Archive for the ‘Ted Butler’ Category

CRUNCH TIME

Posted by on May 31st 2017 in JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler | Be the first to comment!

By James Cook

Our great silver analyst, Theodore Butler, is breaking ground again with his analysis of the two opposing forces in the silver and gold futures markets. Only a few months ago, the big banks led by JPMorgan were out $4 billion in these markets. Now, they’ve engineered a price drop that erased the loss and generated a $3 billion profit. That’s a $7 billion dollar swing.

 

According to Mr. Butler, JPMorgan and the big banks who were short enormous quantities of gold and silver managed to manipulate the market lower causing the computer-driven hedge funds (managed-money traders) to sell. What they sold, the big banks bought which lowered the bank’s short positions and closed out their contracts at a profit. That normally clears the way for another price cycle where the big banks once again snooker the hedge funds.

 

However, this time things look different. Normally when the price penetrates the moving averages to the downside, the hedge funds not only sell out of their long position to the big banks, they keep selling until they have established a new short position. They go from long to short. This time they don’t appear to be doing that. In the past, this has always been a money-losing trade for them, so they have apparently wised up and discontinued it. No new shorting means we should be going up much sooner.

 

As we go up, we cross the moving averages to the upside and the hedge funds automatically start buying again. To buy, they must have entities who will sell to them. This has always been the big banks who do so by going short. In some of the most brilliant analysis of his career, Mr. Butler lays out reasons why he doesn’t think the big banks will go short again at these low levels. He suggests that because they were out $4 billion earlier this year, they will be far more cautious. Further, he points out that the hedge funds have far more money these days because investors are looking for returns they can’t get elsewhere. This gives the hedge funds more buying power and the possibility they can overrun the shorts. So, the big banks will proceed with caution from here on out. That’s exceedingly bullish.

 

Mr. Butler points out the biggest buyer, JPMorgan has reduced its short position to its lowest in a year and their enormous holding of physical silver now amounts to 550 million ounces. The biggest impediment to a price rise in silver has been removed. “This is nirvana,” says Ted. “We are much closer to the bottom than we are to the ultimate top, so it’s the perfect time to buy.” He told me to pound on the table to get people to buy.

A Wild Week

Posted by on May 30th 2017 in CFTC, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler | Be the first to comment!

by Theodore Butler

Despite what you may have read, the big banks did not sell gold and silver to depress the price on the big drop recently. The data will show, just as they have always shown that the managed-money traders (computer-driven hedge funds) were the big sellers and the commercials (big banks) were the big buyers. In that fashion, JPMorgan and the big banks successfully closed out a large portion of their profitable short positions. The commercials rig prices lower through the magic of spoofing and other computer scams, but they do so only to generate managed-money selling, so that the commercials can then buy. And this week, the managed-money traders sold COMEX gold and silver in droves, while the commercials bought every contract sold. That’s the game. With record trading volume, this past week was among the best financially for the commercials and worst ever for the managed-money traders in gold and silver. Including the extraordinary price turnaround on Tuesday evening into Wednesday, I’d estimate that JPMorgan and the other commercials made more than $3 billion in gold and silver this week and the managed-money traders lost the same amount.

That’s a far cry from the near $4 billion the commercials were in the hole for during the summer price highs. This is the money game that drives gold and silver prices. The good news is that the market structure is nowhere near as bearish. We have taken a large step towards getting most of the downside price damage behind us. The commercials whacked huge chunks off the price and there seemed to be an urgency in getting the job done.

When the selloff is done, it is likely to be the final selloff in silver. JPMorgan is in the best position for a silver blastoff than it has ever been, particularly after this week, with its largest physical position ever and a sharply reduced paper short position (the whole point of the selloff). It is impossible that the commercials aren’t tuned into the managed-money traders’ behavior, especially considering how few in number are the large commercials. Earlier this year, the commercials were in the hole $4 billion in gold and silver, only to have made that back and $3 billion more over the decline. These are stakes guaranteed to get attention.

The reason for the $4 billion loss was that the commercials miscalculated in allowing themselves to sell short to the managed-money longs at too low gold and silver prices earlier in the year. The reason the commercials miscalculated is that they misjudged the extent to which managed-money traders have attracted investor money. It was large investor inflows that created the much larger positions the managed-money traders put on this year.

Better than anyone else, the commercials and in particular JPMorgan now fully appreciate the tremendous buying and selling power that the managed-money traders possess. Armed with this knowledge, the commercials will never sell as aggressively at low prices when the prospects are for much more managed-money buying to come. It will be to the commercials’ advantage to lay back and hold off when the managed-money traders begin to buy, rather than rush to sell too soon as was the case earlier this year. This would result in much sharper price moves for silver than we’ve witnessed to date.

The right time to buy silver is after it has fallen sharply in price. That’s true with many investments, but buying silver at the right price can make you more money than just about anything else. The good news is that silver has fallen sharply from its summer price highs; making it a better buy now than it has been in many months.

GET STARTED WITH OUR $99 FIVE-PIECE SILVER SAMPLER

 Click on coins to view offer.

A Wild Week

Posted by on May 24th 2017 in Federal Reserve, General Economy, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Uncategorized | Be the first to comment!

 

by Theodore Butler

Despite what you may have read, the big banks did not sell gold and silver to depress the price on the big drop recently. The data will show, just as they have always shown that the managed-money traders (computer-driven hedge funds) were the big sellers and the commercials (big banks) were the big buyers. In that fashion, JPMorgan and the big banks successfully closed out a large portion of their profitable short positions. The commercials rig prices lower through the magic of spoofing and other computer scams, but they do so only to generate managed-money selling, so that the commercials can then buy. And this week, the managed-money traders sold COMEX gold and silver in droves, while the commercials bought every contract sold. That’s the game. With record trading volume, this past week was among the best financially for the commercials and worst ever for the managed-money traders in gold and silver. Including the extraordinary price turnaround on Tuesday evening into Wednesday, I’d estimate that JPMorgan and the other commercials made more than $3 billion in gold and silver this week and the managed-money traders lost the same amount.

That’s a far cry from the near $4 billion the commercials were in the hole for during the summer price highs. This is the money game that drives gold and silver prices. The good news is that the market structure is nowhere near as bearish. We have taken a large step towards getting most of the downside price damage behind us. The commercials whacked huge chunks off the price and there seemed to be an urgency in getting the job done.

When the selloff is done, it is likely to be the final selloff in silver. JPMorgan is in the best position for a silver blastoff than it has ever been, particularly after this week, with its largest physical position ever and a sharply reduced paper short position (the whole point of the selloff). It is impossible that the commercials aren’t tuned into the managed-money traders’ behavior, especially considering how few in number are the large commercials. Earlier this year, the commercials were in the hole $4 billion in gold and silver, only to have made that back and $3 billion more over the decline. These are stakes guaranteed to get attention.

The reason for the $4 billion loss was that the commercials miscalculated in allowing themselves to sell short to the managed-money longs at too low gold and silver prices earlier in the year. The reason the commercials miscalculated is that they misjudged the extent to which managed-money traders have attracted investor money. It was large investor inflows that created the much larger positions the managed-money traders put on this year.

Better than anyone else, the commercials and in particular JPMorgan now fully appreciate the tremendous buying and selling power that the managed-money traders possess. Armed with this knowledge, the commercials will never sell as aggressively at low prices when the prospects are for much more managed-money buying to come. It will be to the commercials’ advantage to lay back and hold off when the managed-money traders begin to buy, rather than rush to sell too soon as was the case earlier this year. This would result in much sharper price moves for silver than we’ve witnessed to date.

The right time to buy silver is after it has fallen sharply in price. That’s true with many investments, but buying silver at the right price can make you more money than just about anything else. The good news is that silver has fallen sharply from its summer price highs; making it a better buy now than it has been in many months.

GET STARTED WITH OUR $99 FIVE-PIECE SILVER SAMPLER

 Click on coins to view offer.

A Wild Week

Posted by on May 15th 2017 in General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Ted Butler | Be the first to comment!

A WILD WEEK

By Theodore Butler

Despite what you may have read, the big banks did not sell gold and silver to depress the price on the big drop recently. The data will show, just as they have always shown that the managed-money traders (computer-driven hedge funds) were the big sellers and the commercials (big banks) were the big buyers. In that fashion, JPMorgan and the big banks successfully closed out a large portion of their profitable short positions. The commercials rig prices lower through the magic of spoofing and other computer scams, but they do so only to generate managed-money selling, so that the commercials can then buy. And this week, the managed-money traders sold COMEX gold and silver in droves, while the commercials bought every contract sold. That’s the game. With record trading volume, this past week was among the best financially for the commercials and worst ever for the managed-money traders in gold and silver. Including the extraordinary price turnaround on Tuesday evening into Wednesday, I’d estimate that JPMorgan and the other commercials made more than $3 billion in gold and silver this week and the managed-money traders lost the same amount.

 

That’s a far cry from the near $4 billion the commercials were in the hole for during the summer price highs. This is the money game that drives gold and silver prices. The good news is that the market structure is nowhere near as bearish. We have taken a large step towards getting most of the downside price damage behind us. The commercials whacked huge chunks off the price and there seemed to be an urgency in getting the job done.

 

When the selloff is done, it is likely to be the final selloff in silver. JPMorgan is in the best position for a silver blastoff than it has ever been, particularly after this week, with its largest physical position ever and a sharply reduced paper short position (the whole point of the selloff). It is impossible that the commercials aren’t tuned into the managed-money traders’ behavior, especially considering how few in number are the large commercials. Earlier this year, the commercials were in the hole $4 billion in gold and silver, only to have made that back and $3 billion more over the decline. These are stakes guaranteed to get attention.

 

The reason for the $4 billion loss was that the commercials miscalculated in allowing themselves to sell short to the managed-money longs at too low gold and silver prices earlier in the year. The reason the commercials miscalculated is that they misjudged the extent to which managed-money traders have attracted investor money. It was large investor inflows that created the much larger positions the managed-money traders put on this year.

 

Better than anyone else, the commercials and in particular JPMorgan now fully appreciate the tremendous buying and selling power that the managed-money traders possess. Armed with this knowledge, the commercials will never sell as aggressively at low prices when the prospects are for much more managed-money buying to come. It will be to the commercials’ advantage to lay back and hold off when the managed-money traders begin to buy, rather than rush to sell too soon as was the case earlier this year. This would result in much sharper price moves for silver than we’ve witnessed to date.

 

The right time to buy silver is after it has fallen sharply in price. That’s true with many investments, but buying silver at the right price can make you more money than just about anything else. The good news is that silver has fallen sharply from its summer price highs; making it a better buy now than it has been in many months.

GET STARTED WITH OUR $99 FIVE-PIECE SILVER SAMPLER

Click to view offer

 

A Wild Week

Posted by on May 10th 2017 in Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler | Be the first to comment!

A WILD WEEK

By Theodore Butler

 

Despite what you may have read, the big banks did not sell gold and silver to depress the price on the big drop recently. The data will show, just as they have always shown that the managed-money traders (computer-driven hedge funds) were the big sellers and the commercials (big banks) were the big buyers. In that fashion, JPMorgan and the big banks successfully closed out a large portion of their profitable short positions. The commercials rig prices lower through the magic of spoofing and other computer scams, but they do so only to generate managed-money selling, so that the commercials can then buy. And this week, the managed-money traders sold COMEX gold and silver in droves, while the commercials bought every contract sold. That’s the game. With record trading volume, this past week was among the best financially for the commercials and worst ever for the managed-money traders in gold and silver. Including the extraordinary price turnaround on Tuesday evening into Wednesday, I’d estimate that JPMorgan and the other commercials made more than $3 billion in gold and silver this week and the managed-money traders lost the same amount.

 

That’s a far cry from the near $4 billion the commercials were in the hole for during the summer price highs. This is the money game that drives gold and silver prices. The good news is that the market structure is nowhere near as bearish. We have taken a large step towards getting most of the downside price damage behind us. The commercials whacked huge chunks off the price and there seemed to be an urgency in getting the job done.

 

When the selloff is done, it is likely to be the final selloff in silver. JPMorgan is in the best position for a silver blastoff than it has ever been, particularly after this week, with its largest physical position ever and a sharply reduced paper short position (the whole point of the selloff). It is impossible that the commercials aren’t tuned into the managed-money traders’ behavior, especially considering how few in number are the large commercials. Earlier this year, the commercials were in the hole $4 billion in gold and silver, only to have made that back and $3 billion more over the decline. These are stakes guaranteed to get attention.

 

The reason for the $4 billion loss was that the commercials miscalculated in allowing themselves to sell short to the managed-money longs at too low gold and silver prices earlier in the year. The reason the commercials miscalculated is that they misjudged the extent to which managed-money traders have attracted investor money. It was large investor inflows that created the much larger positions the managed-money traders put on this year.

 

Better than anyone else, the commercials and in particular JPMorgan now fully appreciate the tremendous buying and selling power that the managed-money traders possess. Armed with this knowledge, the commercials will never sell as aggressively at low prices when the prospects are for much more managed-money buying to come. It will be to the commercials’ advantage to lay back and hold off when the managed-money traders begin to buy, rather than rush to sell too soon as was the case earlier this year. This would result in much sharper price moves for silver than we’ve witnessed to date.

 

The right time to buy silver is after it has fallen sharply in price. That’s true with many investments, but buying silver at the right price can make you more money than just about anything else. The good news is that silver has fallen sharply from its summer price highs; making it a better buy now than it has been in many months.

GET STARTED WITH OUR $99 FIVE-PIECE SILVER SAMPLER


Marc Faber: Physical Gold Trumps Mining Shares

Posted by on November 14th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, USD, Wall Street | 1 comment

BuyGoldYouCanHold

In a subscriber-only ETF.com interview, excerpted by Hard Assets Investor, Marc Faber weighs in on where gold’s headed and why he prefers the end product over the companies that mine it:

Q:  Gold plunged immediately after the [Oct. 31] BoJ announcement [that it would expand its asset purchases], which came only days after the Federal Reserve announced the end of QE. Where do you see gold headed in 2015?

Faber: I think it will go up. But can it go down first? Yes. In general, I would say the game that central bankers are playing is very clear: They start out with QE1 in the U.S., and then that forced essentially other central banks to do the same, to also go QE. They’re kind of passing each other the ball. One stops, the other one starts. It’s basically a game designed to kill the purchasing power of paper money. I’m not sure they’re aware of it, but in my view, this is the beginning of the end of paper money in this century.

And asked about physical gold vs. mining shares, Faber says: In general, my advice to investors is to own physical gold and not gold mining shares. Because in a disaster scenario, you don’t know what financial assets will be worth, whereas physical gold is in your possession.”…Read more>>>

See also:

Bloomberg/24/7 Wall St.:  Gold inches up, silver flat, as jobless claims rise more than forecast

Dan Norcini/WGC:  World Gold Council issues its latest report

Acting Man:  Gold market sentiment – A contrarian’s dream?

Forbes/TradePlacer:  Are small investors right about silver?; Ted Butler to silver miners – COMEX is responsible for low silver prices

Telegraph/RBTH:  Putin stockpiles gold as Russia prepares for economic war

Gold Market Macro: Eastern physical demand versus Western financial supply – who will win out?

Sorry, For the Moment

Posted by on November 8th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Gold, JPMorgan, Media, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

By James Cook

President/Investment Rarities

It’s hard to extoll the virtues of silver in the face of a price decline. We anticipate gains for our clients and are disappointed in the recent results. A lot of people rely on our advice and we don’t want to let them down. We all do better when our clients experience gains.

That said, are we ever going to get to the promised land? Right now the byword is patience. A clear understanding of what’s causing the recent decline will be helpful in plotting the future. As you know, we rely on silver analyst Theodore Butler to chart our course and fashion our advice. I happen to know that all his personal investments are in silver so he is definitely eating his own cooking. Because of his all-out bullishness on silver we have to stress that he operates with a care and cautiousness befitting of a mature and shrewd analyst. He understands the futures market like few others. Despite his profound and pioneering analysis of silver, surprisingly few gold and silver editors have embraced his breakthrough opinions. Either because of ego or stubbornness other precious metals analysts are invariably barking up the wrong tree. Mr. Butler has for years been the sole purveyor of the truth about silver….Read More »

Ted Butler’s Silver Sales Pitch

Posted by on November 8th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Gold, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | 1 comment

This memorandum was written by Ted Butler

for the  Investment Rarities’ broker staff on October 28, 2014

ted-butlerThere is a flip side to everything and mainly as a result of the terrible beating it has taken over the past few years, the upside cycle for silver appears to be at hand. Not only is silver at a stupid cheap price, it has everything necessary to rally sharply and soon. This week, for the first time in my memory, the CEO of a leading silver miner, First Majestic, called on fellow silver miners to withhold production to break the back of the manipulation. If there’s one clear signal that a commodity’s price is too cheap, it is just that.

To an investor, a cheap price means low risk and a good time to buy. But what about the reasons for silver to rally and rally soon? Start with the largest speculative short position in history. You’ve heard me complain about a massive silver short position by JPMorgan and other banks for years, but I’m talking about something different now. While there is still a very sizable commercial paper short position on the COMEX, that is separate from the new historical short position in COMEX silver held by technical funds or traders who rely on chart signals alone to buy or sell….Read More »

Ted Butler: Tight Physical Market Leaves Shorts Vulnerable

Posted by on November 5th 2014 in CFTC, China, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, JPMorgan, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

 VulnerableSilverShorts

“All of the things I look at in silver seem to be aligned for a sharp move up,” says Ted Butler, in an interview with Investment Rarities’ President Jim Cook.  Butler explains that “The big commercial traders, led by JPMorgan, have managed to get all the technical hedge funds to plow into the short side of COMEX silver. The technical funds must buy back their thousands of short silver contracts since they can’t possibly deliver real silver.”

And in a more extended conversation, with Peak Prosperity‘s Chris Martenson, Butler reiterates that the technical funds “have no ability whatsoever to deliver physical metal and at the same time they’re shorting like crazy into a physical environment where there’s nothing but indications that the market on a wholesale, physical basis is very tight. And that’s a combination that you can just blow sky high in price.”

See also:

Reuters/SafeHaven:  Gold rises as dollar drops, breaks 4-day fall; Yen massacre and gold muscle

Mining.com/Bullion Star:  Chart – Silver price weakness won’t last; Insatiable Chinese gold demand continues unabated

Jim Rickards:  The difference between currency wars & financial wars

Zero Hedge:  Interest rates cannot rise – here’s why; Goldman shows “equity bust” risk highest since 2008

Bloomberg:  Singer’s Paul Elliott Says U.S. growth optimism unwarranted as data ‘cooked’

Sharelynx/Money MetalsGold manipulation at the LMBA fixes; Why your stockbroker hates gold – The ugly truth

‘Plunge Protection Team’: Everywhere or Nowhere?

Posted by on October 23rd 2014 in Bailout, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Interest Rates, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, USD, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

PlungeProtectionTeam

Gold and silver futures ended off 0.5% and 1.8% on Wednesday, with the drop attributed in some quarters to a “firming dollar and subdued inflation,” which an analyst cited by MarketWatch sees as “a normal trading correction.”  And while a post at Jesse’s Café Américain agrees, suggesting that the metals “may have taken a pause at support,” he also finds it “interesting to see them run with stocks today, in the face of some exogenous risk events. They are certainly acting oddly. One has to wonder if this is a related action by the “Plunge Protection Team” which feels free to purchase stocks at key points apparently to help restore confidence.”

David Stockman’s Contra Corner advances the argument that there is a “Plunge Protection Team,” and “It’s called the FOMC.” This as Bloomberg reports that Citigroup analysts “have put a price on how much liquidity central banks need to provide each quarter to stop markets from sliding. By estimating that zero stimulus would be consistent with a 10 percent quarterly drop in equities, they calculate it takes around $200 billion from central banks each quarter to keep markets from selling off.”

Ted Butler has also raised the issue of the “Plunge Protection Team” meddling in the metals, alleging that it gave JPMorgan the greenlight to manipulate the silver market.

Metals Trade In Narrow Range; More Upside Ahead?

Posted by on October 15th 2014 in CFTC, CME Group, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Syria, Ted Butler, USD, Wall Street | 1 comment

MetalsUpsideAhead

Gold and silver futures gained 0.3% each on Tuesday, while spot prices fell a similar percentage, reports Reuters, noting that global growth anxieties “sent U.S. 30-year bond yields below 3 percent for the first time since May 2013, while benchmark 10-year yields fell to a 16-month low of 2.18 percent. ‘U.S. Treasury yields at these levels are not pointing to a rosy economy,'” according to a COMEX gold options trader, who predicted that “Gold and silver should have more upside after they have spent a long time in the bear market.”

See also:

MarketWatch/Coin News:  Global growth concerns bring gold new shine; Gold nears 4-week high; Silver Eagle sales top 35 million y-t-d

Daily Reckoning/Seeking Alpha:  Jim Rickards   A win-win scenario for gold investors; Silver to rocket but when?

Gold Silver Worlds:  Ted Butler’s silver price outlook – Why this time could be different

Reuters/SRSrocco Report: Silver price-fixing lawsuits consolidated in Manhattan federal court; Bankers manipulation of gold & silver – Proof in the demand data

Wall Street on Parade/IRD:  The stock market has lost confidence in central banks as gods; Is the money printing facade cracking?

Zero Hedge:  What the Fed does next; The QE4 countdown has begun

Ted Butler: How Silver Could Bubble Up

Posted by on August 27th 2014 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Ukraine, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!

SilverBubbleIn making the case for a “coming silver bubble,” Ted Butler explains that “an asset bubble develops when an undervalued asset which has a compelling investment story and there exists an overall financial environment of sufficient buying power, catches the collective interest of the crowd. For example, by the mid-2000’s and after years of steady appreciation, residential real estate developed into an asset bubble amid the self-fulfilling cycle of continued gains and the availability of easy credit.

As far as great stories go, silver has the best potential story to develop into a bubble. First, there is little argument BubblingUpthat it is among the most, if not the most undervalued asset of all by objective relative historical price comparison. In addition, it is at or below its primary cost of production, as evidenced in recent quarterly earnings reports. Remember, most bubbles start out with an asset that is undervalued – on this score silver more than qualifies as being undervalued. Aside from extreme undervaluation, the silver story is multi-faceted.”… Read More >>>

See also:

Coin News/SRSrocco ReportGold, silver rise; Silver Eagle bullion coins top 28M;  Shanghai silver warehouse stocks fall 24% in one week

Bloomberg/LA Times: Gold advances most in two weeks on Ukraine tension

GoldCore/GoldSeek:  Russia coordinating gold reserve accumulation with ex-Soviet states?; Will the U.S. succeed in breaking Russia to maintain dollar hegemony?

Mineweb/SafeHaven:  Is Asian gold demand really slipping so much?; Road sign says – Pot of gold ahead

Daily Reckoning/Zero Hedge:  As the Fed prints money, buy gold and brace for impact; Council on Foreign Relations – “Central Banks should hand consumers cash directly