Posted by Investment Rarities on November 22nd 2013 in CFTC, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
With Comex gold and silver futures down 3.4% and 4.2% respectively for the week, Dan Norcini, lamenting gold’s “meager bounce” on Friday, writes that “The number of bulls continues to fall as more and more investors/traders flee the precious metals sector in favor of high yields in equities. Once again the Dow is over 16,000 and the S&P 500 has now broken firmly above the 1800 level. With those kinds of gains, who needs gold is the new trading adage.
Until something happens which derails equities and sends shock waves of fear throughout the financial system (something which rattles CONFIDENCE) it is difficult for me to envision gold moving higher other than occasional bounces from short covering. Look at the VIX or Volatility Index. It is stuck at multi-year lows. The complacency in the system is nothing short of astonishing. There isn’t a care in the world in the minds of most investors/traders!”
SilverSeek: Why gold and silver are having a tough time
P. Radomski: Precious metals – The long-term perspective
Bloomberg: Gold option wagers on surge to $3000 was most-active Wednesday
Jim Wyckoff: Why tapering may be bullish for metals
SafeHaven: Hard to believe but gold remains in a bull market
USA Gold: Trust your instincts
Posted by Investment Rarities on November 21st 2013 in China, General Economy, Gold, India, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
Spot gold and silver prices rebounded on Thursday, and the gold/silver ratio ended the day at just above 62. Numismaster‘s Patrick Heller argues that it’s headed lower over the next two years, and here’s why:
1. I anticipate substantially higher prices for both metals in the next year or two. With silver being more volatile in price, it should increase by a greater percentage than gold, which would knock down the ratio.
2. The amount of newly mined silver supplies is only about 10 times more than gold. Stated differently, there is not enough silver coming out of the ground to provide 50 or 60 ounces of physical silver for every ounce of gold needed for investor and industrial purposes.
3. The price of silver has acted counterintuitively in 2013. Through several changes in taxes and import restrictions, India’s government has severely restricted the ability of the citizenry to acquire gold. As a consequence, demand for physical silver in India has soared over the past few months.
Heller concludes that “silver will outperform gold over the next couple of years. To be conservative, I still think gold should make up one-third to 40 percent of one’s combined investment in gold and silver, but I am definitely favoring the prospects for silver.”
Posted by Investment Rarities on November 21st 2013 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, George Soros, Gold, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
In a MarketWatch column offering up “4 reasons gold is poised for a comeback,” InvestorPlace.com editor, Jeff Reeves, suggests that “it’s possible that gold has found a floor and that now is a decent time to buy.” He concedes that “there are still some big challenges for the precious metal — especially in the last week or so when prices have been steadily rolling back again. But even if investors are a bit early as they turn to gold, fears of overbought domestic stocks may make even an uncertain bet in gold a preferable alternative to some right now.” The four reasons he cites are 1) global physical demand, 2) a slowing in the pace of ETF outflows, 3) Smart money likes gold, and 4) Tapering delayed, buy not denied. And about the latter he reminds that “gold rallied from a low of under $1,200 at the end of June to $1,400 in August on the expectation that tighter monetary policy was on the way.”
Posted by Investment Rarities on November 20th 2013 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
Gold and silver extended losses following Wednesday’s release of the FOMC’s October meeting minutes, which revealed discussion of tapering “in coming months” or “at one of its next few meetings.” And while the minutes were described as “bearishly construed” for gold and silver, with one precious metals telling Reuters that “Tapering is still definitely on the table,” Zero Hedge points out that “all it takes is for one algo to get the idea of pricing in the inevitable subsequent un-taper and to send the entire risk complex soaring.”
Sober Look: 5 years of QE and the distributional effects
Dan Norcini: ECB to move to negative interest rates
Reuters: Gold pours into China to meet record demand, bypasses Hong Kong
Mineweb: Financially strained Venezuela reportedly cuts gold deal with Goldman Sachs
Sprott Group: 19 ‘tough’ questions for Eric Sprott on gold and silver
Posted by Investment Rarities on November 19th 2013 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Goldman Sachs, Janet Yellen, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Quants, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
As Bloomberg reports that gold is “no slam-dunk sell in China as aunties buy bullion,” MarketWatch quotes the Midas Letter‘s James West as saying that “Gold and silver prices continue to be buffeted by demand for physical gold from Asian buyers versus negative investment sentiment in the western world expressed in sales of ‘paper’ gold…. Either the western world under appreciates the growing divergence between physical supply and demand, or an absence of regulation in terms of position sizes in paper derivatives of gold engenders mispricing. Either way the long-term price for precious metals is pressured upward with every new month of a quantitatively-eased increase in sovereign debt.”
Reuters: Fed’s Yellen maintains dovish message in lawmaker letters
Alasdair Macleod: Fiat money quantity hits new record
Economic Policy Journal: Treasury printing of $100 bills exploding
Mineweb: Analyst – China gold consumption running at over 2,000 tonnes this year
Zero Hedge: Gold manipulation probed by U.K. regulator
Posted by Investment Rarities on November 19th 2013 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, India, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
In an interview with the Birch Gold Group, Jim Rogers covers the waterfront on currency wars, the likely difficulties the Fed will face in tapering, and of course, precious metals. He declares that “I’ve never sold any gold and if gold comes down and I expect it to go down, doesn’t mean it will, I’ll buy more. I’m certainly not going to sell.” And asked if he prefers silver or gold, he points out that “silver is historically down 60% from its all-time highs, so yes, I would prefer silver at the moment because gold is down only what, 30 or 40% from its all-time highs.” And in an interview with Bull Market Thinking‘s Tekoa Da Silva, Rogers discusses what he sees as the “artificial” highs in the U.S. stock market, and explains why he’s not buying gold yet.
Posted by Investment Rarities on November 18th 2013 in Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
Comex gold and silver futures fell 1.2% and 1.8% respectively on Monday, reports Bloomberg, which quoted one trader as saying that “Money is running toward equities. Also, people want more information about what the other Fed officials are thinking about tapering.”
Two of those officials weighed in on Monday, and their comments were seen as “adding more weight to the notion that the central bank is getting close to reducing the pace of its monthly asset purchases.” According to an analysis published at Got Gold Report, a more hawkish Fed could ultimately benefit gold and silver, by reversing the up-trend in the equity markets.
As gold was being “monkey-hammered lower” on Monday by “status quo support” for stocks, U.S. stock markets were hitting new highs, before, as USA Today reports, “Wall Street finally suffered a bout of acrophobia.” And USA Gold points out that “If investors start viewing the stock market as ‘frothy,’ equities could correct dramatically even with the tacit promise of continued central bank accommodations.”
And with bitcoin surging as high as $675 on the Tokyo-based Mt. Gox exchange, in advance of Monday’s Senate hearing, Gold Silver Worlds quotes Peter Schiff, who said on CNBC: “I don’t see bitcoins as an alternative to gold. It is not a modern day gold standard. If anything, they are modern-day alchemists but you can not make gold digitally. It is no better than a fiat currency.”
Posted by Investment Rarities on November 15th 2013 in CFTC, China, Gold, India, JPMorgan, Short Sellers, Silver, Ted Butler, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
Despite gaining almost 1.5% on Thursday and Friday, Comex silver futures fell 2.8% for the week, reports MarketWatch, “But analysts and bullion dealers touted strength in physical demand for silver.” The article cites sales of 2013 American Silver Eagles topping 40 million this week to set an annual record, and, MarketWatch‘s latest “Commodities Corner” column, headlined “Silver coin supplies buckle on fever-pitch retail buys.” It quotes BullionVault’s Adrian Ash as saying that “Private investor demand for physical silver in 2013 has been staggering,” and, “Refiners can’t mint enough product and they’re seeing none of it come back for melt.”
Bloomberg: U.S. Mint’s silver coin sales reach annual record
Wall Street Journal: Investors flock to silver coins
Silver Investing News: Silver trades down as Thomson Reuters GFMS predicts higher demand in 2013
Steve St. Angelo: Silver Bears: You have been warned
SilverSeek: Eric Sprott – Silver, silver stocks will go much higher
Posted by Investment Rarities on November 15th 2013 in China, General Economy, Gold, IMF, India, Monetary Policy, Russia, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
Following up on its report that “China could match U.S. gold reserves inside 10 years – or earlier,” Mineweb deploys the above graph to illustrate “gold’s inexorable move east.” It shows the percentage change in investment demand between the first three quarters of 2012 and 2013, and comes from the World Gold Council’s Q3 Demand Trends that was released on Thursday. And in another article based on the WGC’s release, Reuters reports that “China is this year set to usurp India as the world’s biggest gold consumer by a convincing margin as strict import rules introduced by New Delhi bite.”
And detailing the boom in Asian vaults, the Sprott Group’s David Franklin writes that the new facilities “further reflect the enormous increase in the physical precious metals trade and a requirement for secure storage. With these new vaults located in Asia (or now owned by Asians) it would appear the massive amounts of gold being shipped East will not see the inside of a London or Swiss vault ever again.”
Posted by Investment Rarities on November 14th 2013 in Federal Reserve, General Economy, Gold, Janet Yellen, Monetary Policy, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
Comex gold and silver futures both added 1.4% on Thursday following prospective Fed chair Janet Yellen’s Senate Banking Committee testimony. “Yellen’s comments, as well as a decline in U.S. jobless claims that was smaller than expected, reinforced expectations the central bank won’t be in a rush to slow the flow of monetary stimulus to the U.S. economy,” reports MarketWatch.
A Zero Hedge tally of hearing comments by “QEeen Yellen” found that her dovish comments outnumbered hawkish ones by 32 to 18, “but it was her admission late in the Q&A that ‘real’ unemployment is around 10% that perhaps leaves the most room for” continued stimulus.
And “in saying that the benefits of QE are exceeding the costs, she at least put a nail in the coffin of a December taper,” according to a USA Gold commentary, which also notes that “Yellen said she follows gold prices to some extent, calling the yellow metal ‘an asset that people want to hold when they are very fearful about potential financial market catastrophes, or economic troubles and tail risks.’ Interestingly, Yellen appeared to be wearing a gold necklace during her testimony.”
Reuters: Gold up again as Yellen comments support Fed stimulus
BullionVault: “More work“ from U.S. Fed sees gold rally
Bloomberg TV/C-SPAN: Video – Yellen’s Senate testimony in less than two minutes; Yellen’s testimony in more than two hours
Posted by Investment Rarities on November 13th 2013 in China, Federal Reserve, General Economy, India, JPMorgan, Monetary Policy, Short Sellers, Silver, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
As sales of American Silver Eagle bullion coins hit a new record of 40,175,000 ounces this year, besting 2011′s previous record of 39,868,500, Reuters reports that “Silver prices should be underpinned by improving industrial demand in 2014, but they will tumble on gold’s coattails if the U.S. Federal Reserve begins tapering its stimulus,” according to comments by an analyst at Thomson Reuters GFMS metals consultantancy. “Strong investment demand in silver coins and exchange-traded funds, and Indian consumers’ substitution to silver from gold should provide support, said Andrew Leyland, manager of precious metal demand at Thomson Reuters GFMS.”
On Tuesday, Thomson Reuters GFMS released its 2013 Interim Silver Market Report. The Real Asset Co.’s Jan Skoyles analyzes the report, which is also available as a PDF download here.
Posted by Investment Rarities on November 13th 2013 in General Economy, Wall Street | Be the first to comment!
“If this isn’t peak insanity, I do not want to know what is,” writes LibertyBlitzkrieg‘s Mike Krieger, about a MarketWatch report on how individual investors are reaching for yield by doling out subprime loans.
The article, headlined “Want 18% returns? Become a subprime lender,” laments that, “It has come to this. Unable to save enough for retirement with traditional investments, baby boomers in search of yield are becoming their own private Countrywide Financials. They’re loaning cash from their deposit accounts and retirement plans and hoping for a big pay day: specifically large returns that will boost their income and maybe even allow them to pass an inheritance on to their children.”
AP: Feds seek $864 million from BofA over Countrywide loans
PBS: Bank of America liable for Countrywide’s mortgage “hustle” program
Businessweek: The woman behind the men behind the financial crisis