Archive for the ‘Ted Butler’ Category

MarketWatch: ‘How Gold has Stomped the Competition’

Posted by on March 22nd 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, India, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MarketWatchGold

“After a 28% price plunge in 2013, the worst since at least 1984, analysts weren’t expecting much from gold this year,” begins MarketWatch’s annotated slideshow on how “Gold is beating nearly every investment this year…. Many big banks were forecasting average 2014 prices below $1,300 an ounce, down from last year’s average of $1,413. But the precious metal has already managed to outperform U.S. stocks, bonds, emerging markets and the dollar.

Gold benefitted as two important sources of demand bought at the same time: Western speculators and Eastern savers, said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter…. The metal’s performance has been impressive against a bevy of assets. But its path is far from set. Developments between Ukraine, Russia and the West are still fluid, and hints from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen that a U.S. interest-rate hike could take place sooner rather than later could make bond yields more attractive. Still, if you were one of those contrarians who were quietly bullish in January, we’ll forgive some back-patting. In seven charts, here’s a look at how gold has stomped the competition and what could come next.” ….Read More >>>  

See also:

Zero Hedge/Mineweb:  Goldman doubles down its hate on the best performing asset of 2014; Goldman’s blinkered view on gold could be so wrong

Dan Norcini:  Carnage in biotech sector provides support for gold

SilverSeek/Jesse’s Café Américain: Ted Butler – Suing JPMorgan & the COMEX; “My primary concern is a lack of transparency.”

CNBC:  Peter Schiff and Mark Dow do battle on gold

Zero Hedge/Asia TimesPetrodollar alert:  Putin prepares to announce “holy grail” gas deal with China; How Crimea plays in Beijing

The Hankyoreh/Bloomberg:  Official gold market to open in South Korea; Smuggled gold in flower pots defying India import limits

FOMC Meets Spell Weak Weeks for Gold

Posted by on March 21st 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

FOMCweeksGold

Zero Hedge:  “What is more confidence-inspiring in the Fed’s ability to manage the world and the continued dominance of the U.S. dollar as global reserve currency than a falling gold price… and when better to show that than FOMC meeting weeks… welcome to the centrally-planned world where the announcement of ongoing trillions in fiat dilution constantly crushes the price of undilutable money.”

The above chart comes courtesy of Meridian Macro. Click on the “Gold & Silver Report (weekly)” button on the charts page for a free pdf sample of their March 14 offering.

See also:

Jim Rickards: Fed does not want ‘disorderly’ rise in gold prices

Reuters/MarketWatch:  Gold flat on Fed plans, easing Ukraine tensions; Gold, silver settle at lowest levels month to date

Dan Norcini:  Easing Ukranian tensions, hawkish Fed, undercut gold

STA Wealth Management:  What history says about Fed rate hikes

Mineweb:  Yellen knocks gold. Will Putin drive it back up again?; Silver imports soar 180% in India

Reuters/Ted Butler:  CME Group to launch gold, silver copper weekly options in April; The COMEX has developed into a ‘bucket shop‘ comprised of speculators

GoldSwitzerland:  Koos Jansen – China’s gold policy is one of the world’s most important developments

Gold Continues Rise; No Safe-Haven Bid for USD

Posted by on March 14th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

NoSafeHavenBid4USD

Silver ended off 0.4% on Thursday, which is what gold gained to reach a fresh six-month high.  After being down earlier in the day as weekly jobless claims hit a three-month low and retail sales saw their first gain in three months, “Gold then found support as equities reversed course,” reports MarketWatch, “apparently pressured by the escalation of conflict between Ukraine and Russia and downbeat economic data from China.”

And citing the above chart showing that the U.S. dollar is nearing lows that it hit last October, Dan Norcini wonders why it “has not been able to garner any support in the form of safe-haven buying related to the deteriorating crisis over in Ukraine,” given its recent role as “the ‘Go-To’ currency during times of financial or geopolitical crisis.” But what he doesn’t question is that “this persistent dollar weakness is providing a strong floor of support in the gold market.”

See also:

Ted Butler:  Why not just close the COMEX; A possible way out for JPMorgan

Mineweb/Steve St. Angelo:  HSBC – Silver’s three main drivers for 2014; Silver production from top six companies declined in 2013

Hard Assets Investor/MarketWatch:  Marc Faber – Why gold looks better than the S&P 500; Faber sees China growth at 4% — good news for its ‘gigantic’ bubble

GoldCore:  Russia may retaliate sanctions by demanding payment for exports in gold

Washington Post/Zero Hedge:  Russian troops gathering at Ukraine border for exercises as standoff continues; Where the troops are – The full “pre-takeover” infographic

Silver: Longest Win Steak Since 1968; Seen Boosted by Chinese Data

Posted by on February 19th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

ChinaSilverDemandBefore spot gold and silver ended mixed on Tuesday, with gold off 0.4% and silver up 1%, Dan Norcini wrote of “both strong short covering and fresh buying occurring across the broad commodity sector this AM. The reason? Stronger than expected data out of China,” which he sees as “the reason that silver continues to outperform gold to the upside for now….Last week it was data revealing a surge in both imports and exports. Today it was the larger than expected foreign direct investment numbers. This is also the reason that the overall commodity sector continues to march higher. Shorts are getting squeezed out across the board.”

See also:

Zero Hedge:  Silver has longest winning streak since 1968Spikes to 3-month high

Seeking Alpha:  Gold and silver – Are shorts about to panic?

CNBC:  How the big money is betting on gold now

SiverSeek: Ted Butler – What really happened to Bear Stearns?

Wall Street Journal:  China overtakes India as world’s biggest gold buyer

Reuters:  Hong Kong gold exchange eyes 1,500-tonne warehouse in mainland China

What’s JPMorgan’s Long Game?

Posted by on February 5th 2014 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

JPMorganLongGame

A Gold Silver Worlds‘ article highlights Ted Butler’s analysis that JPMorgan has built the longest position in physical silver in recorded history, having “accumulated between 100 and 200 million ounces of physical silver (if not more).” And in his latest weekly review, Butler writes that “Quite literally, what JPMorgan does or doesn’t do determines the price of gold and silver. It’s easy to lose track of the big picture when one focuses on all the details. But when you step back a bit, JPMorgan is dominant in just about every detail.”

Citing the above quote, a post at Jesse’s Café Américain applauds Butler for doing “an exceptionally good job of analyzing the Comex market, and I appreciate his efforts…. Sources like this are a blessing.”  But, adds that “I am rather reluctant to lay any wagers on JPM’s motives based on this information however.  It is not clear to me where their ultimate interests, as well as profits, may lie in this matter.  And for whom they may be acting, even as they seemingly take positions for their own accounts. Unfortunately, this is the nature of the game, in times of currency wars.   Some of the TBTF Banks act as instruments of policy for their respective governments from time to time, and are certainly beholden to them.  Everything is not always as it may seem.”

See also:

MarketWatch:  Gold ends 0.7% lower as dollar gains, equities rebound; silver adds 0.1%

TF Metals ReportBear down

Zero Hedge:  Citi – Stocks, bonds, gold, & JPY levels to watch

CNBC:  Marc Faber – Here’s how much I want stocks to fall; Peter Schiff – Prepare for a gold ‘moonshot’

GATA:  The gold market is central banking’s most desperate project

Mises DailyBernanke’s legacy – A weak and mediocre economy

JPMorgan Seen Flipping the Script for 2014

Posted by on January 3rd 2014 in CFTC, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

MorganButler2013

“As has been the case for the past five years (since it acquired the concentrated short positions of Bear Stearns), 2013 was the year of JPMorgan in silver and gold,” declares Ted Butler.  “Everything important that transpired in silver and gold can be traced to JPMorgan, just as this bank will dictate what happens in the future. I realize I am being overly specific and that many different factors influence the price of any market; but the circumstances surrounding JPMorgan are so overwhelming as to render all those other factors combined moot when it comes to silver and gold.” In concluding his well-detailed analysis, Butler argues that “We fell sharply in 2013 because of JPMorgan and will likely rise sharply in 2014 for the same reason. From my perspective, that’s all that matters. 2013 – Good riddance. 2014 – Step right in.” …Read More >>>

‘Angry Bart Takes His Parting Shot’

Posted by on December 24th 2013 in Bart Chilton, CFTC, Gary Gensler, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

AngryBart

In early November, Bart Chilton announced that his 6 1/2-year tenure as a CFTC commissioner would end at the end of this year.  As the only commissioner who publicly expressed concern about gold and silver market manipulation heads for the exits, Bloomberg columnist William Cohan writes that “Chilton leaves behind a sobering message: As we long suspected, Wall Street continues to use every trick in its playbook to do whatever it can to eviscerate numerous post-financial-crisis rules. The arsenal includes high-powered lobbyists who outnumber lawmakers 10-to-1; $1,000-an-hour letter-writing lawyers who gain strength from negotiating over arcana; and the occasional hoodwinking of a president whose knowledge of the ways of finance are close to nil.” … Read More >>>

Before President Obama announced last week that he’s nominating Wall Street securities attorney Sharon Bowen to replace Chilton, the New Republic reported that Bowen “has little background in derivatives, commodities or agricultural markets—the core subjects of CFTC regulation—and no track record for reform.”

See also:

NY Times:  Federal Reserve grants JPMorgan right to expand its reach in electricity

Ted Butler:  JPMorgan and others used taper announcement to manipulate metals’ prices lower

Winter Actionables:  JPMorgan thought to be procuring gold on behalf of China

Saudi Gazette:  Drop in gold prices fuels buying frenzy

Times of India/ReutersSmugglers smile as Indian emigres can bring 1 kilo of gold into country legally

Zero Hedge:  A year later, Bundesbank has repatriated only 37 tons of gold (of 700 total)

GoldSeek/MarketWatchGold and silver gain in pre-Christmas trade; Gold pushes back above $1,200

Gold Scents/Greedometer:  Earnings season could bring the stock bear out of hibernation; Margin debt hits yet another new all-time high

 

Gold Be Gone … To China

Posted by on December 20th 2013 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

GoldBeGoneToChina

With gold and silver off 1.8% and 2.7% respectively on Thursday, Jesse’s Café Américain addresses commentary by a Bloomberg analyst, who said that London’s gold vaults are “virtually empty. And went on to explain that the “gold had been transferred out of London, 26 million ounces, and its gone to Switzerland, where its been recast into a higher grade and shipped off to Hong Kong. And then into China, never to return.”

And in an interview with GoldBroker.com, Café proprietor Jesse further discusses the shift from West to East, and he’s also asked how concerned should gold and silver investors be about the correction in the metals, which has lasted more than two years:  “Corrections are all a part of a bull market. I would suggest that people not hold over large positions or use leverage if they are worrying. That is often a sign that they have not come to terms with what they are doing, and have not taken a position that serves them and their needs suitably. But to be direct, based on my own portfolio and positioning I am not concerned. My investment horizon is very long term. I am playing the turn of a page in history and these only have the appearance.”

Precious Metals Seen Boosted by Recession ‘Curveball’

Posted by on December 17th 2013 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | 1 comment

2104curveball

Citing a recent assessment by a Deutsche Bank analyst, “The curveball for 2014 – A U.S. recession,” Gonzalo Lira asks, “What is there’s a recession in 2014?,” and looks at how various asset classes might perform.  He argues that “The only store of value will be commodities. Not just precious metals, but all commodities: Industrials, agros, and fossil fuels. It will simply make more sense for the investment community to rotate out of iffy stocks and dodgy bonds, and rotate into physical commodities. Why? Because there is too much liquidity. If there is such a rotation from equities and bonds into commodities, then the prices of food and transportation will rise—precipitously. Thus we will have inflation, possibly severe inflation. But the Fed will be loathe to rein in inflation via interest rate hikes.”

See also:

Reuters:  Nobel economics winner Fama says risk of global recession in 2014

GoldSeek:  Gold & silver end slightly lower before Fed day

GoldCore:  Gold to rally year-end as traders close some of record short positions; The 6 myths of gold explained

ETF Trends:  Silver ETF’s popularity provides stark contrast to gold fallout

Ted Butler:  Is JPMorgan ending its death grip on the gold market?

TF Metals Report:  A conversation with Bron Suchecki of the Perth Mint

Silver: Paper Futures Belie Physical Strength

Posted by on November 15th 2013 in CFTC, China, Gold, India, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverMintRecord2013

Despite gaining almost 1.5% on Thursday and Friday, Comex silver futures fell 2.8% for the week, reports MarketWatch, “But analysts and bullion dealers touted strength in physical demand for silver.”  The article cites sales of 2013 American Silver Eagles topping 40 million this week to set an annual record, and, MarketWatch‘s latest “Commodities Corner” column, headlined “Silver coin supplies buckle on fever-pitch retail buys.” It quotes BullionVault’s Adrian Ash as saying that “Private investor demand for physical silver in 2013 has been staggering,” and, “Refiners can’t mint enough product and they’re seeing none of it come back for melt.”

See also:

Bloomberg:  U.S. Mint’s silver coin sales reach annual record

Wall Street JournalInvestors flock to silver coins

Silver Investing News:  Silver trades down as Thomson Reuters GFMS predicts higher demand in 2013

Steve St. Angelo:  Silver Bears:  You have been warned

SilverSeek:  Eric Sprott – Silver, silver stocks will go much higher

Hair Today, Gone Tomorrow

Posted by on November 6th 2013 in Bart Chilton, CFTC, Gary Gensler, GATA, Gold, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

ChiltonCallsItQuitsCFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton announced that he’s leaving the agency at the end of the year.  Or, GATA’s Chris Powell puts it, in an appreciation of Chilton’s efforts to address allegations of manipulation in the gold and silver markets, “Financial interests finally get rid of CFTC’s Chilton.”

“Chilton’s five-year term on the CFTC expired in April and he had said this year that he would like to be reappointed,” writes Powell.  “His announcement today contradicting himself suggests that he has been told that President Obama would not be renominating him, which should be no surprise, given the enormous trouble Chilton has caused for the powerful financial interests that control the U.S. government….His departure from the CFTC will be a great loss….Read more >>>

See also:

PoliticoMaverick CFTC member Bart Chilton to exit

Zero Hedge:  Bart Chilton jumps CFTC ship

Reuters:  New commissioners open CFTC to change

MarketWatch:  In announcing departure, CFTC’s Chilton references Etta James’ “At Last

Ted Butler: A ‘Very Big Change’ in Silver Futures

Posted by on October 29th 2013 in CFTC, China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, U.S. Congress, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

ButlerBigSilverFuturesChange

In an excerpt from his newsletter to subscribers, Ted Butler points out that “the concentrated long position of the four largest Comex silver traders is higher and closer in size to the concentrated short position of the four biggest shorts (obviously different traders) than any time in my memory. I’m not sure what this means, but I am always sensitive to anomalies and changes in Comex silver as it might signal an end to the manipulation. The four big longs in Comex silver hold 29,040 contracts long and the 4 big short traders are short 35,378 contracts. Never have these respective concentrated positions been so evenly matched.”

Butler goes on to note that historically, “the big 4 shorts’ position was anywhere from 2 to 4 times larger than what the 4 big longs held in Comex silver. To see them this evenly matched is a very big change, along the lines of seeing JPMorgan holding an unprecedented long market corner in Comex gold –  something way out of the ordinary. It would seem the big 4 longs in silver are in the commercial swap dealers category (with perhaps a managed money long thrown in). One thing that comes to mind is that either someone big may be taking JPMorgan on, or that JPMorgan is the buyer in a different reporting name. Is there anyone remaining who doesn’t assume the worst when JPMorgan is involved?”

News & Views

MarketWatch/USA Gold:  Gold falls 0.5%, with Fed ‘distraction’ for bull, bears; silver off 0.2%; Gold pulls-back modestly, but impetus remains to upside

Zero Hedge/Mineweb:  Gold tests 5-week highs – Citigroup:  Gold and silver should continue pushing higher; David Levenstein – Gold prices to stay volatile despite beginnings of new positive trend

Gold Silver Worlds/Jesse’s Café AméricainPlaceholder gold vs. physical gold – Spot the massive disparity; Size of gold futures & OTC market vs. physical market for gold

CNBC/Roll Call: Yellen to be more dovish than ‘Helicopter Ben’ – CNBC survey; Sen. Lindsey Graham threatens nominations logjam over Benghazi

Zero Hedge:  Head of world’s largest asset manager says taper “imperative” to end “Bubble-like markets”; CNBC’s Santelli stunned as Nobel winner Fama explains Fed unwind “is no big deal”

Hard Assets Investor/GoldSwitzerland/Daily ReckoningInflation, not QE, will be what ignites next big rally in gold prices; Inflation attacks the Dollar Menu

Sovereign Man:  Congress to eliminate debt by not counting it anymore…; Treasury’s deceit exposed by this ballsy government official

Telegraph:  BIS sees risk of 1998-style Asian crisis as Chinese dollar debt soars; JP Morgan sees ‘most extreme excess‘ of global liquidity ever

Reuters/Forbes/Matt Taibbi:  JPMorgan’s $13 billion deal hits stumbling blocks – sources; The Madoff chickens are coming home to roost at JPMorgan Chase

AFP/IBT:  Bankers afraid to leave Switzerland amid U.S. tax crackdown;  The Edward Snowden of the banking world

WSJ/APWhose side is your broker on?; Deadbeat gamblers as economic indicator

Gold&SilverExpert