Archive for the ‘Russia’ Category

Silver Price Seen Struggling—To Go Any Lower

Posted by on September 27th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverTDI

Referencing the above chart of The Disparity Index (TDI), for silver, which measures the relative position of its current price to the 40-week moving average, Gary Christenson calls attention to “the recent smash-down in silver prices and its deeply over-sold daily status,” which has led to a current daily silver TDI reading that’s “the most over-sold since the post-1980 crash.

And in his weekly market wrap-up, Alasdair Macleod cites an exceptionally high volume of futures contracts being swapped for physical silver. “Could it be that this silver was required to be delivered to other markets,” asks Macleod, “such as Shanghai, where stocks are depleted and silver is trading at a price premium? Could it be that the acceleration of demand for silver eagles is indicative of the demand for physical silver at these low prices? If so, it is an indication that Comex is pricing silver futures too low to reflect genuine demand, and the price will struggle to go lower.”

See also:

Bloomberg/LA Times:  Gold drops 0.5% as U.S. economy expands most since end of 2011; silver gains 0.6%

Zero Hedge:  High-yield credit’s worst week in 15 months sends stocks sliding; It’s the dollar, stupid!

WSJ:  Watch that rising dollar, it might eventually give the Fed pause; U.S. dollar strength not likely to dampen inflation much

GoldCore:  Currency wars deepen – Russia, Kazakhstan buy very large 30 tons of gold in August

Jesse’s Café Américain:  William Cohan responds on his silver rigging exposé - Two U.S. national publications refused the story

Michael Lewis – The secret Goldman Sachs tapes:  ProPublica article; This American Life episode

Salon:  Wall Street’s new jackpot at taxpayers’ expense

Silver: Bad News ‘Now Built Into the Market’

Posted by on September 23rd 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverOpportunity

Although spot gold and silver inched up on Monday, silver is hovering near a four-year low.  But according to options trader Todd Horwitz, in the above interview with Bloomberg, silver’s “got real solid support around this $16, $17 level.”  And reminding that “this is where we actually broke out when we went up to $50 an ounce,” he declares that “I’d be a buyer here at about the $17.50 level.” Concerning silver’s drop on a stronger U.S. dollar, and what many see as a stepped-up timetable for an interest rate increase, Horwitz argues that “all of the news is now built into the market, so I think this is a great spot to take a step in and take a shot at buying it.”

See also:

Wall Street Journal/Reuters:  Alan Blinder – Behind the Fed’s dovish turn on rates; Shane Ferro – Interest rates aren’t going up anytime soon

Bron Suchecki/TradePlacer:  Gold bottoming?; Has the gold price drop run its course?

Seeking Alpha:  Lower lows in gold still highly likely; Is the bottom in? It doesn’t matter to me

Daily Pfennig/Mineweb:  Russia and China add to their gold reserves. Russian central bank buys more gold and builds bilateral trade with China

GoldSeek/SCMP:  Chinese checkmate; Established rivals may keep Shanghai trade zone’s gold exchange in check

CNN:  Six ways Shanghai is different than the rest of China

Metals Pull Back; Time to Pull the Trigger?

Posted by on September 12th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

AreWeThereYet?

Following what was described as “the usual London-New York hit applied to the precious metals” Thursday morning, gold futures ended off 0.5% to hit a seven-month low, and silver gave up Wednesday’s gains, and then some, falling 1.7%. “It’s hard to get excited about gold in this current environment when the dollar is rising and the political tensions have eased,” said a money manager quoted by Bloomberg, adding that investors “don’t want gold when rates are expected to rise, while inflation has remained muted.” But further out, an analyst cited by MarketWatch, “said he’s not bearish on gold over the longer term due to geopolitical uncertainties and growth problems in Europe and China. Evidence of increasing inflation pressures in the U.S. could also push gold higher.”

See also:

Gold Switzerland/GoldCore:  Gold market’s weak hands have been shaken out; China holds “Gold Congress” – Positioning itself as global hub

SilverSeek/TradePlacer: Interview with Gary Christenson – Gold prices in 3 waves, silver is inexpensive & the stock market/gold relationship; Christenson – The silver sentiment cycle suggest higher silver prices in the years ahead

Hugo Salinas Price/GoldSeekFiat money and independence for Scotland; John Browne – A wee problem for the UK

Reuters:  Fed’s rate guidance on chopping block, new exit plan nears

Zero Hedge: Why U.S. interest rates can never rise (in one chilling CBO chart); How you know the time for more QE has come

Peter Schiff/Dan Norcini:  Doubling down on inflation; No inflationary pressure until wages move higher

Marketplace/CNBC:  Wage growth in the U.S. is stuck in the ’70s; Why Main Street isn’t creating jobs

Dollar Strength Trumps Hotspots—For Now

Posted by on September 10th 2014 in CFTC, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Russia, Silver, Ukraine | Be the first to comment!

PumpMeUpBefore spot gold and silver staged a late rally Tuesday to end up a fraction of a percent, they were weighed down by the dollar hitting a 14-month high against the euro, and what was seen as an easing of tensions in Ukraine:  “Political turmoil in various parts of the world that made gold attractive earlier this year seems to have eased, and now economics is overriding geopolitical events,” according to a precious metals dealer quoted by Bloomberg. But a USA Gold market report, while acknowledging that “recent cease-fires in Ukraine and in Gaza have perhaps prompted the unwinding of some safe-haven positions,” reminds that “the underlying problems that have resulted in these global hotspots are a long-way from being resolved.”

See also:

GoldCore/TradePlacer:  Macro factors dominating gold price as U.S. dollar outweighs physical demand & investor flows; Rising dollar weighing on gold & silver, but short-term reversal possible

Financial Times:  India prepares for shining return of gold demand

Bullion Star/Reuters: German gold repatriation accelerating; Peru’s gold output will likely fall 20 percent this year – official

Jesse’s Café Américain/Seeking Alpha:  Learning to love the Fed’s bubbles our only choice; Tracking the decline in risk aversion

Wall Street on Parade: Contagion – What the next Wall Street crisis will look like

CNBC/ValueWalk:  American stock holdings at 18-year low; CNBC’s ratings drop to 21-year low

Hitmen vs. Headlines; Dow vs. Gold

Posted by on September 9th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Dow:GoldRatioChart

Following what was described as “the usual hit,” silver and gold futures were off 1% on Monday, with MarketWatch attributing gold’s drop to “weak headline risk,” citing one analyst who argues:  “Curiously, geopolitical tensions do not seem to be providing it with much of a bid, and we suspect that this is because the apparent political upheavals are not impacting the global equity or bond markets other than to cause them to rally.” But a Seeking Alpha post points out, as illustrated by the above chart, that despite the Dow reaching a record high, the “Dow/gold ratio is still low on an historical basis,” remaining 69% below its all-time high.

See also:

USA Gold/Dan Norcini:  Gold retreats as euro and yen weakness pushes dollar higher

Seeking Alpha/Zero Hedge: Fake dollar strength continues to make gold an opportunity; Obama’s former chief economist calls for an end to U.S. dollar reserve status

Got Gold Report/BullionStar.com:  For Sept/Oct, watch CFTC’s ‘other reportables’ in silver futures; Another week of strong gold demand in China; Silver remains scarce in Shanghai

Reuters:  Ownership of UK gold up for negotiation if Scotland votes “yes”; New poll shows rival camps neck-and-neck

GoldSeek/Prudent Bear:  John Mauldin – Europe takes the QE baton; Doug Noland – Do whatever it takes to shock and awe

CBC/Project SyndicateDesperately seeking economic health in the era of free money; Kenneth Rogoff – The exaggerated death of inflation

Gold and Silver Supply: A Mere 20 More Years?

Posted by on September 6th 2014 in China, General Economy, Gold, India, Russia, Silver | Be the first to comment!

 

Gold&SilverSupply

Metals Firm Up After Falling Off

Posted by on September 4th 2014 in CFTC, ECB, General Economy, Gold, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsFirmUp

Spot gold and silver ended up a few-tenths of a percent on Wednesday, reports Reuters, attributing gold’s gains to “lingering tensions” over Ukraine, following cease-fire “confusion,” and a weaker dollar, both of which were said to have prompted “bargain hunting and short covering” following Tuesday’s sharp drop. But it also quotes UBS strategist, Edel Tully, as suggesting that “the lack of physical demand makes gold more vulnerable to the downside should U.S. employment data surprise on the upside this Friday.”

See also:

321 Gold/Hard Assets Investor:  Gold and silver – Jobs report tactics; Surging dollar sinks gold, but greenback’s upside looks limited

USA Gold/Gold Investing News:  Gold consolidates as focus shifts to ECB policy

Acting Man/Gold Silver Worlds:  Gold stocks and gold – Potentially bullish developments; Gold model projects prices from 1971 to 2021

Zero Hedge:  Icahn, Soros, Druckenmiller, and now Zell – Billionaires quietly preparing for the plunge; Message from top managers – “Prepare for turmoil

David Stockman/Of Two Minds: World’s financial system is rife with “stimulus” junkies; Central bank monetary policy enables us to put off real reforms

Yahoo! Finance:  Mysterious fake cellphone towers are intercepting calls all over the U.S.

Gold ‘Punished’ by Surging Dollar

Posted by on September 3rd 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, General Economy, Gold, Russia, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GoldPunishedByDollar

Those who have yet to employ September’s “buy gold now” strategy, received a discount Tuesday.  On what was described as a “volatile day” in the markets, spot gold, and silver, fell more than 1.5% as the dollar surged against the euro, with the strengthening dollar said to have finally caught up gold.  Sharps Pixley’s Ross Norman tells Reuters that “It’s when the dollar hits big numbers that gold gets punished and this is clearly one of those moments.  There is a lot to be concerned about on the political and economic front (but) people tend to get inured to the idea of bad news and it doesn’t affect them anymore.”

See also:

Jesse’s Café Américain:  Gold and silver charts – Cap, cap, pounce

Reuters/Deutsche Welle:  U.S., allies to stage exercises in West Ukraine as battles rage in East; Russia, China break ground on joint mega gas pipeline

Got Gold Report-Bloomberg:  China banks boost precious metals hoard amid lease demand

BullionVault/BullionStar.com:  China leads “strong recovery” in photovoltaic silver demand; Chinese weekly gold demand highest since February

GoldSeek:  Central banks get discounts for trading everything through CME Group and Comex

USA Watchdog/Arabian Money:  John Williams – U.S. economy in severe trouble; Finance professionals split over likelihood of a crash

Russia vs. Ukraine; Banks vs. Bullion

Posted by on August 29th 2014 in CME Group, Gold, JPMorgan, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsGainOnUkraine

Spot gold and silver gained about a half a percent Thursday as tensions ratcheted up between Ukraine and Russia. “The market is getting nervous about the Ukraine situation, and people are moving to gold,” said one commodities broker, adding that “Talks of further sanctions against Russia are increasing the safe-haven premium of gold.” And while noting that the “propaganda is flying hot and heavy from both sides” of the Ukraine border, Jesse’s Café Américain suggests that “A real flight to safety would crush the precious metal shorts if it spills over from paper to the bullion markets.  And so I would look for the banks to do all that they can to avoid it, diffuse it, deflect that possibility.”

Dollar Seen Losing Altitude

Posted by on August 28th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Middle East, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

DollarThrottlesBack

“The numerous sources of geopolitical crisis are evidently preventing the gold price from slumping,” said Commerzbank’s head of research, after spot gold edged up 0.1% on Wednesday and silver added a couple ticks more to gain 0.3%.  Gold’s gain was also attributed to a drop in the dollar, but there’s more to come, according to the chief economist at Saxo Bank:  “Our major call is:  short the US dollar index and long commodities … USD will weaken significantly from mid-Q3 into Q1-2015. The market remains overexposed to the dollar and U.S. equities relative to the norm. Furthermore, with mid-term elections on November 4 the coming budget talks will have a hard time producing the convincing and long-term results needed.”

See also:

USA Gold/BullionStar.com:  The interest rate trap and what it means to the gold market; Chinese gold demand y-t-d, silver surprise

Foreign Affairs/Market Oracle:  Just-published article recommends policy shift that is very bullish for gold

Gold Switzerland:  Interviews with GoldMoney’s Alasdair Macleod and The Telegraph‘s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Financial Times/New York Times:  Central bankers face ‘confidence bubble’; A new reason to question the official unemployment rate

Daily Reckoning:  Steve Forbes interviews James Grant – Bubbles, bargains & everything in between

Fed Seen ‘Trying to Bluff the Market’

Posted by on August 23rd 2014 in Bart Chilton, CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Janet,Jackson

At the end of a down week for gold and silver, off some 1.8%  and .7% respectively, both were up slightly on Friday as Ukraine held sway, with 130 trucks from Russia’s long-stalled “aid” convoy rolling across the border into Ukraine, which characterized the breach as a “direct invasion.” Not so direct was Fed Chair Yellen, whose speech at Jackson Hole was seen as “noncommittal,” and even “confusing,” while an analyst quoted by Bloomberg saw misdirection:  “They’re trying to bluff the market,” he said of the Fed. “They’re trying to warn investors about the potential for rate increases, without actually implementing a rate increase. I think that will strengthen the trading range for gold.”

See also:

GoldSeek/The Sovereign Investor:  Gold rising-rate fallacy; Inflation, interest rates, and why you should own gold

Gold Switzerland:  Gold unloved and undervalued

Hard Assets Investor/Dan Norcini:  Commodity ETF flows:  Money enters GLD & SLV; Aggressive hedge fund selling plagues silver

Got Gold Report:  Revolving Door Watch – High-frequency trading critic Bart Chilton joins HFT lobby effort

Zero Hedge/Jesse’s Café Américain:  South African bank – Give us your gold; A bond paid for & denominated in gold

Reuters/Mineweb:   China gold exchange gains traction as yuan reforms stir interest; Russia leading central bank gold buyer, but China – who knows?

NY Times/CNN:  NATO – Russians open fire in Ukraine; Is Obama heading toward airstrikes in Syria?

Hotspots Not Heating Up Gold—More Floor Than Soar

Posted by on August 20th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Gold&GeopoliticalRisk

“Gold obviously didn’t like the U.S. CPI and housing data, which boosted the dollar,” said a Saxo Bank manager, speaking about a 0.1% increase in the monthly inflation rate, and July’s 15.7% jump in U.S. home construction.  But despite that, spot gold was off only 0.2%, while spot silver took a 1% hit. And according to an analyst quoted by MarketWatch, gold will likely remain in a narrow trading range, “unless by some miracle, all the tensions in the world are sorted out. A doubtful scenario.  I hasten to add that gold is not the perfect safe haven, far from it, but it does knee-jerk react to headlines, and as such, the downside should be limited for the time being.”  But that said, gold is also not going through the roof during this period of global tensions, as evidenced by the above chart. Grant William’s looks at what’s behind “Gold’s sudden ignorance of geopolitical risk.”

See also:

Jesse’s Café Américain:  The paper metals are a charade

Reuters/BullionStar.com:  China said to allow 3 more banks to import gold; East Asia geared up for renminbi gold trading

GoldSeek/GATA:  The U.S. gold in Fort Knox is secure, gone, or irrelevant?; U.S. gold reserve likely has been leased out, Grant Williams tells KWN

CEO.caBig move brewing for gold

Of Two Minds/Tim Iacono:  Are capital inflows propping up U.S. markets?; Stocks or bonds – Which has it right?

Bloomberg:  Only rich know wage gains with no raises for U.S. workers

ProPublica/TomDispatch.com:  The best reporting on federal push to militarize local police; One nation under SWAT