore looking for opportunities to get in at better levels.”

See also:

321goldGold versus Silver

CNBC/Mineweb:  Why gold bears are watching U.S. payrolls; Analyst – Recent gold price decline surprising

John Rubino/Bloomberg:  Debt makes you dumb, Japanese edition; Yellen’s real-life examples of unemployed omit criminal records

New York/Zero Hedge9 gripes from a leading high-frequency trader about “Flash Boys“; HFT debate devolves into epic screamfest in milliseconds

Michael Lewis interviewed on “Fresh Air” and CNBC

Metals Pare Q1 Gains, but Trump Stocks

Posted by on April 1st 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsQ12014

After falling a fraction of a percent on Monday, gold and silver prices ended down about 3% and 7% respectively for March, but logged gains of 6.8% and 2% for the quarter. Reuters reports that “Gold largely ignored Yellen’s strong defense of U.S. easy-money policies on Monday, when she said the Fed’s ‘extraordinary’ commitment to boosting the economy will be needed for some time to come.” And MarketWatch cites a Naxis Metals Review report predicting a period of consolidation for gold and silver, “during which costs of production are likely to become a more important determinant of prices than the strength of demand,” but, “as these rising costs of production catch up with the (falling) price of gold and silver, so prices will form a base and eventually begin moving higher once more.”

See also:

Mineweb/In Gold We Trust:  Is Chinese gold demand really falling? Probably not; West to East gold exodus in full swing

Jesse’s Café Américain/SafeHaven:  Gold and silver charts – JPM throws down 229,400 ounces of gold to meet deliveries; A golden opportunity coming in silver

Commodity Trade Mantra:  The accidental end to silver price manipulation; Gold trading market is not “fixed” – it’s rigged

Mike Shedlock/Barry Ritholtz:  High frequency trading hits “60 Minutes” scrutiny – Trading or skimming?; High frequency trading is legalized theft

New York TimesReview – “Flash Boys” is “guaranteed to make blood boil”; Read an adaptation from the book

Gold Surprises; Michael Lewis Takes On HFTs

Posted by on March 29th 2014 in Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Media, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

FlashBoys

Although gold and silver ended down 3% and 2.5% on the week after logging a slight gain on Friday, gold beating U.S. stocks was seen as one of “The Top 10 Surprises of the First Quarter.”  And before spot gold closed at $1,294 on Friday, one analyst, looking ahead to next week, told Reuters that “If we don’t close below $1,290 today, we could see some consolidation around these levels ahead of the ECB on Thursday and U.S. nonfarm payrolls on Friday.”

And as it’s argued that last April’s gold smash was more about high-frequency trading, than say, garden variety market manipulation, Michael Lewis takes aim at the former in his new book, “Flash Boys,” which will be published on Monday. Lewis will be interviewed on “60 Minutes” this Sunday, and CNBC has some excerpts from the book, in which Lewis likens HFT’s to card counters in casinos, who only play when they have an edge:  “That’s why they were able to trade for five years without losing money on a single day.”

Less is More

Posted by on March 27th 2014 in Federal Reserve, General Economy, Monetary Policy, Quants, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

LessIsMore

In presenting the above stunner, Zero Hedge observes that “The economic growth expectations for the world in 2014 just plunged to fresh lows at a mere 2.78% – that is 15% ‘less’ growth than was expected a year ago. The world’s equity markets are up 25% ‘more’ than at the start of 2013. Thus, our dysfunctional dystopian world where ‘less’ economic growth is ‘more’ wealth-creating. Long live the central bank utopia…”

Hot Money Moves In, and Out, of Gold

Posted by on March 25th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

TheOldInOut-HotMoneyAndGold

Gold and silver futures ended off 1.9% and 1.2% on Monday, with gold’s fall attributed to the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar. In addition, MarketWatch cites a note from Commerzbank’s analysts saying that the drop was “due no doubt to further profit-taking after net long positions in gold were increased for the sixth week running in the week to 18 March.  At 121,100 contracts, they are currently at their highest level since the end of November 2012,” based on last Friday’s COT report.

But according to Dan Norcini, “Nearly all of those new longs were immediately under water as soon as the FOMC issued its statement last week. That and the fact that WWIII did not break out, as many of the perma gold bugs were predicting, was enough to turn the momentum back and that did it for the momentum-based funds. They are now selling.” And Bullion Vault‘s Adrian Ash adds:  “Buying gold we think is a smart idea. Chasing the price up…and then down…with gold futures and options is less clever. But it remains an ever-popular way of losing money for aggressive hedge funds and their formerly wealthy clients.”

See also:

ForexLive/Mineweb:  Will a golden cross save gold?; Gold uptrend to resume, silver ‘to rise faster’

Seeking Alpha:  Gold and silver could be in trouble

Bloomberg:  Silver vault for 600 tons starting in Singapore on demand

Zero HedgeMessage to the Fed - Here are a few things that you can’t do; In a world artificially priced to perfection, the imperfections appear

In Gold We Trust: Interview with Jim Rickards about his new book, “The Death Of Money

Wall Street on Parade:  Document – JPMorgan Chase bets $10.4 billion on the early death of workers

FOMC Meets Spell Weak Weeks for Gold

Posted by on March 21st 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

FOMCweeksGold

Zero Hedge:  “What is more confidence-inspiring in the Fed’s ability to manage the world and the continued dominance of the U.S. dollar as global reserve currency than a falling gold price… and when better to show that than FOMC meeting weeks… welcome to the centrally-planned world where the announcement of ongoing trillions in fiat dilution constantly crushes the price of undilutable money.”

The above chart comes courtesy of Meridian Macro. Click on the “Gold & Silver Report (weekly)” button on the charts page for a free pdf sample of their March 14 offering.

See also:

Jim Rickards: Fed does not want ‘disorderly’ rise in gold prices

Reuters/MarketWatch:  Gold flat on Fed plans, easing Ukraine tensions; Gold, silver settle at lowest levels month to date

Dan Norcini:  Easing Ukranian tensions, hawkish Fed, undercut gold

STA Wealth Management:  What history says about Fed rate hikes

Mineweb:  Yellen knocks gold. Will Putin drive it back up again?; Silver imports soar 180% in India

Reuters/Ted Butler:  CME Group to launch gold, silver copper weekly options in April; The COMEX has developed into a ‘bucket shop‘ comprised of speculators

GoldSwitzerland:  Koos Jansen – China’s gold policy is one of the world’s most important developments

China’s 2013 Gold Buy Tops 1,000 Tonnes; ‘Not Coming Back’

Posted by on February 11th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MoyChinaGold

China’s 2013 gold consumption topped 1,000 tonnes for the first time, reports Reuters, according to an announcement on the China Gold Association’s Web site, that consumption jumped 41 percent last year to 1,176 tonnes. That’s similar to the figures reported in late-January for China’s 2013 imports through Hong Kong.  The Reuters article also points out that not only has the surge in demand “helped China become the No. 1 gold consumer,” but that the numbers “do not include demand from the central bank, whose gold reserves stand at 33.89 million ounces (1,054 tonnes), unchanged since April 2009, according to the latest figures on the central bank’s website.”

And in the above video, Morgan Gold’s chief strategist, Ed Moy, told Bloomberg‘s “Bottom Line” on Monday that “When you look at gold, there’s two separate pieces. One is how the West looks at gold, and they’ve been investing in a lot of electronic derivatives and proxies for gold. Whereas the East has been buying a lot of physical gold. That demand has actually gone up. China in 2013 looks like they bought 1,000 tonnes, making them the number one buyer of gold in the world.”  Asked if he’s concerned about a possible gold shortage, Moy says, “Absolutely.”  He reasons that since Eastern investors are “hoarders” who “aren’t in it for the quick pop, like Western investors are…. when there’s a need here in the West, there’s gonna be a shortage because all that gold’s not coming back from East to West.”

See also:

Reuters: Gold rises 0.6% ahead of Tuesday’s testimony from Fed Chief Yellen; silver adds 0.3%

MarketWatch:  Gold and silver at highest closes since mid-November & mid-January

Tim Iacono:  U.S. investors buy early during this gold market rebound

Gold Scents:  The great inflation of 2014

In Gold We Trust:  Will this be a new world reserve currency?

The Atlantic:  High-speed trading isn’t about efficiency—it’s about cheating

Chinese Imports Top 1,000 Tonnes … and Then Some

Posted by on January 28th 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

China1000Imports

Comex gold and silver futures ended mixed on Monday with silver up 0.1% and  gold off 0.1%, reports MarketWatch, quoting one analyst as observing that “gold futures did catch a bid off the lows of the day in an inverse reaction to the stock market … as the primary driver of markets remains emerging market concerns,” and quoting another as saying that recent gold moves offer “encouraging early signs that the lows of $1,180 in June 2013 and $1,182 earlier this month are a double bottom.”

And according to a Bloomberg report, gold shipments from Hong Kong to China totaled a record 1,109 tonnes in 2013, a 33% increase over 2012.  Addressing the minor discrepancy between that figure and Reuters‘ tally of 1,158 tonnes, despite the stats being received from the same source, Mineweb‘s Lawrence Williams also points out that China “imports gold through other land, sea and air border points, which are not officially quantified by the Chinese, and we suspect total imports may well have been in excess of 2,000 tonnes for the year.” He estimates that with what China mines and smelts, the country’s total gold consumption is north of 2,400 tonnes, “representing around 85% of last year’s global mined gold output…”

See also:

Bloomberg:  Gold flows east as bars recast for Chinese defying slump; Gold mint runs overtime to meet world coin demand

Gold Silver Worlds/ETF Trends: Gold price exploding in emerging markets; Gold ETF flows reveal speculators have had enough

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Gold and silver charts – FOMC week shenanigans

Business Insider:  Three reasons why the debt ceiling could become a nightmare again

Reuters:  Emerging markets rout a reality check for Davos elite

Seattle Times/Zero Hedge:  VC legend Tom Perkins compares anti-rich protesters to Nazis; Perkins regrets Holocaust comments