Archive for the ‘Short Sellers’ Category

Down Week Also Brings Talk of Peak

Posted by on September 13th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Iraq, Middle East, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

?PeakGold?

With gold and silver falling some 3 percent on the week, USA Gold’s market report observes that “A lessening of geopolitical tensions (albethey superficial), expectations of diverging monetary policies and the resulting rise in the dollar are all contributing to the weaker tone in the yellow metal. However, a couple key factors suggest that the downside is limited from here. Previous forays below $1200 have prompted strong buying interest,” and, “the supply of gold is in fact tightening already.”

It cites a Wall Street Journal interview earlier this week with the CEO of mega-miner Goldcorp, Chuck Jeannes, who said that miners have reached “peak gold,” which he sees as “very positive” for gold’s long-term price. More on “peak” prospects, from Mineweb‘s Lawrence Williams, who writes that “Jeannes is almost certainly correct in his prediction that global gold output is about to turn downwards, and may well remain on a downwards path for many years to come.”

See also:

Mining.com/Got Gold Report:  Heavy precious metals shorting is bullish; Speculator ‘insurance shorts’ and swap dealer shorts likely to spark a counter rally in gold

SilverSeek:  Will the real silver commercial traders stand up?

Reuters/Bullion Star:  India’s love affair with gold may be over; India’s June gold import highest in 12 months

Seeking Alpha/Forbes:  Gold – Russia, Iran and China are ‘Doomsday Preppers‘; Transacting in gold can shaft the IRS

Street Talk Live5 things to ponder -”bear-ly” extant; The 7 deadly sins of investing

The Automatic Earth:  The Fed has a big surprise waiting for you

Wall Street Journal/Of Two Minds:  The Federal Reserve’s too cozy relationship with banks; Why has classical capitalism devolved to crony-capitalism?

TPM-AP/Liberty Blitzkrieg:  Has the world been bamboozled by the ISIS PR machine?; Florida Congresswoman – “I’m glad people have this 9/11 mentality again”

Metals Pull Back; Time to Pull the Trigger?

Posted by on September 12th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

AreWeThereYet?

Following what was described as “the usual London-New York hit applied to the precious metals” Thursday morning, gold futures ended off 0.5% to hit a seven-month low, and silver gave up Wednesday’s gains, and then some, falling 1.7%. “It’s hard to get excited about gold in this current environment when the dollar is rising and the political tensions have eased,” said a money manager quoted by Bloomberg, adding that investors “don’t want gold when rates are expected to rise, while inflation has remained muted.” But further out, an analyst cited by MarketWatch, “said he’s not bearish on gold over the longer term due to geopolitical uncertainties and growth problems in Europe and China. Evidence of increasing inflation pressures in the U.S. could also push gold higher.”

See also:

Gold Switzerland/GoldCore:  Gold market’s weak hands have been shaken out; China holds “Gold Congress” – Positioning itself as global hub

SilverSeek/TradePlacer: Interview with Gary Christenson – Gold prices in 3 waves, silver is inexpensive & the stock market/gold relationship; Christenson – The silver sentiment cycle suggest higher silver prices in the years ahead

Hugo Salinas Price/GoldSeekFiat money and independence for Scotland; John Browne – A wee problem for the UK

Reuters:  Fed’s rate guidance on chopping block, new exit plan nears

Zero Hedge: Why U.S. interest rates can never rise (in one chilling CBO chart); How you know the time for more QE has come

Peter Schiff/Dan Norcini:  Doubling down on inflation; No inflationary pressure until wages move higher

Marketplace/CNBC:  Wage growth in the U.S. is stuck in the ’70s; Why Main Street isn’t creating jobs

Hit ‘N Run Gold Timers Seen Moving On

Posted by on September 11th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Middle East, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Sentiment Shift

“Gold is finally getting close to a bottom in prices,” declares MarketWatch‘s observer of all things contrarian, Mark Hulbert. He explains that “what contrarians focus on is market sentiment, and on that front there has been a big change: For the first time in a long time, a large number of short-term gold timers have decided to throw in the towel. As a result, the market-timing community on balance is now more bearish than it has been in 14 months — which, according to the contrary logic of contrarian analysis, is a bullish development. The last time the typical gold timer was as gloomy as he is today, gold began a two-month rally in which it gained more than $200.” More on contrary investing, and why silver, especially the physical variety, may now be “the epitome of a contrary opinion asset.”

See also:

Coin News/BullionVault:  Gold falls, silver inches up and U.S. Mint coins gain; 3 reasons why the gold/silver ratio “will fall” as 2014 ends

Acting Man/Daily Reckoning:  Gold gets whacked – What happens next?; Jim Rickards – A win-win scenario for gold investors

Zero Hedge/Street Talk Live:  Why interest rates will stay low (or what happens when you cry “recovery” for 5 years in a row)

Bill Bonner/GoldSeek:  What I learned in China about the fate of the U.S. dollar; China pulling the strings

WSJ/OilPrice.com:  China deploys troops in South Sudan to defend oil fields; Islamic State’s ultimate goal- Saudi Arabia’s oil wells

Mining.com:  Goldcorp CEO – We have hit peak gold

Hitmen vs. Headlines; Dow vs. Gold

Posted by on September 9th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

Dow:GoldRatioChart

Following what was described as “the usual hit,” silver and gold futures were off 1% on Monday, with MarketWatch attributing gold’s drop to “weak headline risk,” citing one analyst who argues:  “Curiously, geopolitical tensions do not seem to be providing it with much of a bid, and we suspect that this is because the apparent political upheavals are not impacting the global equity or bond markets other than to cause them to rally.” But a Seeking Alpha post points out, as illustrated by the above chart, that despite the Dow reaching a record high, the “Dow/gold ratio is still low on an historical basis,” remaining 69% below its all-time high.

See also:

USA Gold/Dan Norcini:  Gold retreats as euro and yen weakness pushes dollar higher

Seeking Alpha/Zero Hedge: Fake dollar strength continues to make gold an opportunity; Obama’s former chief economist calls for an end to U.S. dollar reserve status

Got Gold Report/BullionStar.com:  For Sept/Oct, watch CFTC’s ‘other reportables’ in silver futures; Another week of strong gold demand in China; Silver remains scarce in Shanghai

Reuters:  Ownership of UK gold up for negotiation if Scotland votes “yes”; New poll shows rival camps neck-and-neck

GoldSeek/Prudent Bear:  John Mauldin – Europe takes the QE baton; Doug Noland – Do whatever it takes to shock and awe

CBC/Project SyndicateDesperately seeking economic health in the era of free money; Kenneth Rogoff – The exaggerated death of inflation

Metals Dip as ECB Rips

Posted by on September 5th 2014 in ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

ECBrates

In what was described as “a ham-handed attempt at perception management,” gold and silver futures fell 0.3% after “the European Central Bank stunned markets by cutting interest rates and embarking on a trillion-euro asset-buying binge,” sending the euro below $1.30 for the first time in 14 months. “While an environment of easier global monetary policies tends to be friendly for bullion, gold and the euro have a historical positive correlation,” said HSBC precious metals analyst, James Steel, “Subsequently, further pressure on the euro may weigh on gold.”

EuroGoldChart,jpg

Referencing the above chart, which dates back to February and currently sits at about 980 euros, Dan Norcini points out that for Europeans, “an interest rate environment such as the ECB is creating, is a two-edged sword.” In that “it lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold since bonds there pay next to nothing and thus incentivizes ownership of gold,” but also, “the stronger dollar (via weaker euro) raises the price of the metal and thus makes it more expensive to buy and own.” He concludes that “if EuroGold takes out the psychological and technical resistance level of 1000, then maybe we have something. For now, it is range bound.”

Metals Firm Up After Falling Off

Posted by on September 4th 2014 in CFTC, ECB, General Economy, Gold, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsFirmUp

Spot gold and silver ended up a few-tenths of a percent on Wednesday, reports Reuters, attributing gold’s gains to “lingering tensions” over Ukraine, following cease-fire “confusion,” and a weaker dollar, both of which were said to have prompted “bargain hunting and short covering” following Tuesday’s sharp drop. But it also quotes UBS strategist, Edel Tully, as suggesting that “the lack of physical demand makes gold more vulnerable to the downside should U.S. employment data surprise on the upside this Friday.”

See also:

321 Gold/Hard Assets Investor:  Gold and silver – Jobs report tactics; Surging dollar sinks gold, but greenback’s upside looks limited

USA Gold/Gold Investing News:  Gold consolidates as focus shifts to ECB policy

Acting Man/Gold Silver Worlds:  Gold stocks and gold – Potentially bullish developments; Gold model projects prices from 1971 to 2021

Zero Hedge:  Icahn, Soros, Druckenmiller, and now Zell – Billionaires quietly preparing for the plunge; Message from top managers – “Prepare for turmoil

David Stockman/Of Two Minds: World’s financial system is rife with “stimulus” junkies; Central bank monetary policy enables us to put off real reforms

Yahoo! Finance:  Mysterious fake cellphone towers are intercepting calls all over the U.S.

See Ya in September!

Posted by on August 30th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Middle East, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

HopeSpringsSepternal

Gold and silver futures fell about a half a percent on the final U.S. trading day in August, but it’s said that “September should be glowing for gold,” with the biggest boost likely coming from India. The article accompanying the above chart points out that Indian seasonal buying which is forecast to be better than last year, “typically increases with the country’s festival period, which runs from late August to October….” A Wall Street Journal feature on India’s ‘improving appetite‘ for gold, is echoed by a Scrap Monster report that gold premiums in India have more than doubled this week, “in anticipation of towering festive season demand.”

See also:

Jesse’s Café Américain/SafeHaven:  Coppock Indicator – An intermediate term bottom for gold is in; Enormous paper silver trading volumes

BullionStar.com/Smaulgld:  Precious metals markets – China vs. US; The Importance of gold to nations & individuals

WSJ/USA Gold:  Bernanke – 2008 meltdown was worse than Great Depression; Don’t think it can’t happen again

Businessweek/CBS News: For every education level, real wages have gone down so far this year; Americans fear economy is permanently scarred

CNBC/Dow Jones: One-percenters bullish on US despite ‘failed’ Obama presidency; Fed’s Lockhart & Fisher were active personal asset traders in 2013

Zero Hedge:  Marc Faber slams US intervention in Middle East, warns “whole region will blow up

Russia vs. Ukraine; Banks vs. Bullion

Posted by on August 29th 2014 in CME Group, Gold, JPMorgan, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MetalsGainOnUkraine

Spot gold and silver gained about a half a percent Thursday as tensions ratcheted up between Ukraine and Russia. “The market is getting nervous about the Ukraine situation, and people are moving to gold,” said one commodities broker, adding that “Talks of further sanctions against Russia are increasing the safe-haven premium of gold.” And while noting that the “propaganda is flying hot and heavy from both sides” of the Ukraine border, Jesse’s Café Américain suggests that “A real flight to safety would crush the precious metal shorts if it spills over from paper to the bullion markets.  And so I would look for the banks to do all that they can to avoid it, diffuse it, deflect that possibility.”

What Is It Saying?

Posted by on August 29th 2014 in Federal Reserve, General Economy, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 

WhatTheHell'sItSaying?

Dollar Seen Losing Altitude

Posted by on August 28th 2014 in CFTC, China, ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Iraq, Middle East, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, U.S. Congress, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

DollarThrottlesBack

“The numerous sources of geopolitical crisis are evidently preventing the gold price from slumping,” said Commerzbank’s head of research, after spot gold edged up 0.1% on Wednesday and silver added a couple ticks more to gain 0.3%.  Gold’s gain was also attributed to a drop in the dollar, but there’s more to come, according to the chief economist at Saxo Bank:  “Our major call is:  short the US dollar index and long commodities … USD will weaken significantly from mid-Q3 into Q1-2015. The market remains overexposed to the dollar and U.S. equities relative to the norm. Furthermore, with mid-term elections on November 4 the coming budget talks will have a hard time producing the convincing and long-term results needed.”

See also:

USA Gold/BullionStar.com:  The interest rate trap and what it means to the gold market; Chinese gold demand y-t-d, silver surprise

Foreign Affairs/Market Oracle:  Just-published article recommends policy shift that is very bullish for gold

Gold Switzerland:  Interviews with GoldMoney’s Alasdair Macleod and The Telegraph‘s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Financial Times/New York Times:  Central bankers face ‘confidence bubble’; A new reason to question the official unemployment rate

Daily Reckoning:  Steve Forbes interviews James Grant – Bubbles, bargains & everything in between

Ted Butler: How Silver Could Bubble Up

Posted by on August 27th 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverBubbleIn making the case for a “coming silver bubble,” Ted Butler explains that “an asset bubble develops when an undervalued asset which has a compelling investment story and there exists an overall financial environment of sufficient buying power, catches the collective interest of the crowd. For example, by the mid-2000’s and after years of steady appreciation, residential real estate developed into an asset bubble amid the self-fulfilling cycle of continued gains and the availability of easy credit.

As far as great stories go, silver has the best potential story to develop into a bubble. First, there is little argument BubblingUpthat it is among the most, if not the most undervalued asset of all by objective relative historical price comparison. In addition, it is at or below its primary cost of production, as evidenced in recent quarterly earnings reports. Remember, most bubbles start out with an asset that is undervalued – on this score silver more than qualifies as being undervalued. Aside from extreme undervaluation, the silver story is multi-faceted.”… Read More >>>

See also:

Coin News/SRSrocco ReportGold, silver rise; Silver Eagle bullion coins top 28M;  Shanghai silver warehouse stocks fall 24% in one week

Bloomberg/LA Times: Gold advances most in two weeks on Ukraine tension

GoldCore/GoldSeek:  Russia coordinating gold reserve accumulation with ex-Soviet states?; Will the U.S. succeed in breaking Russia to maintain dollar hegemony?

Mineweb/SafeHaven:  Is Asian gold demand really slipping so much?; Road sign says – Pot of gold ahead

Daily Reckoning/Zero Hedge:  As the Fed prints money, buy gold and brace for impact; Council on Foreign Relations – “Central Banks should hand consumers cash directly

Metals Edge Down as Stocks, Dollar Gain on QE Hints

Posted by on August 26th 2014 in ECB, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 ECBQE

Following a brief move higher on Monday, spot gold and silver ended down a fraction of a percent, with gold said to have been under pressure from “a stronger U.S. dollar and rallying global financial markets,” buoyed by the prospect of the ECB launching a QE program, based on remarks by Mario Draghi at Jackson Hole. But USA Gold points out that “the yellow metal has proven fairly resilient … Despite the dollar strength—which is more a function of euro and yen weakness.  A weak round of U.S. data this morning may be helping the cause as well, pushing back Fed rate hike expectations somewhat.”

See also:

Bloomberg/Washington Post:  Jackson Hole theme – Labor markets can’t take higher interest rates; Central banks to lawmakers - You try growing the economy

Confounded Interest:  Yellen discusses labor slack, but not terminal (money) velocity or sterility

John Hussman/HBR:  Fed policy and the growing gap between Wall Street and Main Street; Profits without prosperity

Bloomberg:  Speculators lower gold bull wagers on U.S. rate outlook; Silver open interest reaches 14-month high on short bets

Seeking Alpha/BullionStar.com. Commodity outlook – Silver; India imports 2559 MT of silver in 5 months

Gold Scents/SilverSeek:  Manipulation is still alive and well in the gold market; Beditching hour - Silver knocked down at 6 p.m. for 83% of sessions in last 3 years