Archive for the ‘Quants’ Category

Swiss Gold Vote Coverage Ramps Up

Posted by on November 26th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Media, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

ClockIsTicking

As the non-financial mainstream media begin focusing on Sunday’s Swiss gold referendum, USA Today reports a Bank of America prediction that “the price of gold could jump to more than $1,350 an ounce — an increase of 18%,” if the “yes” vote prevails. And a Guardian article, headlined “Fears that ‘dangerous’ Switzerland referendum could spark gold rush,” refers to a quote by the chairman of the Swiss National Bank, who said during a ‘sermon’ he delivered at a Swiss church, “The initiative is dangerous because it would weaken the SNB.”

But the lion’s share of the Guardian‘s quotes come from precious metals analyst and blogger Koos Jansen, who calls the Swiss initiative “merely part of a increasing global scramble towards gold and away from the endless printing of money,” adding that “While those behind the Swiss initiative have often been portrayed as crazy, they’re merely acting out of fear that their central bank is losing control of its monetary policy, and of the Swiss franc being sucked into this currency war and losing its value.”

SwissGoldCoverageRampsUp

Coin News/SilverSeek:  Precious metals rise as dollar dips, U.S. coin sales gain; Silver – what COT analysis tells us

Gold Silver Worlds:  Algos gone wild?  Gold price went ballistic to $1,450 in less than 20 minutes

Bloomberg/Mineweb:  China’s gold imports rise for a third month on jewelry sales; China 2014 gold demand heading for 2,100 tonnes

SafeHaven/Financial Post  Can gold extend its rally?; 6 reasons to be bullish on gold

Bloomberg:  Platinum & Pallidum – HSBC, Goldman rigged metals’ prices for years, suit says

GATA/WSOP: U.S. Senate report shows how easily banks can rig gold, copper, and other markets; Scale of Wall Street’s commodity holdings are “unprecedented in U.S. history

Metals Seen Riding ‘Wave’ Higher

Posted by on November 21st 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

AnalystsSeeMetalsRidingWaveHigher

In a Mineweb article published earlier this week, by Lawrence Williams and headlined “Elliott Wave analyst sees big gold and silver price surge ahead,” Williams reference’s Wikipedia’s definition of Elliott Wave as “a form of technical analysis that some traders use to analyze financial market cycles and forecast market trends by identifying extremes in investor psychology, highs and lows in prices, and other collective factors.”

In addition to the analyst cited by Mineweb, Peter Goodburn, another prominent Elliott Wave adherent is Avi Gilburt, whose articles are regularly published on Seeking Alpha.

Gilburt, who is more an analyst of, than advocate for precious metals, takes up their cause in his latest missive. “I do not often write about the metals on MarketWatch,” he begins, “but have seen too many bearish articles calling for the death to the metals, so I felt compelled to speak up. While many are now saying it is time to sell metals, I will have to disagree. The time to sell your metals was several years ago. Now is the time to start looking to buy them back.”

See also:

Reuters/Coin News: Spot gold rises as price drop tempts physical buyers; Gold futures dip for second day, U.S. Mint sales rise

Bloomberg: Gold heading for longest stretch of weekly increases since July

Sharelynx/Contra Corner: : Chart – Russia adds another 600,000 ozs of gold to its reserves in October; As “sanctions war” heats up, will Putin play his ‘gold card’?

Reuters: Unusual gold moves in Asian hours puzzle jittery traders

Barron’s/MarketWatch: Jeremy Grantham – S&P 500 could gain another 10% before “crashing as it always does“; Man who called last stock crash — Peter Schiff — is already blaming the Fed for the next

The Real News/Time: The power to create money in the hands of the banks; Study suggests banking industry breeds dishonesty

Silver Bears Melting Away? Swap Gold for Silver?

Posted by on November 13th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, General Economy, Gold, India, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | 1 comment

SilverBearsMeltingAwayAs it’s argued that the silver bears are running out of steam, or already have, but with the gold/silver ratio still above 74 as of Wednesday, Numismaster‘s Patrick Heller raises the prospect of swapping your gold for silver. He points out that the ratio “has been in the 50s much of the time over the past few years,” and he expects “a long-term equilibrium to hit somewhere around 35:1 to 40:1 between the two metals.” That said, Heller presents a number of well thought-out factors to consider, and comes down on the side of “a definite maybe,” depending on the circumstances of the trade and your current holdings. And he concludes by emphasizing that the swapping question “is different than asking if one should own any precious metals at all. A decision to own physical gold or silver is what I think of as buying insurance against the risk of calamities with paper assets such as stocks, bonds and currencies.”

See also:

SilverSeek: Gold and silver end slightly lower; Gold loses luster as retail investors look to silver

Bloomberg/GATA/Jesse’s Café Américain:  Six banks to pay $4.3 billion in first wave of currency-rigging penalties

Reuters/Arabian Money:  Swiss regulator flags attempt to manipulate bullion benchmarks; UBS fined for silver price manipulation, so this is now a matter of fact not speculation

BullionVault/Bullion DeskGood news for gold bulls from the LBMA’s near bears; Fragmentation of precious metal markets could lead to some headaches

Bloomberg/WSJ:  Swiss franc cap tested as gold bugs push referendum; Swissie close to crunch point in runup to gold referendum

Resource Investor/Mineweb:  India’s gold import bill triples to $3.5 billion in October; Scottia-Mocatta – India gold imports to rise into 2015

Sorry, For the Moment

Posted by on November 8th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Gold, JPMorgan, Media, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

By James Cook

President/Investment Rarities

It’s hard to extoll the virtues of silver in the face of a price decline. We anticipate gains for our clients and are disappointed in the recent results. A lot of people rely on our advice and we don’t want to let them down. We all do better when our clients experience gains.

That said, are we ever going to get to the promised land? Right now the byword is patience. A clear understanding of what’s causing the recent decline will be helpful in plotting the future. As you know, we rely on silver analyst Theodore Butler to chart our course and fashion our advice. I happen to know that all his personal investments are in silver so he is definitely eating his own cooking. Because of his all-out bullishness on silver we have to stress that he operates with a care and cautiousness befitting of a mature and shrewd analyst. He understands the futures market like few others. Despite his profound and pioneering analysis of silver, surprisingly few gold and silver editors have embraced his breakthrough opinions. Either because of ego or stubbornness other precious metals analysts are invariably barking up the wrong tree. Mr. Butler has for years been the sole purveyor of the truth about silver….Read More »

Ted Butler’s Silver Sales Pitch

Posted by on November 8th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Gold, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | 1 comment

This memorandum was written by Ted Butler

for the  Investment Rarities’ broker staff on October 28, 2014

ted-butlerThere is a flip side to everything and mainly as a result of the terrible beating it has taken over the past few years, the upside cycle for silver appears to be at hand. Not only is silver at a stupid cheap price, it has everything necessary to rally sharply and soon. This week, for the first time in my memory, the CEO of a leading silver miner, First Majestic, called on fellow silver miners to withhold production to break the back of the manipulation. If there’s one clear signal that a commodity’s price is too cheap, it is just that.

To an investor, a cheap price means low risk and a good time to buy. But what about the reasons for silver to rally and rally soon? Start with the largest speculative short position in history. You’ve heard me complain about a massive silver short position by JPMorgan and other banks for years, but I’m talking about something different now. While there is still a very sizable commercial paper short position on the COMEX, that is separate from the new historical short position in COMEX silver held by technical funds or traders who rely on chart signals alone to buy or sell….Read More »

Ted Butler: Tight Physical Market Leaves Shorts Vulnerable

Posted by on November 5th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 VulnerableSilverShorts

“All of the things I look at in silver seem to be aligned for a sharp move up,” says Ted Butler, in an interview with Investment Rarities’ President Jim Cook.  Butler explains that “The big commercial traders, led by JPMorgan, have managed to get all the technical hedge funds to plow into the short side of COMEX silver. The technical funds must buy back their thousands of short silver contracts since they can’t possibly deliver real silver.”

And in a more extended conversation, with Peak Prosperity‘s Chris Martenson, Butler reiterates that the technical funds “have no ability whatsoever to deliver physical metal and at the same time they’re shorting like crazy into a physical environment where there’s nothing but indications that the market on a wholesale, physical basis is very tight. And that’s a combination that you can just blow sky high in price.”

See also:

Reuters/SafeHaven:  Gold rises as dollar drops, breaks 4-day fall; Yen massacre and gold muscle

Mining.com/Bullion Star:  Chart – Silver price weakness won’t last; Insatiable Chinese gold demand continues unabated

Jim Rickards:  The difference between currency wars & financial wars

Zero Hedge:  Interest rates cannot rise – here’s why; Goldman shows “equity bust” risk highest since 2008

Bloomberg:  Singer’s Paul Elliott Says U.S. growth optimism unwarranted as data ‘cooked’

Sharelynx/Money MetalsGold manipulation at the LMBA fixes; Why your stockbroker hates gold – The ugly truth

Silver Seen Gaining on Gold

Posted by on October 17th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

G:Sratiodrop

With the gold/silver ratio at 71.4 on Thursday, Bloomberg‘s “Chart of the Day,” from 2012 on in the above, cites a forecast by UBS that has the ratio falling to 65.6 in 12 months. That calculation is based on UBS’s bearish forecast of $16 for silver and $1,050 for gold. According to one of the bank’s Singapore-based analysts, the gold/silver ratio currently “stands near crisis levels, which ignores the fact that economic activity next year should accelerate, with developed markets advancing and emerging ones moderating somewhat. Increases in silver ETFs suggest that the holding power of silver investors is immense and the metal still attracts physical investors.”  More from Mineweb‘s Lawrence Williams:  “Expect big silver price surge if gold stays positive.”

See also:

SilverSeek/Coin News:  Gold and silver end mixed as stocks stabilize; U.S. Mint sales – Core sets and Silver Eagles lead

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Cap, cap, cap – The fingerprints of officialdom were all over the markets today; Fed’s Bullard and the Plunge Protection Team to the rescue

WSJ/David Stockman:  Bullard says he would consider continuing QE after October; Now comes the “specter of deflation” – The money printers’ latest scam

Pragmatic CapitalismSo much for rate increases…

TF Metals Report/Alhambra Partners:  The current cap in gold; Another reminder gold is not often as it seems

Reuters/Businessweek:  45% of Americans say avoiding international air travel; America’s Ebola preppers go shopping for Clorox

Ebolisis

Metals Extend Post-Fed Gains as Stocks Sink

Posted by on October 10th 2014 in Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Interest Rates, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SchizoStocks

Gold and silver futures decoupled from the whipsawing stock market on Thursday, gaining 1.6% and 2.1% respectively. “Gold is benefiting from a flight to quality as the stock market is heading into a correction,” according to a Comex trader quoted by Reuters, who added that “Both gold and silver appear to be bottoming out after they have been in a bear market for a long period of time.”

And MarketWatch cites the namesake of a Montreal-based research firm, Lamoureux and Co., who “said that he’s telling clients the Fed has no interest in increasing rates whatsoever. And that’s a positive for gold.”  It goes on to quote Lamoureux as declaring:  “We are super gold bulls now and think we have entered a new commodities bull cycle.”

See also:

StockCharts.com/CNBC:  Gold bouncing off support; Buy gold now, trader says

SilverSeek:  U.S. Mint record Silver Eagle sales – the best all year

Zero Hedge:  Did Thursday’s “Satan signal” in S&P futures give the ‘all-clear’ for selling to begin?

Pragmatic Capitalism/Bloomberg:  What will be the most likely cause of the next big downturn?; Jim Rickards – Fundamental U.S. economy is very weak

Sharps Pixley/GATA:  Is Switzerland about to purchase 1500 tonnes of gold?; Swiss vote on central bank gold could limit manipulation

Vancouverdesi.com:  India accused of acting like a gold sponge, soaking up world’s gold reserves

Metals Take Small Steps in Right Direction

Posted by on October 3rd 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | 1 comment

SmallStepAs gold futures inched down on Thursday, and silver added about a half a percent, Comerzbank analysts noted that “Gold and silver have recovered somewhat from their respective multi-month and multiyear lows.” This as the U.S. dollar and the euro are said to “have turned modestly corrective this week, with the euro being boosted amid disappointment that the ECB didn’t make that final leap into QE.”

And, Reuters reports that “pro-democracy rallies in Hong Kong underpinned gold prices,” quoting one metals analyst as saying: “With the likelihood of further weakness in equity markets, coupled with the still-volatile situation in Hong Kong, we would rather not want to be short gold here, as we think the precious metal may benefit from some short-covering heading into the weekend.”

See also:

Nikeei Asian Review/NY Times:  China trying to avert another Tiananmen in Hong Kong; Mainland Chinese tourists get a glimpse of rebellion

Examiner.com:  China will use gold and gold pricing to force global currency reset

Coin News/Bloomberg:  U.S. Mint coins gain again; Gold sales at Perth Mint reach 11-month high as prices retreat

USA Gold:  U.S. Eagle gold and silver coin sales surged in September

SilverSeek/Daily Reckoning:  Gold to silver ratio – sentiment; 4 ways to make a fortune with one precious metal

Bloomberg: High-speed trader accused of commodity market ‘spoofing’; Is the New York Fed a pushover for big banks? Dudley fires back

Public Integrity:  Megabanks lock up prison financial services – Government gives no-bid contracts

Silver Price Seen Struggling—To Go Any Lower

Posted by on September 27th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | 1 comment

SilverTDI

Referencing the above chart of The Disparity Index (TDI), for silver, which measures the relative position of its current price to the 40-week moving average, Gary Christenson calls attention to “the recent smash-down in silver prices and its deeply over-sold daily status,” which has led to a current daily silver TDI reading that’s “the most over-sold since the post-1980 crash.

And in his weekly market wrap-up, Alasdair Macleod cites an exceptionally high volume of futures contracts being swapped for physical silver. “Could it be that this silver was required to be delivered to other markets,” asks Macleod, “such as Shanghai, where stocks are depleted and silver is trading at a price premium? Could it be that the acceleration of demand for silver eagles is indicative of the demand for physical silver at these low prices? If so, it is an indication that Comex is pricing silver futures too low to reflect genuine demand, and the price will struggle to go lower.”

See also:

Bloomberg/LA Times:  Gold drops 0.5% as U.S. economy expands most since end of 2011; silver gains 0.6%

Zero Hedge:  High-yield credit’s worst week in 15 months sends stocks sliding; It’s the dollar, stupid!

WSJ:  Watch that rising dollar, it might eventually give the Fed pause; U.S. dollar strength not likely to dampen inflation much

GoldCore:  Currency wars deepen – Russia, Kazakhstan buy very large 30 tons of gold in August

Jesse’s Café Américain:  William Cohan responds on his silver rigging exposé - Two U.S. national publications refused the story

Michael Lewis – The secret Goldman Sachs tapes:  ProPublica article; This American Life episode

Salon:  Wall Street’s new jackpot at taxpayers’ expense

Silver: Bad News ‘Now Built Into the Market’

Posted by on September 23rd 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverOpportunity

Although spot gold and silver inched up on Monday, silver is hovering near a four-year low.  But according to options trader Todd Horwitz, in the above interview with Bloomberg, silver’s “got real solid support around this $16, $17 level.”  And reminding that “this is where we actually broke out when we went up to $50 an ounce,” he declares that “I’d be a buyer here at about the $17.50 level.” Concerning silver’s drop on a stronger U.S. dollar, and what many see as a stepped-up timetable for an interest rate increase, Horwitz argues that “all of the news is now built into the market, so I think this is a great spot to take a step in and take a shot at buying it.”

See also:

Wall Street Journal/Reuters:  Alan Blinder – Behind the Fed’s dovish turn on rates; Shane Ferro – Interest rates aren’t going up anytime soon

Bron Suchecki/TradePlacer:  Gold bottoming?; Has the gold price drop run its course?

Seeking Alpha:  Lower lows in gold still highly likely; Is the bottom in? It doesn’t matter to me

Daily Pfennig/Mineweb:  Russia and China add to their gold reserves. Russian central bank buys more gold and builds bilateral trade with China

GoldSeek/SCMP:  Chinese checkmate; Established rivals may keep Shanghai trade zone’s gold exchange in check

CNN:  Six ways Shanghai is different than the rest of China

Hit ‘N Run Gold Timers Seen Moving On

Posted by on September 11th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Middle East, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Sentiment Shift

“Gold is finally getting close to a bottom in prices,” declares MarketWatch‘s observer of all things contrarian, Mark Hulbert. He explains that “what contrarians focus on is market sentiment, and on that front there has been a big change: For the first time in a long time, a large number of short-term gold timers have decided to throw in the towel. As a result, the market-timing community on balance is now more bearish than it has been in 14 months — which, according to the contrary logic of contrarian analysis, is a bullish development. The last time the typical gold timer was as gloomy as he is today, gold began a two-month rally in which it gained more than $200.” More on contrary investing, and why silver, especially the physical variety, may now be “the epitome of a contrary opinion asset.”

See also:

Coin News/BullionVault:  Gold falls, silver inches up and U.S. Mint coins gain; 3 reasons why the gold/silver ratio “will fall” as 2014 ends

Acting Man/Daily Reckoning:  Gold gets whacked – What happens next?; Jim Rickards – A win-win scenario for gold investors

Zero Hedge/Street Talk Live:  Why interest rates will stay low (or what happens when you cry “recovery” for 5 years in a row)

Bill Bonner/GoldSeek:  What I learned in China about the fate of the U.S. dollar; China pulling the strings

WSJ/OilPrice.com:  China deploys troops in South Sudan to defend oil fields; Islamic State’s ultimate goal- Saudi Arabia’s oil wells

Mining.com:  Goldcorp CEO – We have hit peak gold