Archive for the ‘Quants’ Category

Silver Seen Gaining on Gold

Posted by on October 17th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

G:Sratiodrop

With the gold/silver ratio at 71.4 on Thursday, Bloomberg‘s “Chart of the Day,” from 2012 on in the above, cites a forecast by UBS that has the ratio falling to 65.6 in 12 months. That calculation is based on UBS’s bearish forecast of $16 for silver and $1,050 for gold. According to one of the bank’s Singapore-based analysts, the gold/silver ratio currently “stands near crisis levels, which ignores the fact that economic activity next year should accelerate, with developed markets advancing and emerging ones moderating somewhat. Increases in silver ETFs suggest that the holding power of silver investors is immense and the metal still attracts physical investors.”  More from Mineweb‘s Lawrence Williams:  “Expect big silver price surge if gold stays positive.”

See also:

SilverSeek/Coin News:  Gold and silver end mixed as stocks stabilize; U.S. Mint sales – Core sets and Silver Eagles lead

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Cap, cap, cap – The fingerprints of officialdom were all over the markets today; Fed’s Bullard and the Plunge Protection Team to the rescue

WSJ/David Stockman:  Bullard says he would consider continuing QE after October; Now comes the “specter of deflation” – The money printers’ latest scam

Pragmatic CapitalismSo much for rate increases…

TF Metals Report/Alhambra Partners:  The current cap in gold; Another reminder gold is not often as it seems

Reuters/Businessweek:  45% of Americans say avoiding international air travel; America’s Ebola preppers go shopping for Clorox

Ebolisis

Metals Extend Post-Fed Gains as Stocks Sink

Posted by on October 10th 2014 in Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Interest Rates, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, USD, Wall Street | 1 comment

SchizoStocks

Gold and silver futures decoupled from the whipsawing stock market on Thursday, gaining 1.6% and 2.1% respectively. “Gold is benefiting from a flight to quality as the stock market is heading into a correction,” according to a Comex trader quoted by Reuters, who added that “Both gold and silver appear to be bottoming out after they have been in a bear market for a long period of time.”

And MarketWatch cites the namesake of a Montreal-based research firm, Lamoureux and Co., who “said that he’s telling clients the Fed has no interest in increasing rates whatsoever. And that’s a positive for gold.”  It goes on to quote Lamoureux as declaring:  “We are super gold bulls now and think we have entered a new commodities bull cycle.”

See also:

StockCharts.com/CNBC:  Gold bouncing off support; Buy gold now, trader says

SilverSeek:  U.S. Mint record Silver Eagle sales – the best all year

Zero Hedge:  Did Thursday’s “Satan signal” in S&P futures give the ‘all-clear’ for selling to begin?

Pragmatic Capitalism/Bloomberg:  What will be the most likely cause of the next big downturn?; Jim Rickards – Fundamental U.S. economy is very weak

Sharps Pixley/GATA:  Is Switzerland about to purchase 1500 tonnes of gold?; Swiss vote on central bank gold could limit manipulation

Vancouverdesi.com:  India accused of acting like a gold sponge, soaking up world’s gold reserves

Metals Take Small Steps in Right Direction

Posted by on October 3rd 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SmallStepAs gold futures inched down on Thursday, and silver added about a half a percent, Comerzbank analysts noted that “Gold and silver have recovered somewhat from their respective multi-month and multiyear lows.” This as the U.S. dollar and the euro are said to “have turned modestly corrective this week, with the euro being boosted amid disappointment that the ECB didn’t make that final leap into QE.”

And, Reuters reports that “pro-democracy rallies in Hong Kong underpinned gold prices,” quoting one metals analyst as saying: “With the likelihood of further weakness in equity markets, coupled with the still-volatile situation in Hong Kong, we would rather not want to be short gold here, as we think the precious metal may benefit from some short-covering heading into the weekend.”

See also:

Nikeei Asian Review/NY Times:  China trying to avert another Tiananmen in Hong Kong; Mainland Chinese tourists get a glimpse of rebellion

Examiner.com:  China will use gold and gold pricing to force global currency reset

Coin News/Bloomberg:  U.S. Mint coins gain again; Gold sales at Perth Mint reach 11-month high as prices retreat

USA Gold:  U.S. Eagle gold and silver coin sales surged in September

SilverSeek/Daily Reckoning:  Gold to silver ratio – sentiment; 4 ways to make a fortune with one precious metal

Bloomberg: High-speed trader accused of commodity market ‘spoofing’; Is the New York Fed a pushover for big banks? Dudley fires back

Public Integrity:  Megabanks lock up prison financial services – Government gives no-bid contracts

Silver Price Seen Struggling—To Go Any Lower

Posted by on September 27th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | 1 comment

SilverTDI

Referencing the above chart of The Disparity Index (TDI), for silver, which measures the relative position of its current price to the 40-week moving average, Gary Christenson calls attention to “the recent smash-down in silver prices and its deeply over-sold daily status,” which has led to a current daily silver TDI reading that’s “the most over-sold since the post-1980 crash.

And in his weekly market wrap-up, Alasdair Macleod cites an exceptionally high volume of futures contracts being swapped for physical silver. “Could it be that this silver was required to be delivered to other markets,” asks Macleod, “such as Shanghai, where stocks are depleted and silver is trading at a price premium? Could it be that the acceleration of demand for silver eagles is indicative of the demand for physical silver at these low prices? If so, it is an indication that Comex is pricing silver futures too low to reflect genuine demand, and the price will struggle to go lower.”

See also:

Bloomberg/LA Times:  Gold drops 0.5% as U.S. economy expands most since end of 2011; silver gains 0.6%

Zero Hedge:  High-yield credit’s worst week in 15 months sends stocks sliding; It’s the dollar, stupid!

WSJ:  Watch that rising dollar, it might eventually give the Fed pause; U.S. dollar strength not likely to dampen inflation much

GoldCore:  Currency wars deepen – Russia, Kazakhstan buy very large 30 tons of gold in August

Jesse’s Café Américain:  William Cohan responds on his silver rigging exposé - Two U.S. national publications refused the story

Michael Lewis – The secret Goldman Sachs tapes:  ProPublica article; This American Life episode

Salon:  Wall Street’s new jackpot at taxpayers’ expense

Silver: Bad News ‘Now Built Into the Market’

Posted by on September 23rd 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverOpportunity

Although spot gold and silver inched up on Monday, silver is hovering near a four-year low.  But according to options trader Todd Horwitz, in the above interview with Bloomberg, silver’s “got real solid support around this $16, $17 level.”  And reminding that “this is where we actually broke out when we went up to $50 an ounce,” he declares that “I’d be a buyer here at about the $17.50 level.” Concerning silver’s drop on a stronger U.S. dollar, and what many see as a stepped-up timetable for an interest rate increase, Horwitz argues that “all of the news is now built into the market, so I think this is a great spot to take a step in and take a shot at buying it.”

See also:

Wall Street Journal/Reuters:  Alan Blinder – Behind the Fed’s dovish turn on rates; Shane Ferro – Interest rates aren’t going up anytime soon

Bron Suchecki/TradePlacer:  Gold bottoming?; Has the gold price drop run its course?

Seeking Alpha:  Lower lows in gold still highly likely; Is the bottom in? It doesn’t matter to me

Daily Pfennig/Mineweb:  Russia and China add to their gold reserves. Russian central bank buys more gold and builds bilateral trade with China

GoldSeek/SCMP:  Chinese checkmate; Established rivals may keep Shanghai trade zone’s gold exchange in check

CNN:  Six ways Shanghai is different than the rest of China

Hit ‘N Run Gold Timers Seen Moving On

Posted by on September 11th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Middle East, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Sentiment Shift

“Gold is finally getting close to a bottom in prices,” declares MarketWatch‘s observer of all things contrarian, Mark Hulbert. He explains that “what contrarians focus on is market sentiment, and on that front there has been a big change: For the first time in a long time, a large number of short-term gold timers have decided to throw in the towel. As a result, the market-timing community on balance is now more bearish than it has been in 14 months — which, according to the contrary logic of contrarian analysis, is a bullish development. The last time the typical gold timer was as gloomy as he is today, gold began a two-month rally in which it gained more than $200.” More on contrary investing, and why silver, especially the physical variety, may now be “the epitome of a contrary opinion asset.”

See also:

Coin News/BullionVault:  Gold falls, silver inches up and U.S. Mint coins gain; 3 reasons why the gold/silver ratio “will fall” as 2014 ends

Acting Man/Daily Reckoning:  Gold gets whacked – What happens next?; Jim Rickards – A win-win scenario for gold investors

Zero Hedge/Street Talk Live:  Why interest rates will stay low (or what happens when you cry “recovery” for 5 years in a row)

Bill Bonner/GoldSeek:  What I learned in China about the fate of the U.S. dollar; China pulling the strings

WSJ/OilPrice.com:  China deploys troops in South Sudan to defend oil fields; Islamic State’s ultimate goal- Saudi Arabia’s oil wells

Mining.com:  Goldcorp CEO – We have hit peak gold

Silver Snaps Loss Streak; Eagles Heat Up

Posted by on August 7th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, General Economy, Gold, Monetary Policy, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 SilverEagleSalesHeatUp

Concerns about the situation in Ukraine boosted gold futures 1.8% on Wednesday and silver futures added 1% to snap a four-session losing streak. Silver fared better in the spot market, rising 1.7% compared to gold’s 1.6% increase.  Gold was also said to have benefited from data showing that Italy slid into recession in the second quarter, for the third time since 2008.  And, American Silver Eagle gained for the the third straight day, reports Coin News, surpassing 27 million for the year “to maintain a pace that is the second quickest in the coin’s 29-year history.”

See also:

SafeHaven/Got Gold ReportSilver pyramid power; Right or wrong, a great spot for a silver bounce

Mineweb:  Central banks continuing to boost gold reserves

Bloomberg/Telegraph: Russia sanctions accelerate risk to dollar dominance; Putin signs historic $20bn oil deal with Iran to bypass Western sanctions

Jesse’s Café Américain: Currency wars and the inevitable banquet of consequences

Ciovacco Capital/Peak ProsperityScenarios for a vulnerable stock market; Is this decline the real deal?

Reuters/WSJ:  High-frequency trading takes root in U.S. securities class actions; How one whistleblower turned the tables on high-frequency traders

Stocks’ ‘Wash and Rinse’ Drenching Dampens Metals

Posted by on August 1st 2014 in Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Middle East, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

LaundryDay

Spot gold and silver fell 1% on Thursday, which was only half as bad as stocks, with the three major indexes falling between 1.9% and 2.1%, including a 317 point plunge for the Dow. “So what happened today?,” asks the Café Américain‘s Jesse:  “Today was ‘laundry day’ at the U.S. markets, as the foamy stock peak of the past month took a hard turn in the old ‘wash and rinse’ cycle, that blew off the froth. That’s what it was.  Pure and simple… The ‘tell’ was the selling of gold and silver along with stocks today.  This was no flight to safety of cash on geopolitical jitters.”

See also:

USA Gold/Forex.com:  Gold drops as dollar jumps to 10-month high; Gold battered by buck’s surge, but short-term support sits at 1272

Zero Hedge: Elliott’s Paul Singer on gold, inflation & the global monetary delusion

Bloomberg/Mineweb:  Gold ETPs halt outflows as buyers return amid price slump; Lawrence Williams – Hold some gold. Better safe than sorry

Peak Prosperity:  The West’s reckless rush towards war with Russia

USA Today/CNN:  West Bank grows restive as war in Gaza continues; Analyst – Most Arab states are actively supporting Israel against the Palestinians

Haaretz:  The common denominator of Gaza and Ukraine: Outsiders who make things worse

Metals Retreat; West Bank Palestinians Advance

Posted by on July 25th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, General Economy, Gold, IMF, Middle East, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsRetreatPalestiniansAdvance

Gold and silver ended down about 1% and 2.5% respectively on Thursday, representing a buying opportunity for one scribe, as global strife took a back seat to what was seen as positive economic news from the eurozone and China, and on U.S. jobless claims hitting an eight-year low.  But citing earlier “negative surprises” from the U.S. and Chinese economies, and ongoing geopolitical risks, the IMF lowered its global growth forecast for 2014.

With gold dropping below $1,300 and stalling at its 200-day moving average, Reuters quotes one observer as saying, “To be fair, I think some people have a right to be disappointed that the stresses around the world haven’t led to a continued rise in the price of gold. We’re probably in oversold territory right now where gold is concerned, but we also seem to be pulling into an area between $1,290 and $1,280 that should offer some support to the market.”

See also:

Dan Norcini/Reuters:  China gold demand slumps 19.4 pct on yr, but output rises

Ted Butler:  Silver tightness

Hard Assets Investor:  Gold’s fair value – bear says $800, bull says $5,000

Investing.com/SafeHavenHappy markets in an unhappy world; Clear and present danger zone

Bloomberg/Business Insider:  Don’t tell anybody about this story on HFT power Jump Trading, one of 10 being eyed by the SEC

Wall Street On Parade:  Lawsuit stunner – Half of futures trades in Chicago are illegal wash trades

Metals Up After 2-Day Drop; Indian Gold Surge

Posted by on July 17th 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

IndianGoldSurge

Both spot gold and silver were up a fraction on what Reuters describes as “bottom-picking” following two down days, but gold’s rally was said to have “faded after data showed U.S. manufacturing output rose at its fastest pace in more than two years in the second quarter,” and following a talk by Dallas Fed President Richer Fisher in which he said that the Fed was “likely” to start raising interest rates early next year. Over at Bloomberg things were shinier for gold as it highlighted a report that Indian imports surged 65% year-over-year in June.

See also:

The Gold Report:  Editor- Upward trend a silver investor’s friend

Mineweb/GATA:  Bulls might take heart from latest gold smashdown failure; The more obvious they are, the closer the day of deliverance

Bullion Bulls CanadaThe end of the paper-gold market?

Zero Hedge/CSM:  Shocking first – Mainstream media rushes to defend dollar reserve status; Can BRICS development bank become a rival to the World Bank?

Jesse’s Café Américain/Nanex:  The stock market is rigged, with details

Wall Street on Parade:  Sen. Warren lets Yellen know she’s had it with Fed’s charade about too big to fail

Metals Nixed, but News is Mixed

Posted by on July 15th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsSlammedLower

Spot gold and silver dropped more than 2% on Monday, with one stated reason being an easing of problems in Portugal’s banking sector, which may still be far from solved. But arguably having little to do with Portugal, there was “massive selling in the futures market. Reportedly, 2300 futures contracts, with a notional value of $1.4 billion, were sold at the New York open,” according to USA Gold:  “We’ve seen such raids in the paper market in the past. Throwing this kind of volume at the market all at once is reflective of someone not interested in getting the best price, but rather someone looking to generate shock and awe.” But while gold was being shocked and awed to its worst day in 2014, U.S. Mint bullion coin sales jumped, and GLD, the major gold ETF, was said to have seen its largest inflow since August 2011.

See also:  

Ted Butler:  The silver conspiracy

Bloomberg:  Goldman stays gold bear as bullish wagers increase; Individuals pile into stocks as pros say bull is spent

Reuters:  Yellen says Fed easy money needed even after recovery – New Yorker

Business Insider/Zero HedgeNew Yorker article seen igniting CNBC shouter; Rick Santelli goes beserk

BullionStar.com:  Koos Jansen – For how long will people trust fiat money?

Metals Pop on Problemo Banco

Posted by on July 11th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

'Espirito' Moves Gold & Silver

Gold futures added 1.1% to approach four-month highs on Thursday and silver surged 2.1% after a parent company of Portugal’s Banco Espirito Santo “delayed debt payments on short-term notes, fueling concern that the euro region remains vulnerable to financial shocks,” reports Bloomberg, quoting one trader’s observation that “Equities are getting hammered, and we are seeing a flight to safety.”

“We did have a strong gold rally during the last period of sovereign risk in Europe, so it’s not surprising to see the market reacting like this,” said HSBC metals analyst James Steel, adding, “But to be fair, gold has been trending higher for a while now and there aren’t too many sellers to stand in the way with the geopolitical crises of the Middle East and Europe and the Fed’s insistence that higher U.S. rates are still way off.”

See also:

Barron’sFed policy to boost gold, silver (click thru for article)

Silver News Blog/SilverSeek:  Silver keeps chugging along; Steve St. Angelo:  Silver will be the king precious metal performer

Got Gold Report:  Swap dealers ‘goal line stand’ for Comex silver futures in jeopardy, short squeeze very possible now

Trader MC:  Metals and miners bull market point of recognition

Acting Man/Economic Collapse Blog:  Janet Yellen chimes in on the bubble question

Zero Hedge:  Did China just crush the U.S. housing market?; “Unrigged?” The bulk of odd lot trades on U.S. exchanges are one-share-lots!

Bloomberg:  Chicago Fed calls for curbs on high-frequency trading